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December 14, 2010
PBP Roundup
Dec. 13

by Bradford Doolittle

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The late posting of today's roundup is actually a direct result of the "scare" referred to in the subhead of this article. Derrick Rose caused 20,000-plus at the United Center to gasp in unison with a little less than two minutes left in the Bulls' 92-73 win over the Nets on Monday. He drove, went up for one of his gravity-defying finishes only to discover Brandon Rush, who slid underneath him. Rose not only gets high into the air, but he also has a tendency to curl his legs back behind him when he goes up off two feet. Rush knocked his legs out from under him and he went to the floor hard, using his right hand to break the fall. I was asked to cover the aftermath of the injury today, which sent me scurrying out to the Berto Center at the last minute earlier today. Luckily, all is as well as can be expected. Nothing is broken. Rose's wrist is sprained, his elbow bruised and his hip is also sore. Nevertheless, Rose and Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau anticipate that he'll play tomorrow in Toronto.

Note: The details of the three-way trade reportedly involving the Nets, Lakers and Rockets are still filtering in. When everything is signed, sealed and delivered, check back and we'll have a breakdown of who got what and why.

Note#2: Don't be shy about sending me links to your NBA-related work for inclusion in the Fab Five section of the Roundup. My original intention when I decided to include that--to give priority to those seeking a little additional pub. A handful of you have taken advantage, but I thought there would be more. Send 'em in.

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LIVE AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS

1. In this week's Poll Position, college guru John Gasaway weighs in on the ramifications of Kyrie Irving's injury. (premium)

2. The Clipboard: Variety is the Spice of Jason Richardson's Game says Sebastian Pruiti in his latest video-charged breadown. (premium)

3. Trench Watch has analysis of the Hornets, Ray Felton and a league-wide trend in free throws. (premium)

4. Syracuse is doomed. Like Duke last year. John Gasaway may be waxing ironic here. (Unfiltered)

5. How Ravine Was My Valley. Kyle Whelliston looks at the downturn of the Missouri Valley Conference. (Unfiltered)

6. Prospectus Roundtable: NBA at the Quarter Pole, a look at the season so far by our NBA quorum. (Free preview)

7. On the Beat: League Taking Control of Hornets and other tidbits from John Perrotto. (premium)

8. The Pac-10: Why So Little Talent? Sam Rayburn, our newest scribe, wonders what going on out West. (Free preview)

9. Start/Sit Projections: Week of Dec. 13

10. Kentucky's Difference: No Experience Required. The Wildcats just keep churning out the talent. (premium)

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FANTASY PROJECTIONS

Our downloadable Basketball Fantasy Projection spreadsheets are available for anyone with a premium subscription to Basketball Prospectus. The sheet is updated daily and can be found on your 'Manage Profile' page. The download includes a forecast for the next seven days for every player, game-by-game projections and health status updates.

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HOT FIVES

POWER RATING (POW)      GR (12/13/10)          WP82 -- ALL           WP82 -- ROOKIES
celtics,boston, 66.4    nowitzki,dirk, 40.4    williams,deron, 25.9  griffin,blake, 16.6
spurs,sanantonio, 61.4  williams,deron, 39.5   james,lebron, 25.5    wall,john, 8.1
mavericks,dallas, 59.5  wade,dwyane, 35.7      bryant,kobe, 21.9     fields,landry, 3.3
heat,miami, 58.9        williams,reggie, 33.0  rose,derrick, 20.1    bledsoe,eric, 3.2
bulls,chicago, 57.7     randolph,zach, 26.5    westbrook,russ, 18.9  cousins,demarcus, 2.6
Note: GR leaders are from previous night only.

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MONDAY'S BOX SCORES & RECAPS

NOTE: Glossary is at bottom of page.

HEAT 96, HORNETS 84 (box): Miami's core trio combined for 75 points as the Heat won its 10th straight game, all by double figures. You'd expect a team with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to have a tremendous perimeter defense. Indeed, Miami leads the league in opponent three-point percentage. It also leads in opposing eFG%, True Shooting Percentage and ranks fourth against two-pointers. Heck, Miami has even yielded the league's lowest free-throw percentage (.719). How's that for intimidation? By the way, there is a lot of talk about how the Heat have been running more, fueling its success. Just in terms of tempo, Miami's last eight games have been nearly two possessions per game slower than its first 17 games. Meanwhile, The Hornets have really hit the skids, with a 3-9 record since their 11-1 start. After scoring at least a point per possession in each of its first 11 games, New Orleans has gotten there in just six of it last 13 outings.

NWO (14-10)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   MIA (18-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
west,david            76%  37%  1.00  - 9 24.6   wade,dwyane          80%  29%  1.38  + 7 35.7
ariza,trevor          79%  16%  1.00  -10 16.8   james,lebron         84%  33%  0.87  +11 26.2
okafor,emeka          77%   9%  1.21  -10 15.1   bosh,chris           79%  27%  1.14  + 8 17.2
paul,chris            74%  21%  0.96  -11 11.8   arroyo,carlos        47%  18%  1.31  + 6 16.3
jack,jarrett          26%  24%  1.04  - 1  9.6   jones,james          33%   8%  1.44  + 8  6.5
belinelli,marco       62%  19%  0.91  - 8  9.6   ilgauskas,zydrunas   43%   8%  1.07  + 3  5.8
green,willie          38%  22%  0.47  - 4  6.3   chalmers,mario       56%  12%  1.04  + 4  5.5
smith,jason           24%   7%  1.92  - 4  6.1   dampier,erick        48%   5%  1.44  +12  5.1
gray,aaron            22%  18%  0.66  - 1  2.7   anthony,joel          9%  11%  0.25  - 3  0.3
pondexter,quincy      21%  14%  0.22  - 2  1.2   howard,juwan         21%   5%  0.00  + 4  0.0
andersen,david (DNP)                             house,eddie (DNP)
thornton,marcus (DNP)                            magloire,jamaal (DNP)
PACE: 81.0           ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 81.0          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
hornets,neworleans  103.7 .425  .263 .148 .185   heat,miami         118.6 .471  .211 .074 .207

---

BULLS 92, PACERS 73 (box): This wasn't the most aesthetic game I've ever seen, but it's a kind of statement game for Chicago in that they showed a Miami-like propensity for turning on the juice and putting up a comfortable margin of victory in a contest that could have gone either way. The Bulls have won six straight and will be favored in 11 of their next 12 games, with the exception being the Christmas Day game at New York. Chicago has done a tremendous job of contesting shots, cleaning off the glass and forcing a good number of turnovers. That's about all the elements you need for a top-notch defense. Derrick Rose hurt his wrist in a nasty spill late in the game. X-rays were negative and we're still waiting to find out if he's going to miss any time, though it does sound like he's unlikely to play Wednesday in Toronto.

IND (11-12)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   CHI (15-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
ford,t.j.             56%  26%  0.96  + 2 22.1   rose,derrick         81%  28%  1.16  +25 24.7
dunleavy jr.,mike     73%  23%  0.90  -23 14.2   boozer,carlos        78%  33%  1.03  +23 21.3
rush,brandon          86%  23%  0.74  -17 10.6   noah,joakim          70%  14%  1.28  +14 16.0
posey,james           68%  13%  0.70  -10  9.5   deng,luol            76%  18%  1.29  +25 13.1
collison,darren       44%  31%  0.60  -21  8.3   brewer,ronnie        43%  18%  1.56  -16  9.6
hibbert,roy           42%  22%  0.51  -17  5.0   korver,kyle          42%  10%  1.14  +11  6.3
jones,solomon         58%   4%  2.10  - 2  4.6   bogans,keith         38%   9%  1.91  +18  5.6
jones,dahntay         41%  20%  0.72  + 2  4.0   gibson,taj           47%  14%  1.18  + 4  5.6
mcroberts,josh        32%  13%  1.20  - 9  3.8   asik,omer             5%  18%  0.75  - 3  0.8
foster,jeff (DNP)                                watson,c.j.          19%  19%  0.23  - 6  0.4
george,paul (DNP)                                johnson,james (DNP)
hansbrough,tyler (DNP)                           thomas,kurt (DNP)
PACE: 89.0           ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 89.0          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
pacers,indiana       82.0 .375  .250 .180 .074   bulls,chicago      103.4 .519  .243 .146 .099

---

GRIZZLIES 86, TRAIL BLAZERS 73 (box): Zach Randolph had 25 points and 20 rebounds as Memphis picked up its third straight win. Memphis outscored Portland 25-9 in the fourth quarter, during which the Blazers shot 4-of-19. The Grizzlies enjoyed a 17-14 edge in second chance points and, right now, if the Blazers lose that category, they're not going to win the game. Brandon Roy had seven points on 3-of-16 shooting for Portland. I only saw this game in a highlights package, but from that evidence it was painful to watch Roy. He just couldn't generate the separation or explosion needed to get clean looks.

POR (12-13)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   MEM (11-14)         PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
miller,andre          77%  21%  1.24  - 9 19.2   randolph,zach        85%  30%  1.17  + 9 26.5
camby,marcus          71%  17%  0.90  + 3 15.1   mayo,o.j.            60%  21%  1.16  +15 20.0
matthews,wesley       88%  17%  1.26  -13 14.7   gay,rudy             71%  26%  0.99  + 1 17.1
roy,brandon           79%  20%  0.67  + 1 12.5   conley,mike          68%  18%  1.09  - 4 10.8
aldridge,lamarcus     58%  26%  0.79  -17  6.9   gasol,marc           69%  15%  0.73  + 6  6.6
fernandez,rudy        30%  27%  0.58  - 6  6.4   arthur,darrell       43%   9%  1.49  +12  5.8
cunningham,dante      40%  15%  0.64  - 2  4.2   henry,xavier         37%  17%  0.57  - 5  4.9
mills,patrick          9%  31%  1.62  - 4  3.6   allen,tony           37%  11%  0.92  +17  4.2
johnson,armon          3%   -%  0.54  + 2  1.4   vasquez,greivis      32%  15%  1.40  +14  3.9
przybilla,joel        16%   2%  2.35  -10  0.8   haddadi,hamed (DNP)
batum,nicolas         18%   8%  0.00  -11  0.0   thabeet,hasheem (DNP)
johnson,armon (DNP)   young,sam (DNP)
PACE: 86.1           ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 86.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
trailblazers,port    84.8 .392  .313 .209 .092   grizzlies,memphis   99.9 .420  .370 .163 .133

---

BUCKS 103, MAVERICKS 99 (box): Wow, some results just take you by surprise and this certainly caught me off guard. The Mavericks had won 12 in a row and during that streak had been pretty dominant defensively on their home floor. The Bucks have the worst offense in the league and were 2-8 on the road. I assumed the Bucks wouldn't be able to generate enough offense to win on Dallas' home floor. Instead, the Bucks hit 9-of-13 from three-point range and won their third in a row. The Mavericks led by 20 points with just over five minutes to go in the first half.

MIL (10-13)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   DAL (19-5)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
jennings,brandon      86%  27%  1.29  +14 20.7   nowitzki,dirk        81%  35%  1.07  - 4 40.4
ilyasova,ersan        48%  22%  1.19  +20 19.8   marion,shawn         56%  20%  1.13  - 1 17.2
bogut,andrew          87%  18%  1.40  +12 19.1   kidd,jason           65%  14%  2.19  - 9 13.3
dooling,keyon         57%  20%  1.60  + 5 15.5   terry,jason          64%  20%  1.24  - 1 11.0
douglas-roberts,chr   57%  14%  1.62  + 5 13.5   butler,caron         58%  23%  0.54  + 7  9.6
salmons,john          66%  12%  0.92  + 2 11.6   chandler,tyson       59%  10%  1.76  -11  7.4
gooden,drew           45%  19%  0.82  - 9 10.9   barea,jose           43%  22%  1.16  - 8  6.3
mbahamoute,luc        26%  14%  0.29  - 9  1.7   stevenson,deshawn    32%   4%  2.06  + 2  4.1
brockman,jon           3%  36%  1.69  - 2  1.6   haywood,brendan      41%  10%  0.53  + 5  2.4
maggette,corey        15%  41%  0.27  - 6  1.4   novak,steve           0%   -%  0.00    0  0.0
sanders,larry         11%  17%  0.31  -12  0.5   cardinal,brian (DNP)
boykins,earl (DNP)                               mahinmi,ian (DNP)
PACE: 88.6           ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 88.6          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
bucks,milwaukee     116.2 .530  .256 .124 .099   mavericks,dallas   111.7 .520  .237 .147 .134

---

JAZZ 108, WARRIORS 95 (box): Deron Williams had 30 points and 10 assists, just another night at the office for an emerging MVP candidate--and my personal choice at this point in the season. Williams had 22 of those points in the second half for the Jazz, which erased a three-point halftime deficit. Williams seems to hit a lot of clutch shots as do, frankly, most of the league's top stars. However, it would be nice to have a stat in basketball equivalent to baseball's Win Probability Added. If I can ever complete my play-by-play parser, I assure you that we'll have a hoops take on WPA here at Prospectus. Anyway, I have been writing about the Jazz's need for a basket protector for three years. To me, a basket protector is a different thing than a team that blocks a lot of shots. The Suns blocked a lot of shots when Amar'e Stoudemire played for them, but it wasn't like opponents were wary about taking the ball into the lane, as teams are against Dwight Howard and Orlando. The Jazz have blocked a lot of shots this year, but I have felt like they still lack basket protection, which puts a lot of pressure on the perimeter defense. The thing Utah needs to get out of the West come postseason time is the ability to get key stops against elite offenses. That's why they need the basket protector. Well, I don't know if it means anything, but Al Jefferson has suddenly started swatting away everything opponents bring into the lane. He did a great job against Howard last week, blocking three of his shots. Against Golden State, Jefferson rang up six blocks and the Warriors shot just 37.5 percent on twos. Is there something different about Jefferson? Not really. His overall block rate is right in line with past seasons. But we'll see if the trend continues, because it could make Utah a very dangerous team.

GSW (8-16)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   UTA (18-8)          PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
williams,reggie      79%  14%  1.98  -10 33.0   williams,deron       72%  31%  1.52  + 3 39.5
wright,dorell        77%  21%  1.32  - 6 19.6   miles,c.j.           58%  28%  1.22  +13 19.0
lee,david            85%  26%  0.80  - 9 17.5   millsap,paul         68%  22%  0.97    0 13.8
ellis,monta          84%  25%  0.89  - 5 11.7   evans,jeremy         19%  26%  1.69  + 6 12.9
biedrins,andris      58%  17%  1.05  + 4  9.7   jefferson,al         70%  21%  0.98  - 5 10.7
law,acie             32%  14%  1.33  -17  6.3   kirilenko,andrei     78%   9%  1.99  +20  9.6
radmanovic,vladimir  36%  16%  1.14  - 7  4.3   fesenko,kyrylo       30%   4%  2.08  +18  4.4
amundson,louis       16%  21%  0.10  - 3  0.2   watson,earl          41%  12%  0.99  + 4  3.3
gadzuric,dan         18%   6%  0.14  -13  0.2   price,ronnie         42%  17%  0.29  + 2  3.1
bell,charlie         11%   5%  0.00  - 1  0.0   hayward,gordon       23%  15%  0.00  + 4  0.0
lin,jeremy (DNP)                                bell,raja (DNP)
udoh,epke (DNP)                                 elson,francisco (DNP)
PACE: 92.8          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 92.8          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
warriors,goldenst  102.3 .463  .375 .205 .147   jazz,utah          116.3 .532  .263 .172 .137

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NEWS & MOVES

Minutiae from around the league

NBA: "Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki have been named the NBA's Players of the Week for games played between December 6th and December 12th." (press release)
Last week's GR leaders, three or more games played:

PLAYER             GP  GR/G
williams,deron      4  35.1
love,kevin          4  33.5
wade,dwyane         4  30.6
lopez,brook         3  30.5
gordon,eric         4  28.9
westbrook,russell   4  28.8
smith,josh          4  28.7
durant,kevin        4  28.2
james,lebron        4  28.1
felton,raymond      4  27.1
nash,steve          3  26.4
bryant,kobe         4  25.9
rose,derrick        4  25.2
matthews,wesley     4  25.0
bogut,andrew        3  25.0
martin,kevin        3  24.8
wallace,gerald      3  24.7
parker,tony         3  23.1
stoudemire,amare    4  23.1
iguodala,andre      3  23.0

GRIZZLIES: "The Memphis Grizzlies assigned forward DeMarre Carroll to the Dakota Wizards, the team's NBA Development League affiliate, Grizzlies General Manager and Vice President of Basketball Operations Chris Wallace announced today." (press release)
Carroll has played just 20 minutes this season. His offensive ability is more appropriate for the D-League anyway.

NETS: "New Jersey Nets forward Damion James underwent successful foot surgery today to repair a fractured fifth metatarsal of his right foot, Nets General Manager Billy King announced. James is expected to be out of action for a period of six to eight weeks." (press release)

NETS: "Nets de-activate Terrence Williams. He was told not to come to Prudential Center. Could be a trade situation. Will have more later." (Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News via Twitter)
The possible trade scenarios being tossed about are too speculative for me to address, but Williams being told to stay at home is concrete enough to merit a mention. Clearly something is going on.

NUGGETS: After playing with a partially torn ligament in his right shooting wrist for the past two weeks, Nuggets point guard Chauncey Billups will miss tonight's game against the Orlando Magic. Billups initially sprained the wrist Nov. 20. Billups aggravated the injury when he was hit during Denver's victory in Toronto last Friday. His status is day-to-day. (press release)
Billups' numbers this season are relatively stable, at least when you factor in diminished shooting caused by the injury. If Carmelo Anthony is ultimately traded and the Nuggets go to a youth movement, Billups could be a huge pickup for a contender later in the season.

ROCKETS: "Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey announced today that the team has recalled forward Patrick Patterson from Houston's single-affiliation NBA D-League partner Rio Grande Valley. Patterson (6-9, 235, Kentucky) averaged a team-leading 18.3 points (.555, 61-110 FG), 10.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.56 steals and 1.56 blocks in nine games (nine starts) with the Vipers." (press release)
Impressive numbers for Patterson.

TIMBERWOLVES: "The Minnesota Timberwolves recalled second-year guard Jonny Flynn from the Sioux Falls Skyforce yesterday. Flynn appeared in one game for the Skyforce during his second stint in the D-League, dishing out 12 assists to go along with eight points and five rebounds in the Skyforce's game against Tulsa Friday night." (press release)
Finally!

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FAB FIVE

A selection of our favorite NBA links

1. Lots of great insight in Aggrey Sam's profile of the Bulls' Luol Deng.

2. Dexter Fishmore has a look at Andrew Bynum's return and what it means for the Lakers.

3. Neil Paine looks at this year's preponderence of long winning streaks.

4. I really hope this isn't true.

5. Harlan Schreiber examines the George Shinn era.

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ON TAP

Tonight in the NBA

WTC  VIS @ HOM,  GAMETIME     NBAPET LINE    OFFICIALS
+13  orl @ den,  9:00 PM EST [ orl by  1 ]   Steve Javie, Kevin Fehr, Kane Fitzgerald
+ 1  tor @ cha,  7:00 PM EST [ cha by  3 ]   Ed Malloy, Mark Ayotte, Michael Smith
- 3  phi @ njn,  7:00 PM EST [ phi by  4 ]   Bill Kennedy, Leroy Richardson, Gary Zielinski
- 7  min @ gsw, 10:30 PM EST [ gsw by  4 ]   Joey Crawford, Tommy Nunez Jr., Leon Wood
- 7  atl @ det,  7:30 PM EST [ atl by  8 ]   Derrick Stafford, Bennie Adams, Brent Barnaky
- 7  sac @ hou,  8:30 PM EST [ hou by 10 ]   Monty McCutchen, JT Orr, Tom Washington
-10  lal @ was,  7:00 PM EST [ lal by 14 ]   Greg Willard, Nick Buchert, David Jones
Note: WTC is a junk stat rating the "watchability" of a game, taking into
account the quality of the opponents and the likelihood of a close game.

Through Monday, 358 of 1,230 games (29.1%) have been played in the 2010-11 NBA regular season.

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GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of at team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.

You can follow Bradford on Twitter at twitter.com/@bbdoolittle.

The 2010-11 Pro Basketball Prospectus is now available in paperback form on Amazon.com. For sample chapters and more information, see our book page.

Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.

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