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December 26, 2010
PBP Roundup
Christmas Day Recap

by Bradford Doolittle

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After a dormant Christmas Eve, the NBA was back with five games aired one after the other on Christmas Day, including the much-hyped game with the Heat taking on the Lakers. The contest was quite a statement for Miami's defense but also was a high-profile alert that the Lakers haven't been playing great basketball for much of the season. I expect them to get it going--you expect them to get it going, too--but, right now, the Lakers are very beatable.

After I added yesterday's games to NBAPET and looked over the standings, I felt for the first time this year that there are some lines of stratification forming in both conferences. In the East, Boston and Miami have set themselves apart from the rest of the conference, though a healthy Bulls team and the new mix in Orlando could both close the gap before season's end. Right now, however, a Celtics-Heat showdown looks to be in the offing, a prospect that would have surprised few in the preseason. In the West, it's a little more murky. Dallas and San Antonio are very close at the top of the circuit, while the Lakers seem to be in a scrum with Utah and Oklahoma City for the other top-four seeds.

This stratification of which I write is not just based on the the current standings, but also on point differentials and NBAPET's power rating. This is where the Lakers' situation becomes hard to read. Their point differential is still strong--second best in the West. However, L.A. has sagged to 11th in the league and seventh in the West in power rating. Let's not forget that SCHOENE initially projected the Lakers to finish eighth in the West. It seems like every season, there comes a point when we question the Lakers' reign only to see Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant lead a spirited charge. The most difficult part of the Lakers' schedule lies ahead, however. Do I really expect the Lakers to finish in the bottom half of the West's playoff bracket? No, and only part of that is because none of the teams currently rated ahead of them are in the Pacific Division. Mostly, I've learned that it doesn't pay to forecast a Lakers demise. I'll believe it when it actually happens.

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LIVE AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS

1. Start/Sit Projections: Week of Dec. 27 (Kevin Pelton) The upcoming NBA week, which spans 2010 and 2011, sees Phoenix Suns big men Channing Frye and Robin Lopez get the benefit of a favorable schedule. (premium)

2. Brown Out in Charlotte (Kevin Pelton) (Unfiltered)

3. Can Al Nolen save Minnesota? (Ken Pomeroy) (Unfiltered)

4. St. John's: Back From the Brink? (Asher Fusco) After a disastrous loss at Fordham, Steve Lavin's team recovered nicely, beating Northwestern Tuesday night and winning the Holiday Festival at Madison Square Garden. (premium)

5. In Its Own Way, a Classic (Kevin Pelton) (Unfiltered)

6. Poll Position: No Turner, No Problem (John Gasaway) Replacing a national player of the year isn't supposed to be as easy as Ohio State's making it look. So in his feature for ESPN Insider, John considers the unthinkable. Is Jared Sullinger the best freshman Thad Matta's ever had? (premium)

7. Moral Hazard: The Dangers of Catering to a Star Free Agent (Kevin Pelton) Saturday's trades by the Orlando Magic might have been the latest example of a team trying to win now in order to hang on to a superstar nearing free agency. Like the deals made by the Cleveland Cavaliers in recent years, they carry a significant long-term risk. (premium)

8. On the Beat: Orlando Makes Bold Deals (John Perrotto) Magic general manager Otis Smith explained Saturday's pair of deals that brought Orlando two new starters and a sixth man as necessary to get the team back on the path to championship contention. (premium)

9. Transaction Analysis: 'Tis the Season to be Dealing (Bradford Doolittle) With a little over 30 percent of the season complete, some NBA general managers have seen enough, as evidenced by the four trades we've seen last few days--involving seven teams--including Saturday's blockbuster re-making of the Orlando Magic. (free preview)

10. The Clipboard: Aminu's Three-Point Shooting (Sebastian Pruiti) After struggling with the college-length three-pointer, Clipper rookie Al-Farouq Aminu has seemingly found his stroke on treys from NBA distance. Has he really improved his technique, or is his percentage due for a correction? (Premium)

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FANTASY PROJECTIONS

Our downloadable Basketball Fantasy Projection spreadsheets are available for anyone with a premium subscription to Basketball Prospectus. The sheet is updated weekly and can be found on your 'Manage Profile' page. The download includes a forecast for the seven days, Monday through Sunday, for every player, game-by-game projections, health status updates and current team rotations.

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HOOPS CHATS

Basketball Prospectus authors will be taking your questions. All chats begin at 1 p.m. EST on the day listed, but you can go in and submit a question now if you like.

WEDNESDAY, Dec. 29: Bradford Doolittle

Dec. 17: Kevin Pelton (TRANSCRIPT)

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HOT FIVES

POWER RATING (POW)     GR (12/25/10)          WP82 -- ALL          WP82 -- ROOKIES
celtics,boston, 66.9   durant,kevin, 60.7     james,lebron, 32.8   griffin,blake, 10.4
mavericks,dallas, 63.0 billups,chauncey, 33.7 williams,deron, 28.8 fields,landry, 5.2
spurs,sanantonio, 62.0 miller,andre, 30.9     nowitzki,dirk, 22.4  neal,gary, 2.8
heat,miami, 60.6       lee,david, 28.2        paul,chris, 20.8     bledsoe,eric, 1.9
bulls,chicago, 56.1    bosh,chris, 27.5       bryant,kobe, 20.6    wall,john, 1.7
Note: GR leaders are from previous night only.

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SATURDAY'S BOX SCORES & RECAPS

NOTE: Glossary is at bottom of page.

KNICKS 103, BULLS 95 (box): The Knicks' shooting won out against the Bulls' offensive rebounding onslaught as New York improved to 2-0 against Chicago on the season. The game was ragged but intense for most of the way, before lapsing into the merely ragged during the fourth quarter, during which the Bulls went 8:18 without scoring a point. The Knicks shot 12-of-22 from long range and improved to 28-of-46 (60.9 percent) in their two games against Chicago. Tom Thibodeau's defense seemed to be fixated on taking the pick-and-roll away from Amar'e Stoudemire and to that end, the Bulls were largely effective. (Except in the sequences in which Omer Asik was in the game checking Stoudemire.) It seemed like many of New York's 24 turnovers came on pick-and-rolls. However, the Bulls gave up far too many open looks from the perimeter. Derrick Rose had a poor game, despite his 26 points, seven rebounds, eight assists and six steals. He struggled to get the Bulls into an offensive flow, as the Bulls assisted on just 15 of their 40 field goals. Rose had to take over the offense too often, taking 28 shots and committing seven turnovers. He and Carlos Boozer, who also posted nice superficial numbers, didn't seem to work in tandem so much as they were taking turns, and the rest of the Bulls were picking up the scraps on the offensive end. The Bulls' ineffective offense was a prime contributor to New York's 18-3 advantage in fast-break points. Chicago did grab 17 of 55 offensive rebound chances and enjoyed a 29-9 edge in second-chance points.

CHI (18-10).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   NYK (18-12).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
rose,derrick.........86%  36%  0.86  - 3 24.3   felton,raymond.......85%  25%  1.20  + 9 22.6
boozer,carlos........88%  34%  0.79  -13 23.8   fields,landry........81%  10%  1.94  +10 17.8
deng,luol............84%  15%  1.09  - 5 14.2   stoudemire,amare.....77%  31%  0.81  + 2 17.2
korver,kyle..........41%  12%  1.43  - 1  9.9   gallinari,danilo.....77%  18%  1.11  + 2 16.7
thomas,kurt..........55%  12%  0.81  + 3  6.4   chandler,wilson......63%  25%  0.95  +12 12.7
brewer,ronnie........52%   8%  1.31  - 5  5.5   douglas,toney........45%  18%  1.33    0  7.7
gibson,taj...........27%   3%  3.87  - 2  4.4   williams,shawne......43%   5%  2.53  - 1  5.5
watson,c.j...........19%  23%  0.96  - 5  3.7   turiaf,ronny.........29%  15%  0.75  + 6  3.4
bogans,keith.........33%   5%  1.77  - 4  2.7   mason,roger..........(DNP)  
asik,omer............14%   7%  0.70  - 5  0.7   mozgov,timofey.......(DNP)  
johnson,james........(DNP)                      randolph,anthony.....(DNP)  
scalabrine,brian.....(DNP)                      walker,bill..........(DNP)  
PACE: 99.4          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 99.4          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Bulls............   95.6 .462  .309 .221 .089   Knicks...........  103.6 .608  .162 .241 .053

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MAGIC 86, CELTICS 78 (box): The Magic outscored the Celtics 15-1 over the last 3:21, capping a 50-32 second half, and ended Boston's 14-game winning streak. Kevin Garnett scored a game-high 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting, but his Boston teammates combined to shoot 18-of-67 (26.9 percent). Dwight Howard managed just six points for Orlando but had five blocks and helped limit the Celtics to 12-of-30 shooting in the paint. Nate Robinson shot 2-of-15 from the floor in 42:40 of playing time for the Celtics. Boston's 85.5 Offensive Rating was a season-low. You don't ever want to get too excited about one-game plus-minus figures, but the +30 put up by Hedo Turkoglu in a game played so close to the vest is a head-turner.

BOS (23-5)..........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   ORL (19-11).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
garnett,kevin........71%  21%  1.36  - 1 18.5   nelson,jameer........59%  28%  0.80  + 5 17.6
allen,ray............78%  19%  0.74  -12 18.0   turkoglu,hedo........68%  14%  1.98  +30 14.7
davis,glen...........81%  21%  0.90  + 3 16.4   bass,brandon.........77%  24%  1.04  + 9 13.1
pierce,paul..........83%  24%  1.08  - 9 15.8   howard,dwight........70%  17%  0.72  + 9 11.3
robinson,nate........89%  18%  0.61  - 5 12.0   arenas,gilbert.......51%  23%  0.64  - 7  9.8
daniels,marquis......38%  15%  0.51  + 5  2.8   redick,j.j...........63%  11%  1.76  + 5  9.5
o'neal,shaquille.....26%  18%  0.14  -13  1.1   anderson,ryan........52%  24%  0.92  - 2  9.4
o'neal,jermaine......21%  18%  0.25  - 5  1.0   richardson,jason.....60%  16%  0.71  - 9  9.0
bradley,avery........11%   9%  0.00  - 3  0.0   clark,earl...........(DNP)  
erden,semih..........(DNP)                      duhon,chris..........(DNP)  
harangody,luke.......(DNP)                      richardson,quentin...(DNP)  
wafer,von............(DNP)                      williams,jason.......(DNP)  
PACE: 91.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 91.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Celtics..........   85.5 .370  .140 .143 .101   Magic............   94.3 .472  .195 .186 .140

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HEAT 96, LAKERS 80 (box): None of the first three games on Saturday were particularly aesthetic and that certainly held true for the Heat's win in L.A., but it was an impressive victory for Miami nonetheless. Miami continues to thrive with defense. Since the Heat was 9-8, it has allowed under a point per possession in 10 of 15 games and have closed within a hairsbreadth of overtaking Boston for the league's top Defensive Rating. Miami set the tone by holding the Lakers to 6-of-25 shooting in the first period, during which Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol combined to go 0-for-11. On the offensive end, the big three did all the scoring for Miami, Chris Bosh made an impact off the glass and LeBron James chipped in with a triple-double. The Lakers have endured two straight offensive clunkers in losing a pair at the Staples Center. Next up is to road games, at San Antonio and New Orleans. Could L.A., which has slipped to 11th in NBAPET's power rankings, suffer its second four-game skid of the season?

MIA (23-9)..........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   LAL (21-9)..........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
bosh,chris...........80%  25%  1.32  +21 27.5   bryant,kobe..........84%  27%  0.93  -21 21.0
wade,dwyane..........75%  31%  0.88  +21 24.6   gasol,pau............76%  25%  0.98  -11 19.4
james,lebron.........80%  22%  2.14  +15 22.4   brown,shannon........48%  24%  0.90  - 6 13.2
chalmers,mario.......61%  22%  1.13  + 5 20.7   fisher,derek.........52%   6%  2.78  - 8 10.1
ilgauskas,zydrunas...48%  12%  1.04  + 8  5.3   odom,lamar...........82%  19%  0.97  -21  9.8
jones,james..........42%  14%  0.82  - 2  4.8   bynum,andrew.........37%  16%  1.15  - 4  8.2
arroyo,carlos........39%  12%  1.06  +11  3.4   artest,ron...........44%  23%  1.25  + 2  7.9
dampier,erick........45%   5%  0.96  + 8  2.2   barnes,matt..........33%  11%  0.75  -11  4.0
howard,juwan.........20%  14%  0.42  - 5  1.6   blake,steve..........40%  14%  0.13  - 4  0.5
anthony,joel......... 7%  16%  0.05    0  0.1   walton,luke.......... 5%  23%  0.00  + 4  0.0
miller,mike.......... 3%  32%  0.00  - 2  0.0   caracter,derrick.....(DNP)  
house,eddie..........(DNP)                      smith,joe............(DNP)  
PACE: 85.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 85.2          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Heat.............  112.7 .500  .209 .117 .103   Lakers...........   93.9 .443  .205 .141 .078

---

THUNDER 114, NUGGETS 106 (box): Kevin Durant's 44 points were a season-high and marked the first 40-point game of the season for the NBA's top scorer. With 40 points through three periods, 21 in the third quarter alone, and the game still competitive, it looked for awhile that Durant might make a run at Bernard King's Christmas Day record of 60 points. Durant scored just four points in the fourth quarter, but Denver was never able to really mount a serious charge. The Nuggets played again without Carmelo Anthony, who is away from the team because of the death of his sister. When Anthony returns, it'll be the first time George Karl has had full contingent of talent on hand. How long will it last? The Nuggets are just 16-12 after losing in Oklahoma City and there doesn't seem to be anyone around that thinks Anthony is going to be a Nugget for much longer. If there is any chance of Anthony finishing out the season with the team, you'd have to think the Nuggets will have to go on a tear when Anthony returns to the team. Right now, it's hard to watch them without thinking, "What's the point?" Durant's GR, by the way, was the highest in the league so far this season. Raw production plus efficiency plus a lousy game by one's counterpart on the opposing team adds up to a sparkling performance.

DEN (15-12).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   OKC (20-10).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
billups,chauncey.....81%  26%  1.33  - 1 33.7   durant,kevin.........85%  36%  1.36  +10 60.7
hilario,nene.........76%  22%  1.27  + 3 24.5   harden,james.........59%  23%  1.40  + 1 16.7
harrington,al........46%  24%  1.15  - 3 18.1   green,jeff...........83%  19%  0.80  + 6 11.9
lawson,ty............68%  28%  1.06  - 1 15.3   westbrook,russell....72%  30%  0.85  + 4 11.3
martin,kenyon........45%  24%  0.86  -10 11.0   sefolosha,thabo......57%   3%  3.30  +10  9.0
andersen,chris.......32%  11%  0.84  - 6  4.7   maynor,eric..........28%  16%  1.37  + 4  4.5
forbes,gary..........34%  16%  0.78  - 9  4.1   krstic,nenad.........49%   8%  1.41  + 7  4.0
smith,j.r............59%  12%  0.57  - 6  2.8   ibaka,serge..........39%   6%  1.83  - 6  3.1
afflalo,arron........60%   5%  0.12  - 7  0.4   collison,nick........26%   9%  0.61  + 4  2.0
carter,anthony.......(DNP)                      ivey,royal...........(DNP)  
ely,melvin...........(DNP)                      mullens,byron........(DNP)  
williams,shelden.....(DNP)                      white,d.j............(DNP)  
PACE: 92.4          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 92.4          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Nuggets..........  114.7 .586  .156 .195 .143   Thunder..........  123.3 .531  .231 .097 .167

---

WARRIORS 109, TRAIL BLAZERS 102 (box): The Warriors closed out 13 1/2 hours of NBA action on Christmas Day with an 18-5 run over the final 5:08 to knock off the Blazers. Monta Ellis scored 10 of his 39 points in the fourth quarter to lead the charge. Stephen Curry returned to the Golden State lineup from his sprained ankle and had 11 assists in 29:18 but shot just 2-of-15 from the field. Portland grabbed 24 of 49 offensive rebound opportunities and held a 27-7 advantage in second-chance points. That led to a 62-42 edge on points in the paint for the Blazers, not enough to overcome Golden State's perimeter onslaught. There have been 21 instances of a team grabbing 20 or more rebounds in a game this season. The Blazers and the Timberwolves have both done it five times each. The Blazers are 1-4 in those games, suggesting that playing volleyball off one's own offensive glass isn't always the clearest path to victory. The Warriors have won two straight. Probably because SCHOENE was so high on Golden State in our preseason projections--but also because I think a lot of Keith Smart--I keep expecting the Warriors to go on a roll. If David Lee can stay healthy, it just might happen. Golden State is 10-11 with Lee in the lineup and 1-7 without him.

POR (15-15).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR   GSW (11-18).........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
miller,andre.........70%  25%  1.21  -14 30.9   lee,david............93%  18%  1.17  +10 28.2
batum,nicolas........73%  14%  1.98  -11 14.8   ellis,monta..........95%  32%  1.22  + 9 27.1
matthews,wesley......79%  29%  0.90  - 4 13.6   wright,dorell........64%  14%  2.28  +10 19.7
aldridge,lamarcus....82%  25%  0.71  - 7 12.8   williams,reggie......38%  22%  1.01  + 7 10.5
mills,patrick........29%  23%  0.97  + 7  9.9   curry,stephen........61%  26%  0.69  + 7  9.4
fernandez,rudy.......56%  13%  1.42  - 4  9.4   carney,rodney........31%   7%  2.27  - 3  5.6
cunningham,dante.....53%  15%  0.95  + 4  9.0   udoh,epke............34%  10%  1.26  - 6  5.1
camby,marcus.........49%   6%  3.49  - 6  7.4   radmanovic,vladimir..36%  12%  1.27  +11  4.9
marks,sean........... 8%  19%  0.46  +    0.6   amundson,louis.......36%  15%  1.10  - 1  4.6
babbitt,luke.........(DNP)                      law,acie.............10%  10%  0.67  - 9  0.8
johnson,armon........(DNP)                      lin,jeremy...........(DNP)  
roy,brandon..........(DNP)                      wright,brandan.......(DNP)  
PACE: 94.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%   PACE: 94.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
Trail Blazers....  108.4 .448  .490 .170 .094   Warriors.........  115.8 .542  .194 .138 .098

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NEWS & MOVES

Minutiae from around the league

SIXERS: "The Philadelphia 76ers will be without guard Lou Williams and Assistant Coach Brian James for the first two games of the team's five-game road trip - at Denver on December 26 and at Golden State on December 27 - for personal reasons. Williams will remain in Philadelphia to be present for the upcoming birth of his daughter. Coach James lost his father, Jay Robert James, last Wednesday." (press release)
With Williams out, the minutes for Evan Turner could go up for the next couple of games in that he could see some. That includes tonight's contest in Denver.

WIZARDS: "Wizards President Ernie Grunfeld announced today that forward Andray Blatche and center JaVale McGee have both been suspended one game for conduct detrimental to the team. 'After further investigation into an incident on Thursday night, we concluded that Andray and JaVale conducted themselves in an unprofessional manner,' said Grunfeld. 'As a result, both players will be suspended for tomorrow's game at San Antonio.'" (press release)
According to the Washington Post, Blatche and McGee--2/3 of the Wizards' starting front line--got into a fight with each outside of a nightclub. Punches were thrown. Police were called. Just another night out on the town. For Washington's game tonight in San Antonio, Hilton Armstrong should see extended minutes at center, while Flip Sanders will have to go small for much of the game. That could mean a return to the four position for Rashard Lewis, at least for one night. If it works, maybe we'll see it more often. It's less than thrilling to watch the out-of-shape Blatche haul his expansive hind end up and down the court.

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ON TAP

Tonight in the NBA

WTC  VIS @ HOM,  GAMETIME     NBAPET LINE    OFFICIALS
+13  atl @ nwo,  7:00 PM EST [ nwo by  5 ]   Tom Washington, David Guthrie, Olandis Poole
+ 8  phi @ den,  8:00 PM EST [ den by  5 ]   Derrick Stafford, Bennie Adams, Mark Ayotte
+ 5  mem @ ind,  7:00 PM EST [ ind by  5 ]   Michael Smith, Rodney Mott, Violet Palmer
- 2  phx @ lac,  3:00 PM EST [ phx by  1 ]   Marc Davis, Tommy Nunez Jr., Leon Wood
- 3  chi @ det,  6:00 PM EST [ chi by  8 ]   James Capers, Pat Fraher, Mark Lindsay
- 6  was @ sas,  7:00 PM EST [ sas by 20 ]   Dan Crawford, Matt Boland, Haywoode Workman
-12  min @ cle,  6:00 PM EST [ cle by  2 ]   Bill Spooner, Tony Brothers, Kevin Cutler
Note: WTC is a junk stat rating the "watchability" of a game, taking into
account the quality of the opponents and the likelihood of a close game.

Through Saturday, 436 of 1,230 games (35.4%) have been played in the 2010-11 NBA regular season.

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GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.

You can follow Bradford on Twitter at twitter.com/@bbdoolittle.

The 2010-11 Pro Basketball Prospectus is now available in paperback form on Amazon.com. For sample chapters and more information, see our book page.

Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.

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