May 1, 2010
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Closing Out, or Not

by Kevin Pelton

Atlanta 83, at Milwaukee 69 (Series tied 3-3)
Pace: 84.0
Offensive Ratings: Atlanta 98.6, Milwaukee 82.3

If Wednesday's run at Philips Arena was in fact the best stretch of Milwaukee Bucks basketball since 1971 (and somewhere, Ray Allen begs to differ), then Friday night's third quarter had to be one of the most painful. Milwaukee, 24 minutes away from winning a series for the first time since 2001 in front of the home fans, scored just 11 points in the period as the Atlanta Hawks used a decisive 19-0 run to send the series back to Atlanta for Game Seven.

Watching the quarter again this morning thanks to My Synergy Sports, nothing enormous jumped out that explained why the Hawks suddenly exploded. While the Bucks' scoreless stretch, which spanned 12 possessions, seems more out of the ordinary, on a night when neither team managed to score a point per possession (and Milwaukee wasn't anywhere close), maybe it was the offensive explosion by Atlanta that was more problematic.

The Hawks did do far more trapping of pick-and-rolls than we're accustomed to seeing from them. There was also something of a zone from them, though I agree with Scott Skiles that Atlanta's defense functioned as a mismatched man-to-man on all but one or two possessions. From the Hawks' perspective, the biggest difference was that they contained the dribble penetration after switches that has broken down their defense. And, as compared to their three straight losses, players simply competed better. Josh Smith was beaten backdoor at one point, but rallied to block the shot. He had another spectacular individual play to steal a Luke Ridnour pass and head the other direction for a three-point play.

Atlanta also actively packed the paint, daring the Bucks to make outside shots. Milwaukee proved unequal to the task. The Bucks aren't a great offensive team, especially absent the threat of Andrew Bogut in the post, so it's not totally stunning to see them go through a stretch like that where they can't throw it in the ocean. When Brandon Jennings (1-of-9 from three) and John Salmons (2-of-13 from the field) aren't hitting, there isn't a whole heck of a lot Skiles can do. Milwaukee has been able to overcome its impotence by working like crazy on defense, and overall Game Six was an excellent defensive effort. It just wasn't enough.

The Hawks' leading scorers were guards Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson, but during the third quarter it was Al Horford who stepped to the forefront. Horford tortured smaller defenders after the Bucks went small in the hope of generating some offense, scoring nine of his 15 points in the period. Horford added 15 rebounds, six of them on the offensive glass.

Having now proven the ability to win on the road in the postseason, Atlanta gets to go home for the winner-take-all Game Seven. The story is the same as it has always been in this series. If the Hawks keep Milwaukee's guards out of the paint and execute, their talent advantage will be too much for the Bucks to overcome. If they let down a little, though, the Bucks are sharp enough to make them pay.

L.A. Lakers 95, at Oklahoma City 94 (L.A. Lakers win series 4-2)
Pace: 88.2
Offensive Ratings: L.A. Lakers 108.6, Oklahoma City 105.7

This was a deciding game worthy of the series it capped, both in terms of drama (granting that the last two games were blowouts either way) and how it went down. As they did throughout this series, the L.A. Lakers won by grinding it out at the defensive end. Despite scoring just 19 points in the fourth quarter, the Lakers hung on to their advantage by making enough stops. Oklahoma City came up empty on all three of their possessions inside the final minute (not counting Russell Westbrook's desperation heave in the final second), giving Pau Gasol the opportunity to win the game and the series with his late tip-in.

For the series, the Thunder's effective field-goal percentage of .426 ranks last among the 16 playoff teams. The Lakers held them below that on Friday night, limiting Oklahoma City to five threes in 19 attempts and 39.4 percent shooting inside the arc. Kevin Durant was able to get to the line 15 times, but he missed 18 of his 23 shot attempts and needed 30 possessions to score 26 points. Russell Westbrook scored 21 points, but Kobe Bryant succeeded in making him a jump shooter, especially down the stretch. Westbrook took seven threes, missing six of them, and it was Westbrook who missed from the perimeter on all three empty possessions in the last two minutes.

The flip side of that is the Lakers' offense wasn't a whole heck of a lot better than during the series as a whole. With Gasol quiet, the Lakers needed Bryant to take over on offense, and he obliged with a solid effort, scoring 32 points on a night where no other Laker had more than 11. It was solid, not spectacular; Bryant turned it over five times (part of 16 turnovers as a team) and forced his two misses in the closing minutes, including the one that led to Gasol's game-winner. Led by Bryant and Derek Fisher, the Lakers did shoot the ball well from deep, making 12 three-pointers. The bench also provided a nice lift, with Shannon Brown scoring 11 points.

After 82 games of the regular season and six in the playoffs, it's long since clear that the Lakers are not going to morph into an elite offensive team, regardless of the talent on hand. Will their defensive-minded style be good enough against a team that can put more points on the board? We'll find out more next round. As for the Thunder, there is certainly no shame in losing a hard-fought six-game series against the defending champs with the youngest rotation in modern playoff history. This was an appetizer for what lies ahead in Oklahoma City, and a delicious one indeed.

at Utah 112, Denver 104 (Utah wins series 4-2)
Pace: 97.5
Offensive Ratings: Utah 112.8, Denver 108.8

The revealing stretch of this game started at the 6:33 mark, when Carmelo Anthony tied the game with his second jumper in as many possessions. Over the next two-plus minus, the Utah Jazz scored 11 unanswered points while the Denver Nuggets melted down in a display emblematic of their lack of leadership, discipline and defense since his battle with cancer forced George Karl to leave the team in the hands of Adrian Dantley. Utah scored on all five of its possessions, drawing four fouls and adding an extra point on a technical foul shot. Kenyon Martin and Chauncey Billups were both T'd up during the run, two of the fourth technicals Denver received during the game.

The free throw numbers from this game look like a misprint. The spreadsheet I use to generate these single-game ratings includes the Four Factors, and I'm not sure I've ever seen a FTA/FGA ratio as high as the Jazz's .739--51 free throw attempts and 69 tries from the field. The Nuggets shot 40 free throws themselves, though neither side helped its cause with accuracy at the charity stripe, Denver shooting 67.5 percent and Utah 66.7 percent.

In the absence of injured Nuggets center Nenê, Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap had their way in the paint. Boozer shot 10-of-14 from the field in scoring 22 points, adding 20 rebounds. The Jazz was +24 with Millsap in the game off the bench, as he added 21 points on 7-of-11 shooting and 11 rebounds. Denver went small much of the game, playing centers Johan Petro and Chris Andersen a total of 27 minutes. Joey Graham gave the Nuggets a surprising lift as part of those smallball lineups, scoring 21 points and grabbing 10 rebounds, but he fouled out after 25 minutes of trying to contend with bigger players at the defensive end of the floor.

Utah deserves all the credit in the world for how it dealt with playing short-handed in this series, but really it's an extension of what the Jazz has done all year and throughout Jerry Sloan's tenure. Consider that several big plays during the decisive run were provided by Wesley Matthews, who was undrafted 10 months ago but is starting and playing huge minutes in this series. Matthews capably defended first Billups and then slid over to Anthony when C.J. Miles got in foul trouble, and he scored 23 points, shooting 13-of-15 from the line. That's a testament both to Matthews' underrated skills and Sloan's willingness to trust a youngster and put him in a role and a system in which he could thrive.

There's been a lot of talk this week about whether Brandon Jennings would win a re-vote for Rookie of the Year. What about coaching honors? My choice (Skiles) has acquitted himself nicely, and Scott Brooks' defensive schemes were as sound as ever against the Lakers, but has anybody done a better job of coaching during the postseason than Jerry Sloan? With the Nuggets badly missing Karl, whom we can only hope is completely healthy and back on the bench by the time they return to action next fall, this series proved to be a testament to the value of coaching.

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Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.