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November 19, 2010
PBP Roundup
Weekend Edition #4

by Bradford Doolittle

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Last week, after the Warriors-Bulls game in Chicago, I jokingly Tweeted that if I turned up sick, I was going to blame Golden State's Stephen Curry, who was sneezing and sniffling in the locker room after the game, including one particulary wet sneeze that launched a mist in my general direction and, I'm pretty sure, coated my new microphone. Well, I've been sick all week. I can't blame it all on Curry. After all, he didn't force me to sit in the cold rain for four hours last Saturday, watching Notre Dame manhandle Utah in South Bend, Ind. But you don't necessarily get sick from being cold. You get sick because of other people. As a freelance writer, I happily limit my exposure to those types, but I can't stay in my apartment all the time. I've often wondered how often plague-stricken media members carry their maladies into locker rooms and spread stamina-killing germs. I never really thought of the other side of the coin. Until now. Thanks Steph. Have a great weekend, everyone.

LIVE AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS

1. Kevin Pelton has some early thoughts about college basketball in the Northwest.

2. Kyle Whelliston took note of three mid-major close calls from college basketball's first full week. (Unfiltered)

3. On the Beat, defense is fueling fast starts, DeMarcus Cousins is getting testy and the Grizzlies are circling the wagons. (premium)

4. Presbyterian nearly toppled mighty Kansas State on Thursday. (Unfiltered)

5. Have a question about Greg Oden's latest injury? Kevin Pelton has the answer. (free article)

6. There are several new coaches in the Big East this season. John Gasaway evaluates their various challenges. (premium)

7. Does heavy roster turnover mean slow starts? Kevin Pelton examines. (premium)

8. Kevin Pelton says the Suns will become more extreme during Robin Lopez's absence. (Unfiltered)

9. College Basketball Prospectus 2010-11 is now available on Amazon.

10. John Gasaway has your guide for ESPN's 24 hours of hoops. (premium)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOT FIVES

POWER RATING (POW)        GR (11/17/10)            WP82 -- ALL          WP82 -- ROOKIES
hornets,neworleans, 71.2  aldridge,lamarcus, 33.9  williams,deron, 24.7 griffin,blake, 10.0
celtics,boston, 65.5      nelson,jameer, 25.7      bryant,kobe, 22.8    wall,john, 9.6
heat,miami, 60.9          granger,danny, 22.8      gay,rudy, 22.5       bledsoe,eric, 6.5
lakers,losangeles, 54.7   hibbert,roy, 22.5        gasol,pau, 21.0      turner,evan, 3.6
bulls,chicago, 51.6       griffin,blake, 20.0      james,lebron, 21.0   johnson,wesley, 3.5
Note: GR leaders are from previous night only.

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THURSDAY'S BOX SCORES & RECAPS

NOTE: Glossary is at bottom of page.

PACERS 107, CLIPPERS 80 (box): The Pacers have enjoyed two recent blowouts and currently sport the Eastern Conference's fourth-best average point differential. Brandon Rush started at two-guard for Indiana. We've written how Rush's athletic indicators have fallen short of his actual physical ability. (He was scored as a -3 athlete in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010-11.) Rush still was perimeter-oriented on Thursday, taking five of his seven shots from three-point range--hitting four--but he also chipped in with five rebounds, two steals and matched his career-high with five blocked shots. If Rush can stay consistent and add some free-throw attempts to the mix, his ATH rating might finally align with his physical attributes.

LAC (1-12)           PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   IND (5-5)           PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
griffin,blake         61%  23%  0.83  -10 20.0   granger,danny        71%  24%  1.51  +21 22.8
gordon,eric           63%  34%  0.80  -12 12.4   hibbert,roy          64%  30%  0.95  +16 22.5
bledsoe,eric          68%  12%  1.50  -18 10.7   posey,james          38%  18%  1.99  +23 16.9
warren,willie         14%  33%  1.26    0 10.0   rush,brandon         57%  20%  1.46  +18 14.3
cook,brian            40%  22%  1.08  -14  9.9   price,a.j.           45%  24%  1.58  +16 12.1
aminu,alfarouq        58%  22%  0.89  - 5  8.9   ford,t.j.            55%  25%  0.89  +11  9.6
smith,craig           27%  16%  1.04  -15  5.8   hansbrough,tyler     42%  11%  1.60  +10  6.6
foye,randy            28%  23%  0.66  -15  4.0   george,paul          34%  15%  0.74  + 3  4.8
butler,rasual         42%   9%  0.56  -15  3.7   foster,jeff          26%   6%  1.67  + 9  3.7
gomes,ryan            39%  10%  0.40  -18  1.2   mcroberts,josh       50%   9%  0.76  + 2  3.1
jordan,deandre        49%  14%  0.05  - 6  0.4   jones,dahntay        18%  15%  0.21  + 6  0.3
collins,jarron        11%  16%  0.00  - 7  0.0   jones,solomon (DNP)
PACE: 91.8           ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 91.8          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
clippers,losangeles  87.1 .346  .241 .131 .158   pacers,indiana     116.5 .597  .171 .185 .096

---

MAGIC 105, SUNS 89 (box): With Steve Nash out of the lineup and the Suns playing for the second night in a row, this one was non-competitive. Phoenix did get a look at little-used Earl Clark, who had 12 points and six boards in 16 minutes.

PHX (6-6)           PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   ORL (8-3)           PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
dudley,jared         49%  18%  1.30  +10 16.8   nelson,jameer        58%  13%  2.97  +13 25.7
clark,earl           32%  34%  1.21  +12 15.0   carter,vince         52%  22%  1.09  +17 18.8
hill,grant           64%  17%  1.52  -30 13.6   lewis,rashard        71%  17%  1.00  +11 18.6
frye,channing        53%  14%  1.46  -20 11.1   howard,dwight        62%  25%  1.36  +23 14.6
dragic,goran         56%  31%  0.74  -26 10.8   richardson,quentin   49%  22%  1.71  +21 12.9
warrick,hakim        40%  19%  0.75  + 9  9.7   bass,brandon         41%  18%  0.79  + 9  7.6
richardson,jason     51%  19%  0.73  -26  8.3   pietrus,mickael      63%  11%  1.56  +10  7.1
childress,josh       42%  19%  0.77  +14  6.8   duhon,chris          42%  21%  0.67  + 3  5.3
turkoglu,hedo        59%  20%  0.44  -23  5.9   anderson,ryan        19%  37%  0.75  - 8  4.9
barron,earl          32%   7%  1.21  +12  3.1   gortat,marcin        34%  23%  0.57  -12  4.8
siler,garret         22%  13%  0.63  -12  2.6   allen,malik           9%  22%  1.25  - 7  2.2
nash,steve (DNP)                                williams,jason (DNP)
PACE: 85.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 85.7          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
suns,phoenix       103.8 .478  .294 .210 .169   magic,orlando      122.5 .608  .351 .198 .118

---

TRAIL BLAZERS 86, NUGGETS 83 (box): Chauncey Billups and Arron Afflalo both missed three-pointers in the waning seconds, the latter's attempt blocked by Portland's Wesley Matthews at the buzzer. Portland dominated the glass to eke out the win, grabbing 16-of-44 on the offensive glass and outscoring Denver 17-2 on second-chance points. LaMarcus Aldridge led the way with 24 points and 10 rebounds, seven on the offensive end.

DEN (6-6)           PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   POR (8-5)           PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
anthony,carmelo      72%  33%  0.82  - 9 19.2   aldridge,lamarcus    86%  34%  0.84  +10 33.9
billups,chauncey     77%  15%  1.37  + 9 17.2   miller,andre         85%  19%  1.17  + 3 17.2
harrington,al        68%  26%  0.98  + 2 16.8   batum,nicolas        81%  17%  1.28  - 8 16.9
hilario,nenê         82%  16%  0.96  +11 16.2   matthews,wesley      84%  23%  1.22  + 9 14.2
afflalo,arron        80%  15%  1.70  - 5 15.5   camby,marcus         75%  12%  0.99  - 1  9.5
lawson,ty            43%  16%  0.66  - 6  7.1   fernandez,rudy       35%  17%  1.18  + 5  6.0
forbes,gary          36%  31%  0.25  - 3  2.6   cunningham,dante     39%   4%  0.90  - 3  2.2
williams,shelden     40%   1%  5.53  -12  2.0   johnson,armon        15%  11%  0.08    0  0.2
ely,melvin            1%   -%  0.00  - 2  0.0   babbitt,luke (DNP)
balkman,renaldo (DNP)                           marks,sean (DNP)
carter,anthony (DNP)                            mills,patrick (DNP)
smith,j.r. (DNP)                                roy,brandon (DNP)
PACE: 85.9          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 85.9          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
nuggets,denver      96.6 .462  .179 .209 .143   trailblazers,port  100.1 .441  .364 .140 .113

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NEWS & MOVES

Minutiae from around the league

ROCKETS: "Rockets center Yao Ming underwent a thorough medical exam of his surgically repaired left foot yesterday by surgeon Dr. Tom Clanton. The medical exam revealed that the area of the surgery in and around the tarsal navicular bone is completely healed and the structural integrity of the foot is intact. It was determined that Yao is suffering from a bone bruise in his left ankle that presented in a game against Washington on 11/10/10. He is expected to be out a minimum of two weeks (from today) and will continue the medical rehabilitation program on the ankle." (press release)
It's good that the examination found that Yao's feet are healed, but the ankle episode does little to assuage the notion that his bones can't stand up to the rigors of basketball.

WARRIORS: "Warriors forward David Lee, who underwent a second procedure to help cleanse a left elbow infection on Monday night, was released from Stanford Hospital early this afternoon. According to Dr. Bill Maloney (Stanford), Dr. Tim McAdams (Stanford) and Dr. Frank Chen (Fremont Surgery Center), the 6'9" forward has made very good progress, including a complete omission of redness and the near-complete removal of swelling around the elbow. Lee’s left arm has been splinted to restrict movement and he will be provided home IVs and antibiotics under the care of Dr. Chen. Dr. Chen will monitor his progress daily and David will be re-examined again next Tuesday." (press release)
Sounds like things are moving in the right direction, finally. My takeaway from all of this: Don't ever let anyone's teeth get into your elbow.

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FAB FIVE

A selection of our favorite NBA links

1. The injury-riddled Blazers have applied to the league for salary cap exception that would allow Portland to replace Greg Oden's place on the roster.

2. Dying for a glimpse of Allen Iverson? Tune into NBA TV this Sunday.

3. The All-Star ballot was released on Thursday.

4. Looks like Donte Greene is going from the proverbial outhouse to the penthouse, at least when it comes to playing time.

5. The Blazers' Brandon Roy will be out at least for a couple of games.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ON TAP

This weekend in the NBA

------------------
FRIDAY'S GAMES
------------------
WTC  VIS @ HOM,  GAMETIME     NBAPET LINE    OFFICIALS
+16  chi @ dal,  9:30 PM EST [ dal by  7 ]   Dan Crawford, Matt Boland, Haywoode Workman
+10  sas @ uta,  9:00 PM EST [ sas by  4 ]   Marc Davis, Olandis Poole, Leon Wood
+ 8  okc @ bos,  7:00 PM EST [ bos by 13 ]   Joey Crawford, Pat Fraher, Mark Lindsay
+ 7  nyk @ gsw, 10:30 PM EST [ gsw by  4 ]   Ron Garretson, Eric Dalen, Tom Washington
+ 7  cha @ mia,  7:30 PM EST [ mia by 18 ]   Steve Javie, Mark Ayotte, Zach Zarba
+ 1  mil @ phi,  7:00 PM EST [ mil by  0 ]   Derrick Stafford, Courtney Kirkland, Eli Roe
+ 1  cle @ nwo,  8:00 PM EST [ nwo by 17 ]   Bob Delaney, John Goble, Eric Lewis
- 2  hou @ tor,  7:00 PM EST [ tor by  1 ]   Jason Phillips, Rodney Mott, Josh Tiven
- 4  njn @ sac, 10:00 PM EST [ sac by  2 ]   James Capers, Derek Richardson, Sean Wright
-10  mem @ was,  7:00 PM EST [ mem by  2 ]   Dick Bavetta, Violet Palmer, Michael Smith
-11  lal @ min,  8:00 PM EST [ lal by 16 ]   Monty McCutchen, Derrick Collins, James Williams
------------------
SATURDAY'S GAMES
------------------
WTC  VIS @ HOM,  GAMETIME     NBAPET LINE    OFFICIALS
+18  dal @ atl,  8:00 PM EST [ atl by  1 ]
+13  orl @ ind,  7:00 PM EST [ orl by  5 ]
+10  uta @ por, 10:00 PM EST [ por by  5 ]
+ 8  okc @ mil,  8:30 PM EST [ mil by  4 ]
+ 6  phx @ cha,  7:00 PM EST [ cha by  4 ]
+ 2  mia @ mem,  8:00 PM EST [ mia by 14 ]
+ 1  cle @ sas,  8:30 PM EST [ sas by 15 ]
= 0  njn @ den,  9:00 PM EST [ den by  9 ]
-16  nyk @ lac, 10:30 PM EST [ nyk by  8 ]
------------------
SUNDAY'S GAMES
------------------
WTC  VIS @ HOM,  GAMETIME     NBAPET LINE    OFFICIALS
+ 7  gsw @ lal,  9:30 PM EST [ lal by 13 ]
- 2  bos @ tor,  1:00 PM EST [ bos by 11 ]
- 4  nwo @ sac,  6:00 PM EST [ nwo by 12 ]
-10  was @ det,  6:00 PM EST [ det by  6 ]

Note: WTC is a junk stat rating the "watchability" of a game, taking into
account the quality of the opponents and the likelihood of a close game. Referee
assignments for Saturday and Sunday not yet available.

Through Thursday, 169 of 1,230 games (13.7%) have been played in the 2010-11 NBA regular season.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of at team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.

You can follow Bradford on Twitter at twitter.com/@bbdoolittle.

You can order a copy of Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010-11 here.

Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.

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