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February 22, 2011
Tuesday Truths
Dig-the-Chaos Edition

by John Gasaway

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Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where we look at how well 157 teams in the nation's top 14 conferences are doing against their league opponents on a per-possession basis. For a tidy little homily on why this stuff is so very awesome, go here.

ACC: Presenting my annual reminder that Duke exists

Through games of February 21, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Duke             12-1   68.7    1.11    0.91    +0.20
2.  North Carolina   10-2   70.4    1.04    0.93    +0.11
3.  Virginia Tech     7-5   66.2    1.09    0.99    +0.10
4.  Clemson           7-6   64.1    1.05    0.99    +0.06
5.  Maryland          6-6   69.5    1.07    1.02    +0.05
6.  Florida St.       9-3   69.0    0.98    0.94    +0.04
7.  Georgia Tech      3-9   69.2    0.97    1.01    -0.04
8.  Miami             4-8   63.5    1.04    1.09    -0.05
9.  Boston College    6-6   64.6    1.06    1.12    -0.06
10. NC State          4-8   67.1    1.04    1.11    -0.07
11. Virginia          4-8   61.8    0.93    1.01    -0.08
12. Wake Forest      1-11   70.0    0.89    1.16    -0.27

AVG.                        67.0    1.02

I doubt the Blue Devils will end the regular season looking as good as they do here. Two of their remaining three conference games are on the road, coincidentally against the teams listed here at Nos. 2 and 3. Then again Mike Krzyzewski's team can see a dip in their performance and still end up more or less where they were heading into last year's ACC tournament. Speaking of the lessons of last year, don't write off a Duke team simply because they've suffered a double-digit loss on the road to a Big East opponent. It's happened before. BONUS note of solidarity with Coach K! Krzyzewski doesn't like in-game sideline interviews. I don't either. In fact my reaction when I see one is embarrassment for everyone involved. Coaches, of course, want to wrap up such press availabilities as quickly as possible, and their interlocutors can't possibly ask anything other than some form of "What do you think so far?" If the networks would instead donate that 20 seconds to public-service announcements demanding a no-charge circle on every floor, contentment would reign supreme across our hoops land.

Big 12: Wait, what happened to Baylor?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Texas            11-1   65.4    1.09    0.85    +0.24
2.  Kansas           11-2   70.6    1.18    1.00    +0.18
3.  Missouri          7-5   71.9    1.10    1.03    +0.07
4.  Kansas St.        6-6   67.1    1.05    1.03    +0.02
5.  Texas A&M         8-4   61.2    1.07    1.05    +0.02
6.  Baylor            6-6   65.0    1.04    1.06    -0.02
7.  Nebraska          6-6   64.9    1.00    1.02    -0.02
8.  Colorado          5-7   68.2    1.05    1.07    -0.02
9.  Oklahoma St.      4-9   66.8    0.98    1.07    -0.09
10. Oklahoma          4-8   65.2    0.98    1.08    -0.10
11. Iowa St.         1-11   71.9    0.99    1.11    -0.12
12. Texas Tech        4-8   68.9    1.00    1.14    -0.14

AVG.                        67.3    1.04

It wasn't so long ago that the Bears were giving Duke a great game in the Elite Eight. Heck, even less time has passed since they were ranked in the top 15 in the preseason coaches poll. Alas, Scott Drew's team is now leading a precarious existence on the NCAA tournament bubble, coming off a 78-69 loss at home to Texas Tech. What happened? Fewer points. Last year this team scored 1.14 points per trip against the Big 12. This season, as seen here, that's down to 1.04, right at the league average. What's interesting is how doggedly Baylor is resisting a major-conference trend toward fewer turnovers -- and how! This season BU's given the ball away on an incredible 25 percent of their possessions in Big 12 play, good for 73rd out of 73 major-conference teams. In a magical realm where there were no turnovers, this would be the second-best offense in the conference (1.38 points per effective possession), behind only Kansas (1.44). So, yeah, I guess Tweety Carter is missed. Regular readers know I'm pretty skeptical of the "true point guard" school of sound-bite. But if you're an adherent of said school looking for evidence to back you up, you should definitely point to Baylor in 2011.

Big East: A Red Storm brewing in the polls -- and in Tuesday Truths!

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Pitt             12-2   63.1    1.12    0.97    +0.15
2.  Villanova         9-6   65.0    1.09    1.03    +0.06
3.  Notre Dame       10-4   62.5    1.10    1.05    +0.05
4.  West Virginia     8-6   62.2    1.06    1.01    +0.05
5.  Syracuse         10-6   65.0    1.06    1.01    +0.05
6.  Louisville        9-5   65.6    1.05    1.01    +0.04
7.  Georgetown       10-5   63.4    1.08    1.04    +0.04
8.  Marquette         7-7   65.8    1.11    1.08    +0.03
9.  Cincinnati        8-6   63.2    1.02    1.00    +0.02
10. Connecticut       8-6   65.3    1.03    1.01    +0.02
11. St. John's        9-5   65.6    0.99    1.01    -0.02
12. Seton Hall       5-10   67.5    0.95    0.99    -0.04
13. Rutgers          4-10   64.0    1.03    1.09    -0.06
14. Providence       3-11   71.8    1.00    1.08    -0.08
15. S. Florida       2-13   62.7    0.97    1.09    -0.12
16. DePaul           1-13   66.1    0.98    1.16    -0.18

AVG.                        64.9    1.04

As of this week St. John's is ranked in the top 25, the first time that's been true in almost 11 years. At first glance it may seem like their lofty status is not mirrored here -- yes, they've been outscored to this point in Big East play -- but first glances can be deceiving. During their current five-game Big East winning streak Steve Lavin's team is outscoring opponents by 0.10 points per trip. Over that span offensive rebounds are up, turnovers are down, threes are falling, and SJU is scoring a relatively robust 1.07 points per possession. Dwight Hardy's been a big factor behind the surge, and not just because of that game-winner on Saturday against Pitt at the Garden either. (Though that was nice.) Over this win streak Hardy's been taking fully 31 percent of St. John's shots during his minutes -- which is close to 31 percent of the team's shots period, because he's been on the floor 90 percent of the time in those five wins. Hardy has also hit 48 percent of his threes over that span. And with home games yet to be played against DePaul and South Florida, the Johnnies stand an excellent chance of replacing that "-0.02" with a plus by the time they play on their home floor in the Big East tournament. Good thing, too: it's been six years since a team that was outscored in major-conference play has made the second weekend of the tournament.

Big Ten: Forgive my man-crush on Matt Painter

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Wisconsin        10-4   56.4    1.18    1.06    +0.12
2.  Purdue           11-3   64.6    1.13    1.01    +0.12
3.  Ohio St.         12-2   62.9    1.13    1.02    +0.11
4.  Illinois          7-7   63.8    1.06    1.01    +0.05
5.  Minnesota         6-8   62.1    1.05    1.07    -0.02
6.  Penn St.          7-8   58.3    1.08    1.10    -0.02
7.  Michigan St.      7-7   61.3    1.04    1.09    -0.05
8.  Michigan          7-8   61.0    1.06    1.10    -0.04
9.  Northwestern      6-9   62.8    1.07    1.14    -0.07
10. Indiana          3-11   63.5    1.04    1.11    -0.07
11. Iowa             3-12   64.4    0.99    1.10    -0.11

AVG.                        61.9    1.08

In a league where teams aren't supposed to go faster, Purdue's chosen to go faster. (Hey, averaging 65 possessions a game in the Big Ten is equivalent to averaging 70 in the Pac-10.) And forget the supposedly mandatory quest for a third scorer, the Boilermakers are doing just fine with two. (Though it helps if the two are E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson.) I can't remember the last time I saw such a deep rotation combined with two stars absorbing such a large share of the shots on offense. And if you saw the Boilers win against Wisconsin and Ohio State last week, you probably came away thinking that the pace, the rotation, and the confidence to ride your two stars on offense all constitute the correct choices. Sure, those wins came at home, but over the course of the season Purdue, as seen here, has been as good as the Buckeyes and Badgers. (That is to say really good.) I don't know who the third-best team in the Big Ten is, but whoever they are they're better than the third-best team in any other conference in the nation.

Pac-10: Also, Oregon's way better than I expected

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Washington       10-5   72.2    1.13    0.99    +0.14
2.  Arizona          12-2   68.9    1.10    1.02    +0.08
3.  UCLA             10-4   66.5    1.03    0.99    +0.04
4.  USC               7-7   63.7    1.01    0.99    +0.02
5.  Washington St.    7-8   68.9    1.00    1.00     0.00
6.  Oregon            7-7   66.6    0.99    1.00    -0.01
7.  Cal               7-8   67.3    1.10    1.12    -0.02
8.  Stanford          6-9   65.5    0.98    1.01    -0.03
9.  Oregon St.       4-10   69.6    0.93    1.04    -0.11
10. Arizona St.      2-12   64.6    0.97    1.11    -0.14

AVG.                        67.4    1.02

I was fairly loquacious on the topic of the Pac-10 yesterday. Make haste!

SEC: Defense returns to Gainesville

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Alabama          10-2   66.1    1.04    0.90    +0.14
2.  Kentucky          7-5   67.3    1.10    0.97    +0.13
3.  Florida          10-2   63.3    1.09    0.98    +0.11
4.  Vanderbilt        8-4   66.2    1.11    1.05    +0.06
5.  Georgia           7-5   66.3    1.05    1.01    +0.04
6.  Tennessee         6-6   64.3    1.02    0.98    +0.04
7.  Ole Miss          5-7   66.5    1.05    1.06    -0.01
8.  Mississippi St.   6-6   68.7    0.99    1.01    -0.02
9.  Arkansas          5-7   65.5    0.98    1.02    -0.04
10. South Carolina    4-8   66.0    0.95    1.06    -0.11
11. Auburn           2-10   66.7    0.90    1.06    -0.16
12. LSU              2-10   64.8    0.85    1.05    -0.20

AVG.                        66.0    1.01

Florida may not be in the same weight-class as Alabama when it comes to defense (few teams are), but let it be known that Billy Donovan's group has improved markedly on that side of the ball since last year. That, plus an offense that (as always) is very good has the Gators sitting atop the SEC East as they prepare for a visit from Georgia on Thursday. The secret of Florida's success on D can be tough to admire in real time. Basically Donovan's team limits you to one shot and rarely fouls. Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus, and Vernon Macklin aren't terribly impressive on the defensive boards individually, but as a team UF has pulled down 71 percent of their SEC opponents' misses. It's not likely to make you archive the game on your DVR but it gets the job done.

A-10: I want to see (gasp!) a non-conference game in late February

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Xavier           11-1   65.3    1.18    0.99    +0.19
2.  Duquesne          9-3   70.6    1.08    0.91    +0.17
3.  Temple           11-2   66.3    1.09    0.94    +0.15
4.  Richmond         10-3   62.8    1.13    1.03    +0.10
5.  Dayton            7-6   66.5    1.00    0.99    +0.01
6.  GW                7-5   64.2    1.04    1.04    -0.01
7.  Rhode Island      7-5   65.6    0.97    0.98    -0.01
8.  St. Bonaventure   6-6   64.2    1.03    1.05    -0.02
9.  Saint Louis       4-9   63.3    0.95    0.98    -0.03
10. UMass             6-6   65.5    0.97    1.01    -0.04
11. La Salle          4-8   72.0    1.01    1.08    -0.07
12. Charlotte        2-10   65.7    0.96    1.05    -0.09
13. Saint Joseph's   2-10   61.8    0.99    1.12    -0.13
14. Fordham          0-12   67.7    0.90    1.12    -0.22

AVG.                        65.8    1.02

Since losing at Xavier by 11 on January 22, Temple has exhibited admirable mastery over the teams beneath them in the A-10. Winners of eight straight, the Owls have maintained their normal level of D (excellent) while scoring 1.14 points per trip on offense over that span. And with December wins over Maryland and Georgetown, Fran Dunphy's team seems to be in good shape for an at-large bid. All of which is to say I am very much looking forward to seeing Temple take the court at Cameron Indoor against Duke tomorrow night. The Owls have been stockpiling wins quietly for a month now. Time to haul this team out under the bright lights and see what they have for us.

Colonial: Mason passes its road test

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  George Mason     14-2   64.8    1.17    0.94    +0.23
2.  Old Dominion     12-4   58.8    1.04    0.94    +0.10
3.  VCU              12-4   62.7    1.10    1.03    +0.07
4.  James Madison     9-7   66.7    1.08    1.02    +0.06
5.  Hofstra          12-4   65.3    1.10    1.07    +0.03
6.  Drexel            9-7   62.3    0.95    0.94    +0.01
7.  UNC-Wilmington    7-9   61.9    1.02    1.08    -0.06
8.  William & Mary   3-13   62.6    1.04    1.10    -0.06
9.  Delaware          7-9   61.0    0.99    1.06    -0.07
10. Northeastern     5-11   61.0    1.07    1.15    -0.08
11. Georgia St.      6-10   63.2    0.93    1.01    -0.08
12. Towson           0-16   62.2    1.03    1.20    -0.17

AVG.                        62.7    1.04

Last week George Mason won at VCU 71-51, then journeyed to Cedar Falls, Iowa, where the Patriots beat Northern Iowa 77-71 in their BracketBusters game. That six-point win against the Panthers marks the closest game Jim Larranaga's team has played since they won by two at James Madison on January 22. Over the past month Mason has won their games by 20, 26, 16, 19, 17, 15, 14, 20, and six points. The Patriots close the regular season at home against Northeastern and at Georgia State. Barring surprises there, we're about to find out how important it is for a team to have "momentum" as they enter the postseason. George Mason has momentum.

C-USA: There are no nights off (cont.)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  UTEP              8-4   63.3    1.04    0.97    +0.07
2.  Tulsa             8-4   64.6    1.05    0.99    +0.06
3.  Southern Miss     9-4   64.8    1.11    1.06    +0.05
4.  UAB               9-4   62.3    1.04    1.00    +0.04
5.  Marshall          6-6   65.9    1.05    1.02    +0.03
6.  Memphis           8-4   67.2    0.99    0.97    +0.02
7.  SMU               7-5   61.0    1.05    1.04    +0.01
8.  Rice              4-8   64.5    1.00    1.04    -0.04
9.  East Carolina     5-7   65.5    1.01    1.06    -0.05
10. Houston           4-8   63.6    1.02    1.08    -0.06
11. UCF               4-9   64.2    0.99    1.06    -0.07
12. Tulane           2-11   63.0    1.01    1.09    -0.08

AVG.                        64.2    1.03

Remember last week when I drew attention to the highly competitive C-USA? Well, yesterday UTEP lost at home to UCF, an outcome that both encapsulated and enhanced this league's historic degree of sameness in performance. As seen here the Miners are now just 0.15 points better than Tulane, on average, on each possession. That is a ridiculously small qualitative space in which to fit no fewer than 12 teams. In Tuesday Truths' feisty but admittedly brief history the closest thing to the 2011 C-USA would be last year's Pac-10, which managed to stuff ten teams into a space just 0.21 points wide per possession. The good news is you should definitely attend a C-USA game if at all possible. Said game is almost guaranteed to be closely contested. The bad news, well, don't worry about the bad news. It's not due to arrive until March, when an entrant from this oh-so-horizontal league takes the floor against an opponent who's emerged victorious from a more vertical realm.

Horizon: I predict a "Don't Look Now, But..." headline in the very near future

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Cleveland St.    12-4   66.5    1.09    0.98    +0.11
2.  Butler           12-5   64.2    1.11    1.02    +0.09
3.  Valparaiso       11-5   66.5    1.04    0.97    +0.07
4.  Wright St.       10-7   62.1    1.04    1.01    +0.03
5.  Detroit           9-8   69.9    1.06    1.05    +0.01
6.  Milwaukee        11-5   65.4    1.04    1.03    +0.01
7.  Green Bay         7-9   66.2    1.03    1.04    -0.01
8.  Loyola           6-10   65.2    1.02    1.04    -0.02
9.  UIC              2-15   65.0    0.95    1.07    -0.12
10. Youngstown St.   2-14   69.4    0.95    1.10    -0.15

AVG.                        66.0    1.03

Since hitting rock bottom, which in the Horizon is defined as losing at Youngstown State, Butler has won six straight. The Bulldogs' stretch run may not mean anything in terms of a regular-season championship, which Cleveland State can still win outright with victories at home over Milwaukee (Thursday) and Green Bay (Sunday). But the late spurt by Brad Stevens' team has been both impressive in its quantity (BU's outscored the Horizon by 0.19 points per possession over six games) and familiar in its quality. The surge has been driven by 2010-variety defense, which was in conspicuously short supply over Butler's first 11 Horizon games. Not to say there's anything else 2010-variety about this team yet, but the Bulldogs are in better shape than they had any reason to hope three weeks ago.

Missouri Valley: Wichita State needs to stay out of Wichita

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Wichita St.      13-3   63.5    1.12    0.93    +0.19
2.  Missouri St.     13-3   61.8    1.10    1.01    +0.09
3.  Creighton         9-7   62.0    1.09    1.03    +0.06
4.  Indiana St.      10-6   64.6    1.02    0.98    +0.04
5.  N. Iowa          10-6   59.3    1.07    1.05    +0.02
6.  Evansville        8-8   65.2    0.98    1.01    -0.03
7.  Drake            6-10   63.8    0.97    1.03    -0.06
8.  Bradley          3-13   64.3    1.01    1.10    -0.09
9.  S. Illinois      5-11   62.6    0.93    1.03    -0.10
10. Illinois St.     3-13   61.5    0.94    1.06    -0.12

AVG.                        62.9    1.02

The Shockers were the home team for their BracketBusters game against VCU on Friday night and they lost 68-67. The week before that Gregg Marshall's team lost at home to Southern Illinois. In January WSU lost at home to Northern Iowa and Missouri State. In Missouri Valley play the Shockers are 5-3 at home and 8-0 on the road, a disparity mirrored in their per-possession performance in conference games (+0.17 at home, +0.22 on the road). Playing at home is supposed to be more important in college basketball than in just about any other sport, so how can this be? I don't know, ask Tom Izzo. Last year in Big Ten play, Michigan State was better on the road, per-possession, than they were at home. (And, like the Spartans last year, Wichita State this year is an outstanding rebounding team. Interesting.) Anyway, the good news for the Shockers is that their season-ending showdown against Missouri State will be a road game.

Mountain West: Showdown II, Saturday!

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  BYU              11-1   71.0    1.15    0.95    +0.20
2.  San Diego St.    12-1   64.1    1.08    0.91    +0.17
3.  Colorado St.      8-4   67.0    1.03    0.98    +0.05
4.  UNLV              8-5   66.4    1.01    0.96    +0.05
5.  New Mexico        5-7   66.5    1.05    1.01    +0.04
6.  Utah              5-8   68.1    0.98    1.05    -0.07
7.  Air Force         4-8   60.5    0.98    1.08    -0.10
8.  Wyoming          2-10   66.0    0.94    1.09    -0.15
9.  TCU              1-12   65.7    0.94    1.11    -0.17

AVG.                        66.1    1.03

Alright, first BYU has to play Colorado State in Provo tomorrow night. Duly noted. But if the Cougars can make it past the Rams unscathed, their rematch with San Diego State on Saturday in San Diego looms as the largest Mountain West game since, well, January 26, when the Aztecs traveled to Utah and came away with a 71-58 loss. The most impressive number that either team will bring into that contest is this: 26.8. That's the percentage of threes that Mountain West opponents have made against San Diego State this season. Of course, you may remember the aforementioned game on January 26, when a certain somewhat well known Cougar made 5-of-8 threes on his way to 43 points. I trust the Aztecs remember it too. And with the relatively well-known player mired in a stretch of relative normalcy on the perimeter (13-of-38), is SDSU about to even this score? Or will Dave Rose's team confirm its supremacy? National POY ramifications, some really high NCAA seeds, and, oh yeah the Mountain West title. All on the line at Viejas Arena on Saturday morning, 11 local time.

West Coast: Gonzaga clamps down

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Saint Mary's     10-2   66.5    1.16    1.01    +0.15
2.  Gonzaga           9-3   67.1    1.13    0.98    +0.15
3.  Portland          6-6   64.0    1.08    1.04    +0.04
4.  San Francisco     8-4   69.3    1.02    1.01    +0.01
5.  Santa Clara       6-6   66.1    1.03    1.04    -0.01
6.  Pepperdine        5-7   66.8    1.00    1.08    -0.08
7.  Loyola Marymount 2-10   66.3    0.99    1.10    -0.11
8.  San Diego        2-10   63.1    0.91    1.07    -0.16

AVG.                        66.1    1.04

I know the West Coast was supposed to be all sewn up once Saint Mary's won at Gonzaga on January 27, but it hasn't worked out that way. For one thing the Gaels lost at San Diego last week. The Toreros entered that game 5-21 but came away with the W, thanks to a 50-point second half. Fresh off that amazing event SMC lost 75-65 at home to Utah State in their BracketBusters game. There's no shame attached to losing to the Aggies, even at home, but one does have to wonder about the confidence of any team that has to look itself in the mirror and say: We gave up 50 points to San Diego in 20 minutes. The state of that confidence is worthy of speculation because Gonzaga will be in Moraga Thursday night, and the Bulldogs have been playing great. Since that aforementioned loss to Saint Mary's a little more than three weeks ago, Mark Few's team has won six in a row by holding opponents to a pre-Nebraska Texas-like 0.86 points per trip. Zags-Gaels, Thursday: a showdown worth staying up for.

WAC: Yes, these numbers do look familiar

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Utah St.         12-1   63.5    1.11    0.92    +0.19
2.  New Mexico St.    8-4   69.7    1.04    0.97    +0.07
3.  Idaho             7-6   65.9    1.03    0.98    +0.05
4.  Nevada            7-5   67.6    1.07    1.03    +0.04
5.  Boise St.         7-6   67.5    1.02    1.02     0.00
6.  Fresno St.        5-8   65.4    0.99    1.05    -0.06
7.  Hawaii            5-7   66.1    0.94    1.03    -0.09
8.  San Jose St.      3-9   68.9    0.99    1.10    -0.11
9.  Louisiana Tech   2-10   66.5    0.89    1.00    -0.11

AVG.                        66.8    1.01

In fact these numbers are exactly the same as they were last week. The WAC took the week off, at least as far as playing each other. All nine teams participated in BracketBusters, where the league did more than just win at Saint Mary's (see above). Overall the conference compiled a laudable 8-1 record. Only a two-point win by the Big Sky's Northern Colorado at New Mexico State spoiled the WAC's bid for a BracketBusters Larsen. Maybe next year.

John uses fewer decimal points on Twitter: @JohnGasaway. College Basketball Prospectus 2010-11 is now available on Amazon.

John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.

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