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On the eve of the 2010-11 season, Basketball Prospectus offers the final update to the SCHOENE projections originally found in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010-11. These standings factor in the most recent estimates of injuries and playing time and utilize Bradford Doolittle's simulator (run 1,000 times) to account for the variability in projections. The percentages shown reflect the frequency with which each team won its division, a conference title and an NBA championship.
East Playoffs Win% W L Play Con NBA ORating DRating
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Miami .709 58.2 23.8 1.000 .534 .373 113.3 (5) 106.3 (1)
Orlando .652 53.5 28.5 1.000 .268 .148 112.6 (7) 107.7 (5)
Chicago .605 49.6 32.4 .997 .110 .043 110.6 (13) 107.5 (3)
New York .538 44.1 37.9 .930 .031 .010 113.7 (4) 112.5 (29)
Boston .528 43.3 38.7 .900 .023 .010 109.3 (21) 108.7 (10)
Milwaukee .517 42.4 39.6 .855 .021 .006 108.7 (22) 108.2 (9)
New Jersey .498 40.9 41.1 .766 .006 .000 110.4 (15) 110.8 (20)
Cleveland .489 40.1 41.9 .699 .005 .000 110.0 (17) 110.6 (19)
In the book, we had the Heat with 60 wins. The loss of Mike Miller for at least the first two months of the season and the addition of Jerry Stackhouse explain the drop, which puts Miami below last year's projection for Cleveland (59.7 wins) and Orlando (59.4). The Heat is the clear favorite, reflected by far and away the league's best chances of winning a championship, but the difference is not nearly large enough to start sizing up championship rings just now. Miami did have a 71-win season in one of the runs.
Even though SCHOENE is hardly enamored of the bottom playoff teams in the Eastern Conference, all of them made the playoffs in at least 70 percent of the simulations (rounding ever so slightly in Cleveland's case) because of the four-game gap between the eighth team and the ninth team.
East Lottery Win% W L Play Con NBA ORating DRating
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Atlanta .439 36.0 46.0 .298 .001 .000 107.1 (24) 109.5 (14)
Toronto .437 35.8 46.2 .289 .000 .000 111.1 (10) 113.3 (30)
Philadelphia .412 33.8 48.2 .132 .000 .000 105.4 (28) 108.9 (11)
Charlotte .402 33.0 49.0 .095 .001 .000 104.3 (29) 108.2 (7)
Indiana .379 31.1 50.9 .037 .000 .000 106.3 (25) 110.4 (18)
Detroit .319 26.1 55.9 .002 .000 .000 105.6 (27) 112.2 (27)
Washington .282 23.1 58.9 .000 .000 .000 102.0 (30) 109.6 (16)
The Wizards are one of two teams (the L.A. Clippers are the other) who did not make the playoffs in any of the simulations.
West Playoffs Win% W L Play Con NBA ORating DRating
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Portland .670 55.0 27.0 .995 .354 .175 114.0 (1) 107.7 (4)
Denver .601 49.3 32.7 .950 .135 .053 113.8 (2) 110.3 (17)
San Antonio .598 49.0 33.0 .938 .132 .054 113.2 (6) 109.5 (15)
Golden State .589 48.3 33.7 .897 .086 .031 112.3 (9) 109.1 (12)
Oklahoma City .588 48.2 33.8 .921 .093 .033 110.0 (18) 106.8 (2)
Dallas .575 47.2 34.8 .866 .078 .025 110.7 (12) 107.8 (6)
New Orleans .571 46.8 35.2 .813 .068 .024 113.8 (3) 111.0 (21)
L.A. Lakers .551 45.2 36.8 .687 .034 .011 110.2 (16) 108.2 (8)
It is safe to say these are the only projections you will read that feature Portland-Denver-San Antonio-Golden State as the top four in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are perhaps the most difficult team to project. Even after accounting for a more pessimistic assessment of Kenyon Martin's timeline for returning from knee surgery, Denver looks like a contender in the Western Conference (that's a group that goes at least eight deep). However, plenty of experts have the Nuggets finishing out of the playoffs. If Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups are both traded for young players, that is perfectly reasonable. So we really need two Denver projections--one for calling Anthony's bluff and another for blowing things up.
West Lottery Win% W L Play Con NBA ORating DRating
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Sacramento .521 42.7 39.3 .468 .013 .004 112.4 (8) 111.4 (23)
Utah .490 40.2 41.8 .234 .004 .000 109.5 (20) 109.4 (13)
Memphis .470 38.6 43.4 .141 .002 .000 110.5 (14) 111.3 (22)
Phoenix .443 36.3 45.7 .049 .001 .000 110.8 (11) 112.3 (28)
Houston .437 35.8 46.2 .040 .000 .000 109.9 (19) 111.7 (25)
Minnesota .363 29.8 52.2 .001 .000 .000 107.6 (23) 111.7 (24)
L.A. Clippers .325 26.6 55.4 .000 .000 .000 106.1 (26) 111.9 (26)
The top-to-bottom superiority of the Western Conference is one of SCHOENE's more interesting projections. The East had two of the top three picks and made more noise in free agency, yet the projections indicate that it is the West that improved over the summer. Sacramento and Utah would both be playoff teams in the Eastern Conference by these projections.
It is worth noting, as we consider the value of preseason performance, that Memphis and Utah joined Orlando as the NBA's lone unbeaten teams during the exhibition season.
The 2010-11 Pro Basketball Prospectus is now available in paperback form on Amazon.com. For sample chapters and more information, see our book page.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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