October 28, 2010
PBP Roundup
Games of Oct. 27, 2010

by Bradford Doolittle

The first full slate of the NBA season unfolded on Wednesday, a night marked by the regular-season debuts of new some faces and some old faces in new places. This is the second installment of this new feature, which will run Monday through Friday each week, with the Monday edition serving as a weekend wrap. The intent will be to get this up relatively early in the morning, a goal that will be met somewhat consistently depending on a slew of work and life factors. The first two days have been filled with a prodigious amount of spreadsheet wrestling as I whip NBAPET into shape to accept 2010-11 results. Every year, I tack on new functions to the system, streamline others, integrate one spreadsheet application with another, drop functions that have lapsed into obsolecense. The by-product of these systemic upgrades are a wave of unforeseen bugs, and I've spent the better part of the last couple of days ironing these out. However, the goal will be to get this feature up by mid-morning each day.

TODAY AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS

1. Kevin Pelton shares his major observations from Wednesday, touching upon one of these aforementioned debuts..

CAVALIERS 95, CELTICS 87 (box): 102710: One thing we can say about the Cavs' win over Boston: Cleveland has a lot of speed on its roster, and against a veteran Celtics team on the back end of a back-to-back, that was a huge factor. The easy storyline is that the Cavs couldn't beat Boston with LeBron, but managed to beat the Celts without him. It's baloney of course, but the Cavs still have enough talent to compete.

BOS                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   CLE                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
rondo,rajon           74   16  -4  23.3   hollins,ryan          30    7  +1  19.9
davis,glen            63   10  -9  12.7   parker,anthony        67   13  +2  15.1
pierce,paul           64   15  -9  12.7   hickson,j.j.          57   13  +6  14.6
allen,ray             68   15  -1  12.6   gibson,daniel         52   17  +11 14.1
garnett,kevin         56   12  +6  11.9   varejao,anderson      62    5  +7  12.8
robinson,nate         23    9  -9   8.5   moon,jamario          56    8  +3  12.6
o'neal,shaquille      40    6  -4   7.0   sessions,ramon        66   18  +6   9.9
daniels,marquis       35    4  -5   5.5   jamison,antawn        40    6  +0   3.6
o'neal,jermaine       24    5  -6   0.4   williams,jawad        29    5  +4   0.8
wafer,von             13    1  +1   0.0   graham,joey---DNP
erden,semih---DNP                         harris,manny---DNP
west,delonte---DNP                        powe,leon---DNP
celtics,boston        92   92  -8  94.7   cavaliers,cleveland   92   92  +8 103.4

---

NETS 101, PISTONS 98 (box): Anthony Morrow's three-pointer with :26.0 left put the Nets up for good, then Charlie Villanueva and Rodney Stuckey each missed threes in the final seconds that could have tied the game. After a shaky preseason, Nets rookie Derrick Favors enjoyed a nice debut, with eight points on five shots and 10 rebounds in 20 minutes. The Nets didn't win their first game until Dec. 4 last season.

DET                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   NJN                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
stuckey,rodney        55   11  -5  17.5   harris,devin          57   19  +6  26.3
hamilton,richard      59   13  -12 14.9   lopez,brook           69   21  +6  24.2
villanueva,charlie    42   10  +11 14.8   morrow,anthony        69    9  +6  14.0
prince,tayshaun       58   11  -5  12.5   farmar,jordan         41    9  +5  13.9
gordon,ben            43    8  -7  11.8   williams,terrence     60   10  +14 12.2
maxiell,jason         38   11  +8  11.2   favors,derrick        37    7  -6   9.7
bynum,will            35   10  +2  11.0   humphries,kris        34    1  -6   4.7
wallace,ben           50    6  -12  8.7   outlaw,travis         40    8  -5   4.3
daye,austin           39    7  -4   4.3   petro,johan           17    2   0   2.6
mcgrady,tracy         26    2  +9   3.2   james,damion           7    3  -2   1.4
monroe,greg---DNP                         smith,joe             10    1  -1   0.0
summers,dajuan---DNP                      james,damion---DNP
pistons,detroit       89   89  -3 109.9   nets,newjersey        89   89  +3 113.3

---

HEAT 97, 76ERS 87 (box): Miami led by as many as 26, then held off a late Sixers rally. Philly closed within eight with about a minute to play and outscored the Heat 33-17 in the fourth quarter. Sixers rookie Evan Turner scored 10 points on 5-of-5 shooting in the last period and 16 points, seven boards and four assists in 30 minutes in his first NBA game. LeBron James has committed 17 turnovers in his first two games with the Heat.

MIA                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   PHI                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
wade,dwyane           67   25  +9  30.9   williams,lou          64   16  +7  26.0
jones,james           56    9  -3  21.7   turner,evan           58   12  +5  16.0
james,lebron          72   22  +6  20.4   young,thaddeus        49    9  -8  12.9
bosh,chris            75   14  +25 15.3   brand,elton           65   10  -9  10.0
arroyo,carlos         54    9  +17  6.7   iguodala,andre        74   12  -19  9.7
ilgauskas,zydrunas    17    3  +6   4.3   nocioni,andres        38    9  +5   8.6
house,eddie           41    2  -10  4.3   holiday,jrue          41   13  -8   8.5
stackhouse,jerry      10    2  +1   2.6   kapono,jason          25    4  -6   2.6
anthony,joel          34    1  +8   0.0   hawes,spencer         27    2  -11  0.6
stackhouse,jerry---DNP                    speights,marreese      7    4  -1   0.3
howard,juwan---DNP                        songaila,darius        9    1  -5   0.0
chalmers,mario---DNP                      battie,tony---DNP
heat,miami            91   91 +10 106.1   76ers,philadelphia    91   91  -10 95.2

---

KNICKS 98, RAPTORS 93 (box): Wilson Chandler shot early and often off the bench, scoring 22 points in 29 minutes for the Knicks. Russian rookie Timofey Mozgov started his first game at center for New York, but was limited to seven minutes because of the type of foul trouble that is likely to plague him all season.

NYK                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   TOR                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
chandler,wilson       59   17  +0  20.8   bargnani,andrea       72   22  +1  19.2
stoudemire,amare      73   26  +2  18.5   jack,jarrett          62   17  +2  18.0
felton,raymond        75   16  +2  18.0   barbosa,leandro       50   14  -10 11.8
gallinari,danilo      67    9  -3  12.6   kleiza,linas          55   13  -3  10.7
fields,landry         61    6  +6  11.9   derozan,demar         53    9  +4   8.4
turiaf,ronny          47    4  +7   8.8   calderon,jose         36    9  -9   8.2
douglas,toney         54    9  +4   7.8   andersen,david        26    5  -4   7.9
mason,roger           14    3  +3   2.0   weems,sonny           40    6  -1   5.7
walker,bill           21    6  +3   0.1   evans,reggie          67    0   0   4.6
mozgov,timofey        15    2  +1   0.0   johnson,amir          26    1  -5   0.9
rautins,andy---DNP                        dorsey,joey---DNP
williams,shelden---DNP                    wright,julian---DNP
knicks,newyork        97   97  +5 100.6   raptors,toronto       97   97  -5  95.4

---

HAWKS 119, GRIZZLIES 104 (box): Six players hit double digits as the Hawks cruised in an efficient debut for Larry Drew's new-look offense in Atlanta. Memphis point guard Mike Conley, entering a pivotal season in his young career, had 23 points on 15 shots, five boards and eight assists.

ATL                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   MEM                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
johnson,joe           62   21  +7  23.7   conley,mike           73   16  -1  26.7
bibby,mike            55    9  +5  20.0   gay,rudy              62   17  -10 22.0
pachulia,zaza         60   11  +13 16.6   young,sam             53   13  -4  19.1
williams,marvin       63    8  +10 13.8   arthur,darrell        62   13  -9  15.0
smith,josh            50   12  +7  13.4   mayo,o.j.             68    9  -3   8.1
crawford,jamal        51   13  +12 12.8   henry,xavier          29    2  +2   5.4
powell,josh           40    8  +4   7.9   randolph,zach         31    6  -9   3.7
teague,jeff           32    6  +10  5.6   carroll,demarre       13    2  +3   2.6
evans,maurice         29    2  +8   5.4   law,acie              24    7  -14  2.5
horford,al            36    6  +2   3.6   thabeet,hasheem       38    5  -18  1.1
crawford,jordan        4    1  -3   0.3   haddadi,hamed          9    1  +5   1.1
collins,jason---DNP                       allen,tony            22    6  -17  0.3
hawks,atlanta         97   97 +15 123.0   grizzlies,memphis     97   97 -15 107.5

---

KINGS 117, TIMBERWOLVES 116 (box): Wayne Ellington missed a three-pointer with :00.9 to play that could have tied the game for the Timberwolves. Sacramento's Francisco Garcia scored 22 points in place of Tyreke Evans, who sat out because of a league suspension handed down as punishment for his conviction for reckless driving.

SAC                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   MIN                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
garcia,francisco      71   15  +5  21.8   ridnour,luke          67   15   0  21.1
landry,carl           77   20  +1  21.2   telfair,sebastian     34   12  -1  16.3
udrih,beno            82   15  +3  18.1   tolliver,anthony      60   10  +6  15.7
cousins,demarcus      56   12  +18 14.5   beasley,michael       72   17  -3  15.6
head,luther           42    7  -1  13.6   love,kevin            50   13  -2  13.1
casspi,omri           43    7  +4   9.0   johnson,wesley        38   11  +14 11.0
greene,donte          56    9  -3   7.9   ellington,wayne       60    9  -4   6.9
thompson,jason        40    9  -4   6.7   milicic,darko         49    6  +2   6.3
jackson,darnell       25    3  -9   1.8   pekovic,nikola        25    3  -2   3.7
jeter,pooh             8    2  -5   1.5   koufos,kosta          18    3  -6   3.3
whiteside,hassan       4    1  -4   0.0   brewer,corey          32    1  -9   2.2
evans,tyreke---DNP                        hayward,lazar---DNP
kings,sacramento     101  101  +1 116.1   timberwolves,minn    101  101  -1 115.1

---

HORNETS 95, BUCKS 91 (box): Andrew Bogut had 15 points and 15 rebounds for Milwaukee in his first games since the nasty fall last spring that fractured his elbow and ended his season. However, Bogut's shot still looks shaky. He went 3-of-10 from the line, crucial misses in a close game. Emeka Okafor may be morphing into an ultra low-usage center. He didn't attempt a shot or a free throw in 26 minutes.

MIL                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   NWO                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
delfino,carlos        72   11  +8  22.6   paul,chris            70   13  +11 27.0
jennings,brandon      78   15  -1  20.9   west,david            51   14  -2  18.9
bogut,andrew          68   16  -2  16.9   belinelli,marco       67   16  +5  18.5
gooden,drew           61   14  -6  15.5   ariza,trevor          78   14  +6  14.1
maggette,corey        37   13  -5  13.6   smith,jason           46   12   0   7.3
salmons,john          61   11  -9   5.0   thornton,marcus       21    7  +6   6.9
ilyasova,ersan        30    5  -17  3.5   green,willie          23    5  +2   4.1
boykins,earl           4    1   0   1.7   stojakovic,peja       14    2  +3   3.3
sanders,larry          8    2  +11  1.0   bayless,jerryd        15    5  -5   3.1
dooling,keyon         32    2  +1   0.0   okafor,emeka          48    0  +1   1.4
brockman,jon---DNP                        mensahbonsu,pops       5    1  -8   0.7
mbahamoute,luc---DNP                      ilungambenga,didier   13    2  +1   0.0
bucks,milwaukee       90   90  -4 100.8   hornets,neworleans    90   90  +4 105.2

---

THUNDER 106, BULLS 95 (box): This was a close and exciting game until the Thunder pulled away late. As young and athletic as the Bulls' roster may be, Oklahoma City's athleticism looked like it was on a whole different level. The Bulls are apparently still figuring out their offense, because it's doubtful that the plan is to have Derrick Rose take a shot a minute, as he did on Wednesday. Rose scored 28 points on 31 shots in 31 minutes.

CHI                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   OKC                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
rose,derrick          64   31  -1  25.2   westbrook,russell     71   22  +3  28.3
noah,joakim           79   14  -3  20.4   durant,kevin          84   33  +15 27.4
gibson,taj            69   12  -7  15.9   green,jeff            82   20  +4  18.5
deng,luol             75   16  -11 10.0   maynor,eric           27    4  +8   8.5
watson,c.j.           34    9  -10  8.2   ibaka,serge           65    6  +20  8.2
bogans,keith          73    3  +6   7.6   harden,james          41    5  +4   7.4
korver,kyle           32    4  -8   4.7   sefolosha,thabo       51    3  +7   5.8
brewer,ronnie         31    6  -12  3.0   krstic,nenad          33    2  -9   2.2
scalabrine,brian      22    0  -1   1.9   cook,daequan          36    3  +3   1.9
thomas,kurt            6    1  -6   0.0   aldrich,cole---DNP
scalabrine,brian---DNP                    ivey,royal---DNP
johnson,james---DNP                       white,d.j.---DNP
bulls,chicago         98   98  -11 96.8   thunder,oklahomacity  98   98 +11 108.1

---

MAVERICKS 101, BOBCATS 86 (box): Big improvment for the Bobcats, who scored just 59 points in a season-opening loss at Boston last season. Jason Kidd had 18 assists for the Mavericks.

CHA                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   DAL                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
thomas,tyrus          57   17  +10  18.2  nowitzki,dirk         69   16  +27 24.4
wallace,gerald        82   19  -16  16.7  kidd,jason            60    8  +30 24.2
jackson,stephen       57   11  -20  16.0  terry,jason           67   17  +29 23.8
diaw,boris            67   12  -19  14.4  butler,caron          64   19  +25 13.0
augustin,d.j.         77   10  -21  11.5  barea,jose            38   12  -19  8.0
mohammed,nazr         34   11  -26   9.3  chandler,tyson        44    5  +15  7.6
brown,derrick         24    1  +2    3.5  marion,shawn          49    8  -24  6.3
hendersonjr,gerald    31    4  +14   3.2  haywood,brendan       39    2   0   2.0
livingston,shaun      27    4  +3    1.8  jones,dominique       17    3  -10  1.5
diop,desagana          0    0  -2    0.0  mahinmi,ian            5    1   0   0.3
carroll,matt---DNP                        cardinal,brian         4    1  +2   0.0
collins,sherron---DNP                     stevenson,deshawn---DNP
bobcats,charlotte     91   91  -15  94.6  mavericks,dallas      91   91 +15 111.0

---

SPURS 122, PACERS 109 (box): Yawn. The Spurs' big three combined for 65 points as San Antonio pulled away in the fourth quarter. The Pacers, a team seeking an identity of their own, may have a clear pecking order emerging. Danny Granger, Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert combined for 73 points and took 49 of Indiana's 77 shots.

IND                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   SAS                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
hibbert,roy           69   21  -6  25.2   ginobili,manu         66   17  +7  23.0
granger,danny         77   23  -9  24.4   duncan,tim            68   13  +13 23.0
collison,darren       67   16  -13 20.2   parker,tony           79   20  +15 21.9
mcroberts,josh        50    7  -4  11.1   hill,george           57   12  +11 14.8
ford,t.j.             36    7  -8   9.1   jefferson,richard     44   10  +7  13.0
dunleavy jr.,mike     71   10  -8   8.9   blair,dejuan          42   11  -5   9.3
george,paul           47    8  -1   5.5   anderson,james        56    8  +6   8.6
posey,james           50    5  -9   4.0   mcdyess,antonio       39    3  +10  5.5
jones,solomon         30    2  -7   1.2   bonner,matt           29    2  +1   3.0
foster,jeff---DNP                         simmons,bobby         13    2  +6   0.4
hansbrough,tyler---DNP                    neal,gary              2    1  -3   0.3
rush,brandon---DNP                        temple,garrett         2    1  -3   0.0
pacers,indiana       99    99 -13 109.6   spurs,sanantonio      99   99 +13 122.7

---

NUGGETS 110, JAZZ 88 (box): Rumors of Arron Afflalo's improvement may be founded, at least for one game. Afflalo scored 22 points on 11 shots as the Nuggets blew out to a big lead and cruised. Shelden Williams started at power forward and grabbed 16 rebounds in his first game for Denver.

UTA                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   DEN                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
williams,deron        56   17  -12 18.0   afflalo,arron         70   10  +19 22.4
millsap,paul          55   11  -15 15.4   anthony,carmelo       73   21  +18 21.2
bell,raja             59   10  -1  11.9   billups,chauncey      57   12  +22 17.1
evans,jeremy          23    6  +2   8.7   harrington,al         48   13  +4  11.4
hayward,gordon        42   13  -8   7.7   hilario,nenę          47   10  +11 11.2
jefferson,al          62    6  -17  6.6   lawson,ty             49    7  +6  10.0
elson,francisco       31    6  -5   6.3   williams,shelden      56   14  +11  9.9
watson,earl           40   10  -6   6.0   smith,j.r.            46    6  +11  4.7
kirilenko,andrei      39    8  -13  3.6   forbes,gary           11    2   0   3.8
fesenko,kyrylo        23    3  -9   3.0   ely,melvin            21    1  +10  1.9
miles,c.j.            28    5  -6   1.9   balkman,renaldo        6    1  -2   0.0
price,ronnie          27    2  -8   1.7   carter,anthony---DNP
jazz,utah             97   97  -22 90.8   nuggets,denver        97   97 +22 113.5

---

WARRIORS 132, ROCKETS 128 (box): The score may look like a Don Nelson game, but in fact the Warriors held their own on the boards and held the Rockets under 50 percent shooting from the field and 4-of-16 from three-point range. The Rockets hung in thanks to a 52-26 edge in free-throw attempts. Yao Ming sat out for Houston as part of the plan to have him avoid back-to-back games.

HOU                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   GSW                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
scola,luis            85   26  -10 33.5   ellis,monta           89   27  +9  39.5
martin,kevin          79   19  -6  25.6   curry,stephen         88   20  +4  36.3
hayes,chuck           88   13  -7  18.3   lee,david             89   14  +10 17.8
brooks,aaron          81   17  -2  16.7   wright,dorell         81   13  +10 14.2
lee,courtney          51    5  -2   8.9   carney,rodney         38    7  -12  8.1
jeffries,jared        35    5  +6   8.6   biedrins,andris       60    4  +10  6.6
budinger,chase        45    6  +5   6.9   williams,reggie       37    5  -8   5.1
battier,shane         51    3  -3   6.8   wright,brandan        24    4   0   3.4
smith,ishmael         19    4   0   2.3   radmanovic,vladimir   14    3  -1   1.4
miller,brad            7    1  -1   1.5   gadzuric,dan           2    1  -2   1.0
hill,jordan---DNP                         adrien,jeff            2    1  +3   0.0
taylor,jermaine---DNP                     bell,charlie---DNP
rockets,houston       99   99  -4 129.2   warriors,goldenstate  99   99  +4 133.3

---

TRAIL BLAZERS 98, CLIPPERS 88 (box): This was a game that was all about retrieving your own misses. The Blazers chased down 21 of 48 misses, while Blake Griffin snared nine offensive boards in his NBA regular-season debut. Marcus Camby (twice) and Drew Gooden had 10 offensive boards in a game last season for the Clippers' season high.

POR                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR   LAC                  PLY  POSS +/-   GR
roy,brandon           73   23  +12 23.6   gordon,eric           66   20  -1  20.8
aldridge,lamarcus     60   18  +13 19.2   butler,rasual         54    7  +5  16.3
batum,nicolas         59    4  +13 18.7   griffin,blake         71   15  -9  16.1
miller,andre          67   15  +19 18.5   foye,randy            41    4  -2  11.9
camby,marcus          69   11  +15 14.6   kaman,chris           66   17  -15 11.7
fernandez,rudy        30    7  -2   8.2   davis,baron           60   14  -9  10.6
matthews,wesley       32    7  -4   4.3   gomes,ryan            52    4  -17  4.9
oberto,fabricio       19    2  -10  2.4   collins,jarron        12    2  +4   3.8
cunningham,dante      27    1  -5   1.3   jordan,deandre        17    2  -4   3.5
johnson,armon          5    1  -1   0.0   bledsoe,eric           1    1  -1   0.0
babbitt,luke---DNP                        aminu,alfarouq---DNP
mills,patrick---DNP                       cook,brian---DNP
trailblazers,portland 88   88 +10 110.8   clippers,losangeles   88   88  -10 99.5

---

PLY is an estimate of how many possessions on which the player was on the court. POSS is an estimate of possessions a player used. Plus-Minus (+/-) data is from official box scores from NBA.com. Game Rating (GR) reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.

HARDCOURT NEWS

Minutiae around the league

SPURS: "Spurs forward/center Matt Bonner underwent an MRI earlier today after injuring his right ankle in last night’s game vs. Indiana. The MRI confirmed Bonner suffered Grade 2 right ankle sprain. He is expected to be out of action for 10-14 days." (press release)
That should mean even more minutes for DeJuan Blair, who started last night, as well as Bobby Simmons.

GRIZZLIES: "The Memphis Grizzlies exercised the fourth-year contract options on guard O.J. Mayo and forward Darrell Arthur and the third-year option on center Hasheem Thabeet, Grizzlies General Manager and Vice President of Basketball Operations Chris Wallace announced today. All three players are now guaranteed through the 2011-12 season." (press release)
Apparently the Grizzlies haven't given up on Thabeet, but the booing fans in Memphis last night apparently have. Meanwhile, Arthur scored a career-high 19 points as he started in place of the injured Marc Gasol.

TIMBERWOLVES: "According to a league source, the Timberwolves have asked the NBA to look into whether Portland knowingly traded them an injured player when the Blazers dealt Martell Webster to Minnesota for the 16th overall pick in last summer's draft. Webster on Monday underwent surgery to repair a disk in his back and is expected to miss about six weeks. He said the injury dates to last spring's playoffs, when he was undercut and fell hard in a game against Phoenix" (Minneapolis Star-Tribune)
Wouldn't he have had to pass a physical?

FAB FIVE

A selection of our favorite NBA links

1. A look at how the Wizards use, or don't use, quantitative analysis in their decision making.

2. Hey, Kuester, with all the debuts the last two nights, we have to wonder where was Greg Monroe?

3. Cool. James Naismith's original rules of basketball are up for auction. Rule number one: Eat the peaches before hanging the basket on the wall.

4. A look at how rapidly-improving Indiana center Roy Hibbert is developing his game.

5. Kurt Rambis explains why Kevin Love sat down the stretch of a one-point game last night. Uh, yeah, I'm not buying it.

SKED & LINES

Games on tap for tonight, along with NBAPET game forecasts

Through Wednesday, 16 of 1,230 regular-season games (1.3 percent) have been played.

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You can order a copy of Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010-11 here.

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