Home Unfiltered Articles Players Baseball Prospectus
Basketball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Click here for Important Basketball Prospectus Premium Information!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Memphis is Not a Top-1... (11/08)
<< Previous Column
Sim Season (11/07)
Next Column >>
Sim Season (11/09)
Next Article >>
Premium Article No Repeat (11/08)

November 8, 2011
Sim Season
Ouch

by Bradford Doolittle

Printer-
friendly
Contact
Author

Randomness. It's a part of sports. It's a part of life. And in any simulation that purports to mirror the real thing it emulates, randomness is a part of that, too.

Randomness bit the Golden State Warriors on Monday when star point guard Stephen Curry went down in the first quarter of a loss to San Antonio. Curry will miss five games, during which we'll see more of rookies Charles Jenkins and Klay Thompson.

Variation is inherent to sports statistics, both real and simulated. I have received emails from well-meaning readers who were concerned that Player X has done Statistic Y in the early going. They wonder if something might be amiss with our simulation machinery, which is of course the time-tested miracle of Strat-O-Matic. No, there is nothing amiss.

I'll reiterate what I wrote when this project was announced: Strat-O-Matic is uncanny in both the accuracy of its results and in its ability to capture the nuances of the real-life action. One of those nuances is statistical variation. It's entirely possible for the end-of-the-bench scrub to be thrust into a more prominent role because of an injury and respond with a 17-point, 8-of-10 shooting performance. It's also possible for the league's biggest star to lay an egg now and again. It happens in real life. It happens in Strat.

The proof in the accuracy pudding can be found in aggregate results. A season-long simulation of last year's NBA--using Strat-O-Matic--is going to look very much like the real thing. A whole bunch of simulations tallied together are going to yield even more true-to-life results. But we're just running the simulation once. Why? Because we want to capture the random element that is so important in real-life professional sports.

If it's merely a matter of churning out the same stat lines again and again, there would be no point. So I beseech you: Embrace the randomness.

There was plenty of randomness last night, through which we've played the 50 games the NBA hasn't as part of Sim Season, our Strat-O-Matic simulation of the locked out 2011-12 season. We'll be doing this every day, so check back tomorrow for the results of tonight's action. You can follow me on Twitter for periodic updates. Watch for the #simseason hashtag.

LOOK >>> Strat-O-Matic veterans already know this, but the newest version of SOM's Computer Basketball Game (Version 9.0) was recently released. As it happens, our favorite gaming company is offering a discount for all you lockout-weary fans who want to run your own simulations. Or maybe you just want to match wits with a fellow hoops fan, no matter where in the world he/she may reside. All you have to do is go to this page to place an order. When you check out, just enter the discount code LOCKOUT to get 15% knocked off the listed price.

NOTE: The offer has been extended and now expires at 11:59 p.m. EST on Nov. 20. Enjoy!

NUGGETS 112, CAVALIERS 82: The Nuggets had six players score in double figures, held a 24-7 edge at the line and won their third game in as many outings. Kyrie Irving put up 16 points, five boards and seven assists for Cleveland. Last June's top pick is now averaging 13.8 points and 6.3 assists over his first four pro games.

STRAT-O-MATIC BOX SCORE
CLEVELAND                   17 27 21 17   82
DENVER                      23 31 31 27  112

                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
A.JAMISON    23   6 22  27  0  3   0  3  6  50 -20   1  4  5  0  3  0  1  0  15
B.DAVIS      26   5 15  33  1  8  12  0  0     -18   1  1  2  8  3  0  2  0  11
A.VAREJAO    29   0  3   0  0  0      1  2  50 -22   1  9 10  1  4  0  0  2   1
O.CASSPI     18   3  8  38  1  5  20  0  2   0 -18   0  2  2  0  2  0  0  0   7
K.IRVING     33   6 10  60  2  3  67  2  2 100 -26   3  2  5  7  2  1  4  0  16
R.SESSIONS   19   1  6  17  0  0      1  1 100 -16   0  1  1  0  2  0  0  0   3
D.GIBSON     18   4  8  50  0  3   0  0  0       0   0  2  2  3  1  0  0  0   8
R.HOLLINS    14   1  2  50  0  0      0  0     -13   3  0  3  0  0  0  1  2   2
A.GEE         6   0  1   0  0  0      0  0       2   0  1  1  2  1  0  0  0   0
C.EYENGA     24   4  8  50  1  4  25  0  0     -14   0  4  4  1  3  2  1  0   9
S.SAMUELS     6   2  2 100  0  0      0  0       3   1  1  2  0  0  0  1  0   4
T.THOMPSON   24   3  4  75  0  0      0  0      -8   1  4  5  0  2  1  2  3   6
CLEVELAND    48  35 89  39  5 26  19  7 13  54      11 31 42 22 23  4 12  7  82
                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
A.AFFLALO    41   5 10  50  1  4  25  2  2 100  15   0  3  3  6  2  1  1  1  13
N.HILARIO    30   6  9  67  0  0      5  5 100  26   1  5  6  0  2  1  2  1  17
D.GALLINARI  34   6 15  40  1  3  33  4  5  80  24   0  7  7  0  1  0  1  0  17
T.LAWSON     29   5 10  50  2  4  50  2  4  50  24   1  4  5  4  3  0  0  0  14
K.FARIED     24   1  8  12  0  0      2  4  50  17   2  3  5  0  5  2  2  1   4
A.HARRINGTON 22   5  6  83  2  3  67  0  0       9   0  5  5  0  0  1  1  0  12
G.FORBES      4   1  2  50  0  0      3  4  75   8   0  3  3  0  0  0  0  1   5
C.ANDERSEN   14   2  3  67  0  0      2  4  50   2   1  2  3  1  1  0  0  1   6
K.KOUFOS      3   1  2  50  0  0      0  0       5   2  0  2  0  0  0  0  0   2
A.MILLER     22   6 12  50  1  2  50  1  2  50  13   1  5  6  2  1  1  1  0  14
J.HAMILTON   17   2  6  33  1  3  33  3  4  75   7   3  2  5  4  1  1  0  0   8
DENVER       48  40 83  48  8 19  42 24 34  71      11 39 50 17 16  7  8  5 112

CLEVELAND                   DENVER
     Fast Break Pts  18          Fast Break Pts  14
  Second Chance Pts  10       Second Chance Pts  10
Points in the Paint  26     Points In the Paint  30
       Biggest Lead   3            Biggest Lead  30

BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS BOX SCORE
CLE (1-3)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  DEN (3-0)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
irving,kyrie.........69%  20%  1.48  -26 19.3  miller,andre.........46%  29%  1.12  +13 17.5
davis,baron..........54%  30%  0.91  -18 14.6  hilario,nene.........63%  19%  1.22  +26 16.8
jamison,antawn.......48%  53%  0.49  -20 12.9  gallinari,danilo.....71%  24%  0.91  +24 15.9
eyenga,christian.....50%  16%  1.17  -14  8.9  afflalo,arron........85%  12%  1.54  +15 15.6
gibson,daniel........38%  19%  1.18    0  7.8  lawson,ty............60%  18%  1.47  +24 15.3
casspi,omri..........38%  22%  0.76  -18  6.9  harrington,al........46%  13%  2.04  + 9 13.3
thompson,tristan.....50%  10%  1.31  - 8  6.3  hamilton,jordan......35%  20%  1.58  + 7 10.8
samuels,samardo......13%  22%  1.36  + 3  3.5  andersen,chris.......29%  14%  1.45  + 2  6.2
varejao,anderson.....60%   4%  1.33  -22  3.4  forbes,gary.......... 8%  45%  1.31  + 8  4.5
hollins,ryan.........29%   8%  1.27  -13  2.8  faried,kenneth.......50%  22%  0.37  +17  4.3
sessions,ramon.......40%  14%  0.35  -16  1.9  koufos,kosta......... 6%  31%  1.19  + 5  2.2
gee,alonzo...........13%   6%  1.86  + 2  1.3  mozgov,timofey.......(DNP)  
PACE: 91.5          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 91.5          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
CAVALIERS........   89.6 .421  .220 .131 .062  NUGGETS..........  122.4 .530  .262 .087 .163

---

MAVERICKS 102, RAPTORS 100: The Mavericks evened their record at 2-2, but it required quite a comeback and quite a finish to escape with the road win. Toronto jumped out to a 16-point first quarter lead behind eight points apiece from James Johnson and DeMar DeRozan. Dallas finally caught up on a Jason Kidd three-pointer early in the second half, but the Raptors recovered and built a 14-point bulge on Leandro Barbosa's trey with 9:52 to play. From there, the Mavericks reeled off 10 straight, six by Dirk Nowitzki. The Mavericks went ahead on Jason Terry's fastbreak layup with 2:21 to play and Nowitzki capped an eight-point run with another transition bucket. The Raptors responded, getting a traditional three-point play and four free throws from Andrea Bargnani. The latter pair of charity tosses came with 22 seconds to play and put the Raptors up by a point. Kidd pushed the ball up for Dallas, dished to Shawn Marion, who handed off to Nowitzki at the three-point line ... BANG! The Mavericks were up a deuce and Toronto coach Dwane Casey signaled for a timeout. On the inbounds, Bargnani popped out to receive the pass, handed to DeRozan and cut for the basket. DeRozan dumped to the slashing Bargnani who went up for a runner which was ... REJECTED! ... by Dallas' Tyson Chandler. Ballgame.

STRAT-O-MATIC BOX SCORE
DALLAS                      14 27 24 37  102
TORONTO                     30 18 26 26  100

                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
J.KIDD       42   5 12  42  3  9  33  0  0       3   0  6  6  8  0  2  4  0  13
J.TERRY      34   6 13  46  1  5  20  0  0      -7   0  0  0  5  2  0  1  0  13
D.NOWITZKI   31   8 21  38  1  4  25  7  7 100  15   1  3  4  2  4  0  1  0  24
S.MARION     36   8 15  53  0  1   0  0  0      -7   5  3  8  2  0  0  2  1  16
T.CHANDLER   35   6  9  67  0  0      3  6  50  -1   4  7 11  2  5  2  0  1  15
J.BAREA      17   4  5  80  1  1 100  2  2 100   9   0  0  0  4  0  0  1  0  11
B.HAYWOOD    15   1  1 100  0  0      0  0       7   3  0  3  0  5  0  0  1   2
P.STOJAKOVIC 11   1  5  20  1  2  50  2  3  67 -15   0  1  1  1  0  0  1  0   5
I.MAHINMI     2   0  0      0  0      0  2   0  -3   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
R.FERNANDEZ  17   1  2  50  1  1 100  0  0       9   0  3  3  1  1  0  2  0   3
DALLAS       48  40 83  48  8 23  35 14 20  70      13 23 36 25 17  4 12  3 102
                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
D.DEROZAN    37  10 15  67  0  0      1  1 100   4   4  4  8  2  5  1  1  0  21
A.BARGNANI   36   9 22  41  0  3   0 10 11  91  -2   2  8 10  1  5  0  3  0  28
J.CALDERON   31   5 10  50  0  0      0  0       7   0  3  3 13  2  1  3  0  10
E.DAVIS      28   3  6  50  0  0      0  0     -14   3  3  6  2  2  0  0  1   6
J.JOHNSON    21   4  5  80  0  1   0  2  3  67  -2   1  1  2  3  2  0  0  0  10
A.JOHNSON    27   0  6   0  0  0      1  2  50   6   2  4  6  0  3  0  0  0   1
J.BAYLESS    19   2  2 100  1  1 100  0  0      -6   1  4  5  2  3  1  3  0   5
L.BARBOSA    19   6 10  60  1  4  25  0  0     -10   0  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  13
L.KLEIZA     17   2  9  22  0  1   0  0  0       1   2  1  3  2  0  2  0  1   4
R.EVANS       5   1  1 100  0  0      0  0       6   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   2
TORONTO      48  42 86  49  2 10  20 14 17  82      15 28 43 27 22  5 10  2 100

DALLAS                      TORONTO
     Fast Break Pts  12          Fast Break Pts  18
  Second Chance Pts  10       Second Chance Pts  18
Points in the Paint  38     Points In the Paint  36
       Biggest Lead   4            Biggest Lead  16

BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS BOX SCORE
DAL (2-2)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  TOR (1-3)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
nowitzki,dirk........65%  39%  0.88  +15 23.0  bargnani,andrea......75%  41%  0.83  - 2 25.5
kidd,jason...........88%  17%  1.46  + 3 20.6  derozan,demar........77%  20%  1.32  + 4 20.9
chandler,tyson.......73%  14%  1.61  - 1 17.6  calderon,jose........65%  19%  1.53  + 7 18.5
marion,shawn.........75%  22%  1.10  - 7 16.5  barbosa,leandro......40%  25%  1.35  -10 13.3
barea,jose...........35%  18%  2.01  + 9 14.3  johnson,james........44%  12%  1.91  - 2 11.0
terry,jason..........71%  18%  1.13  - 7 13.8  davis,ed.............58%   8%  1.73  -14  8.5
stojakovic,peja......23%  32%  0.82  -15  6.3  bayless,jerryd.......40%  10%  1.76  - 6  7.8
fernandez,rudy.......35%   9%  1.38  + 9  4.5  kleiza,linas.........35%  25%  0.78  + 1  7.0
haywood,brendan......31%   0%  7.43  + 7  1.9  johnson,amir.........56%  10%  0.31  + 6  2.0
mahinmi,ian.......... 4%  20%  0.00  - 3  0.0  evans,reggie.........10%   7%  2.21  + 6  1.8
beaubois,rodrigue....(DNP)                     alabi,soloman........(DNP)  
jones,dominique......(DNP)                     ajinca,alexis........(DNP)  
PACE: 86.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 86.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
MAVERICKS........  118.5 .530  .317 .139 .102  RAPTORS..........  116.2 .500  .395 .116 .087

---

KINGS 106, LAKERS 102: Marcus Thornton scored 23 points off the bench and Jimmer Fredette had a nice outing with 17 points--on 6-of-10 shooting--and six assists as the Kings broke into the win column. Sacramento led for most of the game, never by more than 10, but was able to keep the Lakers at arm's length. Ron Artest--yes, we're still calling him that--hit a three with 15 seconds left to pull L.A. within three. Shannon Brown fouled Tyreke Evans, who sank one of two to seal the win. Evans had 21 points, six rebounds and 13 assists for the Kings, who grabbed more than a third of their own misses and held a 12-5 edge in second-chance points.

STRAT-O-MATIC BOX SCORE
LOS ANGELES L               21 31 25 25  102
SACRAMENTO                  29 23 25 29  106

                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
P.GASOL      41   7 19  37  0  0      5  7  71  -7   3  7 10  4  3  1  4  1  19
K.BRYANT     26   4 11  36  1  5  20  8 10  80 -11   0  5  5  3  6  2  6  0  17
R.ARTEST     37   4 11  36  2  7  29  0  0      -4   0  4  4  4  3  3  0  0  10
D.FISHER     27   5  9  56  1  3  33  0  0       7   0  0  0  0  5  1  3  0  11
A.BYNUM      23   4  7  57  0  0      2  6  33  11   3  0  3  1  3  0  0  1  10
L.ODOM       31   8 11  73  1  1 100  1  4  25  -7   1  8  9  2  1  0  0  0  18
S.BLAKE      20   3  3 100  2  2 100  0  0      -4   0  4  4  4  0  0  0  0   8
S.BROWN      19   3  7  43  1  4  25  0  0      -4   1  1  2  3  3  2  0  1   7
M.BARNES      8   0  1   0  0  0      0  0      -9   1  0  1  0  5  0  3  0   0
D.CARACTER    1   0  0      0  0      0  0      -3   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
D.EBANKS      3   0  0      0  0      2  2 100   7   0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0   2
T.RATLIFF     4   0  0      0  0      0  2   0   4   0  0  0  1  1  0  0  0   0
LOS ANGELES  48  38 79  48  8 22  36 18 31  58       9 29 38 23 30  9 16  3 102
                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
D.COUSINS    32   7 15  47  1  1 100  1  4  25   1   2  8 10  1  5  1  4  3  16
T.EVANS      38   9 16  56  1  3  33  2  6  33  10   2  4  6 13  1  1  1  1  21
J.HICKSON    26   3  9  33  0  0      1  2  50   7   5  8 13  0  6  1  2  0   7
J.SALMONS    35   1  9  11  0  1   0  3  4  75   8   0  3  3  5  1  1  3  0   5
J.FREDETTE   31   6 10  60  1  4  25  4  4 100   0   1  3  4  6  2  0  2  0  17
S.DALEMBERT  18   5  6  83  0  1   0  1  2  50   5   2  4  6  0  1  0  0  2  11
M.THORNTON   27   7 15  47  2  6  33  7  7 100  -2   2  2  4  4  1  1  1  0  23
J.THOMPSON   20   3  5  60  0  0      0  0      -5   3  1  4  1  4  0  1  0   6
F.GARCIA     11   0  2   0  0  2   0  0  0      -1   0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0   0
I.THOMAS      2   0  0      0  0      0  0      -3   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
SACRAMENTO   48  41 87  47  5 18  28 19 29  66      17 33 50 30 22  5 14  6 106

LOS ANGELES L               SACRAMENTO
     Fast Break Pts  12          Fast Break Pts  20
  Second Chance Pts   5       Second Chance Pts  12
Points in the Paint  34     Points In the Paint  30
       Biggest Lead   6            Biggest Lead  10

BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS BOX SCORE
LAL (3-2)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  SAC (1-3)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
gasol,pau............85%  28%  0.82  - 7 20.5  evans,tyreke.........79%  21%  1.63  +10 26.1
odom,lamar...........65%  17%  1.60  - 7 18.7  thornton,marcus......56%  31%  1.33  - 2 21.0
artest,ron...........77%  12%  1.39  - 4 15.7  fredette,jimmer......65%  18%  1.58    0 18.6
bryant,kobe..........54%  37%  0.79  -11 14.8  cousins,demarcus.....67%  28%  0.86  + 1 16.0
blake,steve..........42%   5%  5.17  - 4 11.9  dalembert,samuel.....38%  15%  1.83  + 5  9.8
bynum,andrew.........48%  18%  1.02  +11  9.0  hickson,j.j..........54%  18%  0.78  + 7  8.1
brown,shannon........40%  15%  1.43  - 4  7.9  salmons,john.........73%  15%  0.70  + 8  7.9
fisher,derek.........56%  19%  0.76  + 7  7.0  thompson,jason.......42%  11%  1.19  - 5  4.9
ebanks,devin......... 6%  12%  2.86  + 7  2.2  garcia,francisco.....23%   5%  0.00  - 1  0.0
ratliff,theo......... 8%   8%  0.56  + 4  0.4  thomas,isaiah........(DNP)  
barnes,matt..........17%  22%  0.00  - 9  0.0  jackson,darnell......(DNP)  
ratliff,theo.........(DNP)                     greene,donte.........(DNP)  
PACE: 94.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 94.3          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
LAKERS...........  108.2 .532  .214 .170 .145  KINGS............  112.4 .500  .370 .149 .135

---

NETS 88, BUCKS 84: Who's the only unbeaten team in the East? Who's leading the NBA in rebounding. The answers: The Nets and Kris Humphries. Take that Kim K! Deron Williams scored 28 and Brook Lopez added 27 as New Jersey improved to 3-0. Humphries led all rebounders with 11 boards, all on the defensive end. Rookie Jordan Williams added eight points and 10 boards off the bench. Milwaukee, which rode an early blowout of the Knicks to the top spot in the power rankings we unveiled yesterday, got a 9-of-25 shooting performance from Stephen Jackson and a 4-of-14 showing from Brandon Jennings. That's pretty much the recipe for a Bucks loss.

STRAT-O-MATIC BOX SCORE
MILWAUKEE                   23 18 31 12   84
NEW JERSEY                  26 17 22 23   88

                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
A.BOGUT      35   2  6  33  0  0      0  2   0  -8   1  9 10  3  4  0  3  1   4
B.JENNINGS   32   4 14  29  2  7  29  3  6  50 -10   0  2  2  6  0  2  0  0  13
L.MOUTE      23   1  3  33  0  1   0  0  2   0  -6   2  3  5  3  2  0  1  0   2
C.DELFINO    35   3  9  33  0  4   0  2  2 100  -6   2  3  5  0  3  1  0  0   8
S.JACKSON    41   9 25  36  4  8  50  3  3 100  -6   1  5  6  5  5  1  2  1  25
E.ILYASOVA   19   5  6  83  1  1 100  2  2 100   8   1  4  5  0  2  0  1  0  13
L.SANDERS    13   1  5  20  0  0      2  4  50   4   1  2  3  0  3  0  0  0   4
D.GOODEN     20   2  9  22  0  0      3  4  75  -2   3  6  9  1  2  0  3  1   7
B.UDRIH      16   3  5  60  1  2  50  1  2  50   6   0  3  3  1  1  1  0  0   8
S.LIVINGSTON  2   0  0      0  0      0  0       0   0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0   0
T.HARRIS      4   0  0      0  0      0  0       0   0  1  1  0  0  0  0  0   0
MILWAUKEE    48  30 82  37  8 23  35 16 27  59      11 38 49 20 22  5 10  3  84
                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
B.LOPEZ      36   8 16  50  0  0     11 13  85   8   1  4  5  0  1  0  2  2  27
D.WILLIAMS   39   8 16  50  3  7  43  9 10  90   8   0  5  5  6  1  1  0  0  28
T.OUTLAW     24   1  6  17  1  4  25  0  0       9   0  3  3  1  2  1  1  0   3
K.HUMPHRIES  28   2  3  67  0  0      3  4  75  12   0 11 11  2  3  1  2  1   7
A.MORROW     31   1  4  25  0  1   0  0  0      -1   0  4  4  6  4  0  1  0   2
J.FARMAR     18   1  7  14  1  4  25  0  0      -3   0  0  0  4  1  1  0  0   3
S.GRAHAM      1   0  0      0  0      0  0      -3   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
J.PETRO       9   0  1   0  0  0      0  0      -4   1  1  2  0  3  0  0  0   0
B.WRIGHT      2   0  0      0  0      0  0       0   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
D.JAMES       9   2  3  67  0  0      0  0      -4   0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0   4
M.BROOKS     23   2  7  29  0  0      2  2 100   6   0  5  5  0  2  0  4  0   6
J.WILLIAMS   20   3 10  30  0  0      2  2 100  -8   3  7 10  0  4  0  2  0   8
NEW JERSEY   48  28 73  38  5 16  31 27 31  87       5 40 45 19 22  4 12  3  88

MILWAUKEE                   NEW JERSEY
     Fast Break Pts   6          Fast Break Pts  14
  Second Chance Pts   8       Second Chance Pts   0
Points in the Paint  20     Points In the Paint  18
       Biggest Lead  10            Biggest Lead  11

BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS BOX SCORE
MIL (2-2)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  NWO (1-2)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
jackson,stephen......85%  32%  1.01  - 6 26.8  williams,deron.......81%  25%  1.51  + 8 31.5
jennings,brandon.....67%  23%  1.12  -10 16.3  lopez,brook..........75%  31%  0.98  + 8 23.5
ilyasova,ersan.......40%  18%  1.67  + 8 11.3  humphries,kris.......58%  11%  1.53  +12  9.9
gooden,drew..........42%  32%  0.65  - 2  8.8  williams,jordan......42%  31%  0.64  - 8  8.2
udrih,beno...........33%  16%  1.66  + 6  8.5  farmar,jordan........38%  18%  0.90  - 3  5.8
delfino,carlos.......73%  11%  0.87  - 6  7.4  brooks,marshon.......48%  24%  0.48  + 6  5.6
bogut,andrew.........73%  11%  0.85  - 8  7.0  morrow,anthony.......65%   7%  1.31  - 1  5.6
mbahamoute,luc.......48%   8%  1.20  - 6  4.4  outlaw,travis........50%  13%  0.67  + 9  5.3
sanders,larry........27%  23%  0.50  + 4  2.5  james,damion.........19%  15%  1.02  - 4  2.8
livingston,shaun..... 4%  25%  0.68    0  0.7  graham,stephen....... 2%  51%  0.00  - 3  0.0
harris,tobias........ 8%  12%  0.26    0  0.3  brooks,marshon.......(DNP)  
brockman,jon.........(DNP)                     williams,jordan......(DNP)  
PACE: 89.5          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 89.5          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
BUCKS............   93.8 .415  .216 .112 .133  NETS.............   98.3 .418  .116 .134 .152

---

SPURS 108, WARRIORS 105: As noted, the Warriors lost Stephen Curry eight minutes into the game, which was a shame because he had already racked up 12 points and three steals. In his place, Charles Jenkins had eight points and three assists, while Klay Thompson scored six points. Monta Ellis led Golden State with 23 points and his eight assists, indicating a heightened role in running Mark Jackson's offense. Ellis hit a jumper with 1:14 to play to give the Warriors a two-point lead. But Tony Parker hit a three, Tim Duncan scored inside and Golden State didn't score again after Ellis' hoop. The Spurs, who are now 3-0, got 27 points from Manu Ginobili.

STRAT-O-MATIC BOX SCORE
SAN ANTONIO                 32 24 27 25  108
GOLDEN STATE                23 36 26 20  105

                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
T.PARKER     31   7 13  54  1  1 100  5  6  83  18   0  2  2 12  5  2  6  0  20
R.JEFFERSON  27   3  6  50  2  3  67  0  0      21   1  7  8  2  0  1  1  0   8
M.GINOBILI   30  11 22  50  2  8  25  3  3 100  16   1  2  3  7  1  1  0  0  27
T.DUNCAN     29   6  9  67  0  0      4  4 100  22   2  6  8  3  1  1  1  5  16
D.BLAIR      21   1  4  25  0  0      2  4  50   8   1  6  7  0  3  1  1  0   4
G.NEAL       24   6  7  86  2  3  67  0  0     -16   0  3  3  1  2  0  1  0  14
M.BONNER     18   1  2  50  0  1   0  0  0      10   0  4  4  2  1  0  1  0   2
A.McDYESS    13   0  2   0  0  0      0  0     -16   0  1  1  0  0  1  0  0   0
T.SPLITTER   19   3  6  50  0  0      4  5  80 -19   1  2  3  0  1  0  0  1  10
C.JOSEPH     11   2  5  40  1  3  33  0  0     -12   0  1  1  1  0  0  1  0   5
K.LEONARD    17   1  3  33  0  0      0  0     -17   2  2  4  0  3  0  2  0   2
SAN ANTONIO  48  41 79  52  8 19  42 18 22  82       8 36 44 28 17  7 14  6 108
                 ----FG--- ---3PT--- ---FT---       REBOUNDS
NAME        MIN  MD AT PCT MD AT PCT MD AT PCT +/-  OF DF  T AS PF ST TO BK PTS
M.ELLIS      44  11 22  50  1  3  33  0  2   0  -3   0  1  1  8  3  3  2  1  23
D.WRIGHT     39   6 17  35  5 11  45  2  2 100 -21   0  9  9  2  0  0  1  0  19
D.LEE        34   5 12  42  0  0      4  6  67 -19   3  6  9  4  2  0  1  0  14
S.CURRY       8   4  7  57  2  4  50  2  2 100  -3   0  0  0  0  1  3  1  0  12
A.BIEDRINS   19   0  5   0  0  0      1  2  50 -13   7  2  9  2  3  1  0  0   1
R.WILLIAMS   14   4  6  67  0  1   0  0  0      13   2  2  4  2  2  0  0  0   8
V.RADMANOVIC  1   0  0      0  0      0  0       4   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
E.UDOH       28   3  8  38  0  0      2  2 100   8   0  3  3  1  2  0  1  3   8
L.AMUNDSON   14   3  4  75  0  0      0  2   0  14   1  3  4  0  2  0  0  0   6
A.THORNTON    2   0  1   0  0  1   0  0  0       2   0  0  0  0  1  0  1  0   0
K.THOMPSON   18   3  6  50  0  0      0  2   0  -7   0  0  0  1  0  0  2  0   6
C.JENKINS    19   3  6  50  1  2  50  1  1 100  10   0  2  2  3  2  0  0  1   8
GOLDEN STAT  48  42 94  45  9 22  41 12 21  57      13 28 41 23 18  7  9  5 105

SAN ANTONIO                 GOLDEN STATE
     Fast Break Pts  30          Fast Break Pts  20
  Second Chance Pts   9       Second Chance Pts   8
Points in the Paint  22     Points In the Paint  24
       Biggest Lead  11            Biggest Lead   7

BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS BOX SCORE
SAS (3-0)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR  GSW (1-3)...........PLY%  USG   PCP  +/-   GR
ginobili,manu........63%  37%  1.22  +16 31.0  ellis,monta..........92%  24%  1.13  - 3 23.7
parker,tony..........65%  33%  1.13  +18 21.8  wright,dorell........81%  20%  1.35  -21 22.6
duncan,tim...........60%  18%  1.59  +22 16.8  lee,david............71%  19%  1.15  -19 15.2
neal,gary............50%  15%  1.78  -16 13.0  curry,stephen........17%  50%  1.38  - 3 11.0
jefferson,richard....56%  11%  1.83  +21 10.4  udoh,epke............58%  14%  0.94  + 8  8.6
splitter,tiago.......40%  20%  1.08  -19  7.7  williams,reggie......29%  17%  1.61  +13  8.5
joseph,cory..........23%  25%  0.95  -12  5.6  jenkins,charles......40%  13%  1.73  +10  8.5
blair,dejuan.........44%  14%  0.71  + 8  4.3  amundson,louis.......29%  14%  1.30  +14  5.2
bonner,matt..........38%   6%  1.49  +10  3.1  thompson,klay........38%  21%  0.69  - 7  5.2
leonard,kawhi........35%  13%  0.42  -17  1.9  biedrins,andris......40%  12%  0.96  -13  4.4
mcdyess,antonio......27%   6%  0.37  -16  0.5  radmanovic,vladimir.. 2%  49%  0.00  + 4  0.0
green,danny..........(DNP)                     jenkins,charles......(DNP)  
PACE: 93.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%  PACE: 93.1          ORTG eFG%  oRB%  TO% FTA%
SPURS............  116.0 .570  .222 .150 .104  WARRIORS.........  112.8 .495  .265 .097 .099

---

STANDINGS      SCORING AVERAGE     REBOUNDS⁄GAME       FIELD GOAL PCT
TEAM WON LOST  ------------------- ------------------- -------------------
NJN    3   0   K.DURANT  OKC 33.8  K.HUMPHRI NJN 14.7  J.VESELY  WAS .733 
BOS    2   1   L.ALDRIDG POR 32.0  A.JEFFERS UTA 13.0  N.HILARIO DEN .692 
PHI    1   2   L.JAMES   MIA 32.0  K.LOVE    MIN 12.7  M.MORRIS  PHX .647 
NYK    1   2   M.ELLIS   GSW 29.8  A.BOGUT   MIL 12.0  G.HENDERS CHA .640 
TOR    1   3   R.GAY     MEM 29.7  K.GARNETT BOS 12.0  G.NEAL    SAS .619 
TEAM WON LOST
DET    2   1   FREE THROW PCT      THREE POINT PCT     ASSISTS⁄GAME
CHI    2   1   ------------------- ------------------- -------------------
MIL    2   2   A.AFFLALO DEN1.000  C.ARROYO  BOS1.000  S.NASH    PHX 13.3 
IND    1   2   C.BOSH    MIA1.000  E.ILYASOV MIL1.000  C.PAUL    NOH 11.7 
CLE    1   3   C.PAUL    NOH1.000  J.JEFFRIE NYK1.000  R.RONDO   BOS 11.3 
TEAM WON LOST  D.COLLISO IND1.000  V.WAFER   BOS1.000  A.IGUODAL PHI 10.0 
MIA    2   1   D.DEROZAN TOR1.000  D.HARRIS  UTA .800  R.WESTBRO OKC 10.0 
CHA    2   1
ORL    2   2   STEALS⁄GAME         TURNOVERS⁄GAME      BLOCKS⁄GAME
ATL    1   2   ------------------- ------------------- -------------------
WAS    0   3   T.ALLEN   MEM  3.3  D.ROSE    CHI  5.0  T.DUNCAN  SAS  3.3 
TEAM WON LOST  A.IGUODAL PHI  2.7  J.WALL    WAS  4.3  S.IBAKA   OKC  3.2 
SAS    3   0   J.NOAH    CHI  2.7  R.RONDO   BOS  4.0  A.STOUDEM NYK  3.0 
NOH    2   1   J.VESELY  WAS  2.3  Z.RANDOLP MEM  4.0  K.GARNETT BOS  3.0 
HOU    2   1   K.FARIED  DEN  2.3  D.COUSINS SAC  3.8  E.BRAND   PHI  2.7 
DAL    2   2
MEM    1   2
TEAM WON LOST
DEN    3   0
MIN    2   1
UTA    1   2
POR    1   2
OKC    1   3
TEAM WON LOST
PHX    3   0
LAL    3   2
LAC    1   2
SAC    1   3
GSW    1   3

DATE  YESTERDAY'S SCORES        HIGH POINTS      HIGH REBOUNDS   HIGH ASSISTS
----  ------------------------  ---------------  --------------  ------------
11⁄7  DEN 112 vs CLE  82        Multiple 17      A.VAREJAO 10    B.DAVIS 8
11⁄7  DAL 102  @ TOR 100        A.BARGNANI 28    T.CHANDLER 11   J.CALDERON 13
11⁄7  SAC 106 vs LAL 102        M.THORNTON 23    J.HICKSON 13    T.EVANS 13
11⁄7  NJN  88 vs MIL  84        D.WILLIAMS 28    K.HUMPHRIES 11  Multiple 6
11⁄7  SAS 108  @ GSW 105        M.GINOBILI 27    Multiple 9      T.PARKER 12

TODAY'S SCHEDULED GAMES
-----------------------
HOUSTON (2-1) at INDIANA (1-2)
LOS ANGELES C (1-2) at CHICAGO (2-1)
OKLAHOMA CITY (1-3) at NEW YORK (1-2)
PHOENIX (3-0) at MEMPHIS (1-2)
UTAH (1-2) at MIAMI (2-1)

GLOSSARY
+/- (Plus-Minus) Raw data is from official box scores from NBA.com.
GR (Game Rating) Reflects a player's Points Created total, or the portion of his team's offense for which he gets credit based on his box score line. This number is then adjusted for estimated defensive performance based on box score counterpart productivity. GR is pace-adjusted so you can compare players from game to game.
PCP (Points Created Per Possession Used) An estimate of each player's points created per possession used, a measure of offensive efficiency. The stat accounts for a player's entire box score line, not just the scoring categories.
PLY% (Play percentage) An estimate of the percentage of a team's possessions on which the player was on the court.
USG An estimate of how many of those plays a player used by shooting, going to the line or committing a turnover, with a portion the team's offensive rebound total subtracted.
TEAM STATS
PACE: Estimated possessions in the game.
ORTG: A team's points per 100 possessions.
eFG%: Team's shooting percentage with an extra half-point added for each made three-point field goal.
oRB%: Percentage of a team's misses that they retrieved off the offensive glass.
TO%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a turnover.
FTA%: Percentage of a team's possessions resulting in a trip to the foul line.

Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Memphis is Not a Top-1... (11/08)
<< Previous Column
Sim Season (11/07)
Next Column >>
Sim Season (11/09)
Next Article >>
Premium Article No Repeat (11/08)

RECENTLY AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS
State of Basketball Prospectus: A Brief Anno...
Tuesday Truths: March-at-Last Edition
Easy Bubble Solver: The Triumphant Return
Premium Article Bubbles of their Own Making: Villanova, Temp...
Tuesday Truths: Crunch Time Edition

MORE FROM NOVEMBER 8, 2011
Izzo's Secret: From Fall Follies to Final Fo...
Premium Article No Repeat: A New-Look VCU
Premium Article Memphis is Not a Top-10 Team: Yet

MORE BY BRADFORD DOOLITTLE
2011-11-11 - Sim Season: The Road
2011-11-10 - Sim Season: Golden Nuggets
2011-11-09 - Sim Season: Not Perfect
2011-11-08 - Sim Season: Ouch
2011-11-07 - Sim Season: One Week in the Books
2011-11-06 - Sim Season: This is All We Have
2011-11-05 - Sim Season: Trouble in Big D
More...

MORE SIM SEASON
2011-11-11 - Sim Season: The Road
2011-11-10 - Sim Season: Golden Nuggets
2011-11-09 - Sim Season: Not Perfect
2011-11-08 - Sim Season: Ouch
2011-11-07 - Sim Season: One Week in the Books
2011-11-06 - Sim Season: This is All We Have
2011-11-05 - Sim Season: Trouble in Big D
More...

Basketball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2014 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.