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When it comes to player rankings, no position in basketball fuels as much debate as the point guard spot. Is Chris Paul truly No. 1? Well, what about Derrick Rose, the reigning MVP, or Steve Nash? And where do you put Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook? We're never going to definitively settle the argument, but here are a few more logs to throw onto the fire ...
To rank point guards, I gathered every NBA boxscore over the past 365 days--through Tuesday's games--and determined the starting point guard in each game (most were obvious, some were judgment calls). I then calculated Alternate Win Score, the best linear-weights metric, for both point guards in a matchup, tracking how often each point guard outproduced their counterpart.
Including playoffs, here were the "winningest" point guards over the past calendar year:
Point Guard GP W L T WPCT
Derrick Rose 70 50 19 1 .721
Rajon Rondo 59 45 13 1 .771
Russell Westbrook 72 44 28 0 .611
Jrue Holiday 60 36 23 1 .608
Chris Paul 46 35 10 1 .772
-------------------------------------
Steve Nash 50 33 17 0 .660
Mike Conley 62 33 29 0 .532
Ty Lawson 44 31 13 0 .705
Kyle Lowry 49 30 18 1 .622
Tony Parker 54 30 24 0 .556
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Brandon Jennings 49 29 20 0 .592
Stephen Curry 47 27 20 0 .574
Jameer Nelson 58 27 31 0 .466
Chauncey Billups 46 26 20 0 .565
Darren Collison 61 26 35 0 .426
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Jason Kidd 44 25 19 0 .568
Andre Miller 47 24 23 0 .511
D.J. Augustin 55 24 30 1 .445
Jose Calderon 47 23 24 0 .489
Mario Chalmers 41 20 21 0 .488
-------------------------------------
John Wall 55 20 35 0 .364
Derek Fisher 64 20 44 0 .313
Devin Harris 45 19 26 0 .422
Luke Ridnour 44 17 27 0 .386
Deron Williams 33 16 17 0 .485
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Mike Bibby 47 14 33 0 .298
Rodney Stuckey 25 13 12 0 .520
Beno Udrih 33 12 20 1 .379
Ramon Sessions 29 11 18 0 .379
Jeff Teague 25 10 15 0 .400
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Toney Douglas 17 9 8 0 .529
Raymond Felton 27 9 18 0 .333
Kirk Hinrich 27 9 18 0 .333
Jarrett Jack 14 8 6 0 .571
Baron Davis 21 8 13 0 .381
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Jerryd Bayless 8 6 2 0 .750
Kyrie Irving 12 6 6 0 .500
Jordan Farmar 13 6 7 0 .462
Mo Williams 21 6 15 0 .286
Goran Dragic 5 5 0 0 1.000
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Keyon Dooling 9 5 3 1 .611
Tyreke Evans 18 5 13 0 .278
Rodrigue Beaubois 24 5 19 0 .208
Ben Gordon 9 4 5 0 .444
Randy Foye 11 4 7 0 .364
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Aaron Brooks 5 3 2 0 .600
Earl Watson 13 3 10 0 .231
George Hill 3 2 1 0 .667
Gary Neal 4 2 2 0 .500
Jose Barea 5 2 3 0 .400
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Iman Shumpert 5 2 3 0 .400
Will Bynum 5 2 3 0 .400
Delonte West 6 2 4 0 .333
Richard Hamilton 7 2 5 0 .286
Brandon Knight 8 2 6 0 .250
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Greivis Vasquez 1 1 0 0 1.000
Ishmael Smith 1 1 0 0 1.000
Tracy McGrady 1 1 0 0 1.000
Ricky Rubio 1 1 0 0 1.000
C.J. Watson 1 1 0 0 1.000
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Jordan Crawford 1 1 0 0 1.000
John Lucas 2 1 1 0 .500
Kemba Walker 3 1 2 0 .333
Daniel Gibson 3 1 2 0 .333
Jeremy Pargo 3 1 2 0 .333
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Sundiata Gaines 5 1 4 0 .200
Charles Jenkins 7 1 6 0 .143
Jonny Flynn 8 1 7 0 .125
Eric Bledsoe 1 0 1 0 .000
Marco Belinelli 1 0 1 0 .000
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Chris Duhon 1 0 1 0 .000
Marcus Thornton 3 0 3 0 .000
Gilbert Arenas 1 0 1 0 .000
Carlos Arroyo 2 0 2 0 .000
Jimmer Fredette 3 0 3 0 .000
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Ronnie Price 1 0 1 0 .000
Of course, not every point guard played against the same level of competition in their matchups, so to adjust for strength of schedule I used a technique called Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). MLE essentially uses the principles of logistic regression to find the set of ratings most likely to explain past binary outcomes (which is why the four ties in the dataset were discarded). Also, to eliminate the problem of small sample sizes, players with five or fewer games were lumped into a group of "reference players".
Here were the MLE ratings from the past calendar year:
Point Guard G W L WPct MLE p(w) Best_Win Worst_Loss
Jerryd Bayless 8 6 2 .750 1.353 .795 Rose Billups
Rajon Rondo 58 45 13 .776 1.316 .788 Paul Bibby
Chris Paul 45 35 10 .778 1.279 .782 Lawson Harris
Ty Lawson 44 31 13 .705 .943 .720 Rondo M.Williams
Derrick Rose 69 50 19 .725 .910 .713 Rondo Evans
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Steve Nash 50 33 17 .660 .823 .695 Rondo Ridnour
Russell Westbrook 72 44 28 .611 .582 .642 Rondo Ridnour
Stephen Curry 47 27 20 .574 .483 .619 Paul Wall
Brandon Jennings 49 29 20 .592 .428 .605 Bayless Hinrich
Jarrett Jack 14 8 6 .571 .408 .601 Rondo Evans
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kyle Lowry 48 30 18 .625 .399 .598 Rondo Watson
Jrue Holiday 59 36 23 .610 .363 .590 Rose Hinrich
Chauncey Billups 46 26 20 .565 .322 .580 Bayless Felton
Tony Parker 54 30 24 .556 .320 .579 Lawson Ridnour
Mike Conley 62 33 29 .532 .288 .571 Paul Flynn
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Jason Kidd 44 25 19 .568 .201 .550 Paul Fisher
Deron Williams 33 16 17 .485 .164 .541 Rondo Fisher
Keyon Dooling 8 5 3 .625 .132 .533 Conley Bibby
Toney Douglas 17 9 8 .529 .128 .532 Paul Wall
Rodney Stuckey 25 13 12 .520 .093 .523 Jennings Bibby
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Andre Miller 47 24 23 .511 -.025 .494 Paul Beaubois
Jeff Teague 25 10 15 .400 -.058 .486 Rose Wall
Mario Chalmers 41 20 21 .488 -.086 .479 Rose Hinrich
Jose Calderon 47 23 24 .489 -.096 .476 Paul M.Williams
Kyrie Irving 12 6 6 .500 -.126 .469 Stuckey Fisher
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Ben Gordon 9 4 5 .444 -.198 .451 Jennings Sessions
Darren Collison 61 26 35 .426 -.206 .449 Rondo Ridnour
Devin Harris 45 19 26 .422 -.213 .447 Paul Fisher
Jordan Farmar 13 6 7 .462 -.243 .440 Rose Hinrich
Jameer Nelson 58 27 31 .466 -.256 .436 Lawson Evans
--------------------------------------------------------------------
REF PLYR 67 29 38 .433 -.320 .421 Rondo Knight
Beno Udrih 32 12 20 .375 -.362 .411 Nash Sessions
D.J. Augustin 54 24 30 .444 -.368 .409 Curry Knight
Randy Foye 11 4 7 .364 -.374 .408 Kidd Wall
Baron Davis 21 8 13 .381 -.449 .390 Rose Bibby
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Luke Ridnour 44 17 27 .386 -.570 .361 Nash Watson
John Wall 55 20 35 .364 -.587 .357 Curry Felton
Ramon Sessions 29 11 18 .379 -.599 .354 Lowry Hinrich
Mike Bibby 47 14 33 .298 -.688 .334 Rondo Hamilton
Raymond Felton 27 9 18 .333 -.745 .322 Holiday Fisher
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Delonte West 6 2 4 .333 -.814 .307 Jack Wall
Kirk Hinrich 27 9 18 .333 -.833 .303 Rose Fisher
Derek Fisher 64 20 44 .313 -.876 .294 Lowry Watson
Tyreke Evans 18 5 13 .278 -1.067 .256 Rose Fisher
Richard Hamilton 7 2 5 .286 -1.244 .224 Calderon Hinrich
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Mo Williams 21 6 15 .286 -1.261 .221 Lawson Fisher
Brandon Knight 8 2 6 .250 -1.499 .183 REF PLYR Jenkins
Rodrigue Beaubois 24 5 19 .208 -1.686 .156 Miller M.Williams
Jonny Flynn 8 1 7 .125 -1.744 .149 Conley Collison
Earl Watson 13 3 10 .231 -1.815 .140 Lowry Beaubois
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Charles Jenkins 7 1 6 .143 -2.317 .090 Knight Fisher
HCA .248
P(W) is the player's expected win probability against an average opponent on a neutral court, implied by their MLE using the formula:
P(W) = exp(MLE - oppMLE) / (1 + exp(MLE - oppMLE))
The MLE method is a good way of tracking which point guard is likely to win their individual matchup, but it doesn't say anything for how well a player dominates his counterpart--it treats a narrow victory the same as a resounding one. To account for margin of victory, one must turn to another ranking methodology: the Simple Rating System (SRS).
In the SRS, every point guard is a variable in a linear regression that attempts to best predict the margin of victory in a given matchup. When Derrick Rose faces Chris Paul in Chicago, Rose's MOV is predicted by:
MOV_DR = HCA + SRS_DR - SRS_CP
Find the set of Simple Ratings that minimize the sum of squared prediction errors across all games, and you have a way to rank PGs that takes into account how much they dominate their matchups:
Point Guard Games SRS
Chris Paul 46 4.0
Ty Lawson 44 3.3
Derrick Rose 70 3.1
Rajon Rondo 59 2.5
Kyle Lowry 49 2.3
-------------------------
Stephen Curry 47 2.2
Jerryd Bayless 8 1.9
Steve Nash 50 1.6
Jordan Farmar 13 1.6
Chauncey Billups 46 1.6
-------------------------
Russell Westbrook 72 1.4
Mike Conley 62 1.3
Jason Kidd 44 1.1
Brandon Jennings 49 1.0
Tony Parker 54 .9
-------------------------
Jrue Holiday 60 .8
Jarrett Jack 14 .4
Andre Miller 47 .3
Delonte West 6 .1
Keyon Dooling 9 .0
-------------------------
Deron Williams 33 .0
Jeff Teague 25 -.1
Jose Calderon 47 -.1
Mario Chalmers 41 -.2
Darren Collison 61 -.4
-------------------------
Kyrie Irving 12 -.5
Devin Harris 45 -.6
Rodney Stuckey 25 -.8
Randy Foye 11 -.9
Beno Udrih 33 -1.0
-------------------------
Jameer Nelson 58 -1.2
Ramon Sessions 29 -1.3
D.J. Augustin 55 -1.3
Toney Douglas 17 -1.5
John Wall 55 -1.5
-------------------------
Raymond Felton 27 -1.6
REF PLYR 67 -1.8
Luke Ridnour 44 -2.2
Mike Bibby 47 -2.4
Derek Fisher 64 -2.6
-------------------------
Kirk Hinrich 27 -2.7
Tyreke Evans 18 -2.7
Ben Gordon 9 -2.8
Brandon Knight 8 -3.1
Richard Hamilton 7 -3.1
-------------------------
Earl Watson 13 -3.1
Baron Davis 21 -3.2
Mo Williams 21 -3.6
Charles Jenkins 7 -3.6
Rodrigue Beaubois 24 -3.9
-------------------------
Jonny Flynn 8 -4.9
HCA .9
Ultimately, the process of ranking point guards is more art than science, with the best answer depending on what the team needs most--the Bulls, for instance, need Rose's pure scoring ability, while Paul's passing is a better fit for the Clippers. But if you're looking for a point guard with the ability to outproduce his counterpart in a head-to-head statistical battle, the two lists above are a good place to start when building your own personal point guard rankings.
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Neil Paine is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
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