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January 24, 2012
Tuesday Truths
Admittedly Early Edition

by John Gasaway

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Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where eventually I'll look at how well 157 teams in the nation's top 14 conferences are doing against their league opponents on a per-possession basis. For a tidy little homily on why this stuff is so very awesome, go here.

This week we have fully 13 of what will soon be 14 conferences joining the fun. Only the very slow-starting 14-game Mountain West is still absent, and they'll jump in next week.

ACC: Did I mention it's early?

Through games of January 23, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  NC State          4-1   71.3    1.07    0.93    +0.14
2.  Virginia          2-2   57.3    0.98    0.86    +0.12
3.  Florida St.       4-1   68.9    1.08    0.98    +0.10
4.  Duke              4-1   66.5    1.14    1.04    +0.10
5.  North Carolina    3-1   72.9    1.01    0.94    +0.07
6.  Clemson           2-3   66.8    1.01    0.98    +0.03
7.  Maryland          2-2   67.8    1.01    1.02    -0.01
8.  Virginia Tech     1-4   64.2    0.90    0.96    -0.06
9.  Miami             1-3   67.4    0.95    1.02    -0.07
10. Georgia Tech      1-4   65.3    0.94    1.06    -0.12
11. Wake Forest       2-3   67.2    0.91    1.04    -0.13
12. Boston College    2-3   70.3    0.85    0.99    -0.14

AVG.                        67.1    0.99

Pay no mind to that numeral next to NC State just yet. Mark Gottfried's team has played home games against Maryland, Georgia Tech (the Wolfpack lost), and Boston College, while recording road wins at Wake Forest and at Miami. I do think NC State's better than people realize, but it's also true that the Wolfpack's in-conference strength-of-schedule is about to become a tad more robust, starting with Thursday night's game at North Carolina. Not that there's a total collapse looming, mind you. Actually Gottfried's drawn a pretty sweet schedule for his rookie tour through the ACC. His team gets Carolina twice, but plays Duke, Florida State and Virginia just once apiece. With a schedule like that a 10-win conference season is a possibility this year in Raleigh. Who'd a thunk, right? BONUS non-NC State point! Florida State has long been known for their defense, but what's been particularly striking about their success this season is that, as seen here, their offense has actually outperformed their D by a wide margin relative to the respective ACC averages. In fact the strongest aspect of the Seminoles' performance on either side of the ball has been their league-leading 39.5 percent three-point shooting.

Big 12: No one does offense better than Missouri

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Kansas            7-0   66.8    1.13    0.90    +0.23
2.  Missouri          5-1   65.9    1.18    1.02    +0.16
3.  Baylor            4-2   70.3    1.13    1.02    +0.11
4.  Iowa St.          4-2   68.6    1.07    0.97    +0.10
5.  Kansas St.        3-3   68.4    1.02    1.03    -0.01
6.  Texas             2-4   66.1    1.03    1.04    -0.01
7.  Oklahoma          2-4   65.5    0.99    1.10    -0.11
8.  Oklahoma St.      2-4   67.4    0.94    1.05    -0.11
9.  Texas A&M         2-5   63.5    0.90    1.01    -0.11
10. Texas Tech        0-6   66.0    0.82    1.08    -0.26

AVG.                        66.9    1.02

In any normal year I'd be running around yelling and waving my arms right now about how great Marcus Denmon is playing. After all, Denmon's listed at just 6-3, he's the featured scorer for a major-conference team ranked nationally in the top five, it's late January, and he's still hitting 57 percent of his twos for the year. But it's hard to forge a consensus of awe around a number like that when one of Denmon's teammates insists on rather showily beating it by 20 percentage points. To be sure, Kansas has been the better team overall (fun fact: the Big 12's hitting 44 percent of its threes against Missouri), and, anyway, maybe this whole insane offense in Columbia thing is unsustainable. Maybe the Tiger offense will hit a wall of reality just like it did in Manhattan, Kansas, on January 7, and indeed just like the Texas defense did last year around Valentine's Day. But until that happens and unless you're a fan of a different Big 12 team, this offense is quite simply a joy to watch. Awe-free note. Iowa State is better than I thought they'd be. Maybe the Oakland Raider "give us your Big Ten transfers yearning to breathe free" approach really can work in D-I. Fred Hoiberg, I salute you!

Big East: I'm tracking bench points scored in transition on Thursdays by Syracuse

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Syracuse          8-1   67.1    1.11    0.93    +0.18
2.  West Virginia     5-2   66.4    1.07    0.97    +0.10
3.  S. Florida        5-2   59.1    1.07    0.98    +0.09
4.  Marquette         5-2   68.5    1.07    1.00    +0.07
5.  Georgetown        6-2   64.0    1.02    0.97    +0.05
6.  Seton Hall        4-3   66.6    1.03    0.98    +0.05
7.  Connecticut       4-3   62.4    1.06    1.03    +0.03
8.  Cincinnati        5-3   64.4    1.04    1.01    +0.03
9.  Notre Dame        4-3   59.8    1.00    1.00     0.00
10. Louisville        3-4   67.1    0.98    0.99    -0.01
11. Rutgers           3-4   65.1    0.95    0.98    -0.03
12. Villanova         3-5   71.9    1.02    1.06    -0.04
13. St. John's        2-6   67.6    0.93    1.04    -0.11
14. Providence        1-6   65.9    0.98    1.10    -0.12
15. Pitt              0-7   63.5    0.95    1.10    -0.15
16. DePaul            1-6   74.0    0.94    1.13    -0.19

AVG.                        65.9    1.02

The urban legends that have attached to Syracuse this season have been unusually numerous, and each time one crops up I smile at it benignly and think this will certainly be the last we see of such nonsense -- only to find, invariably, another one cropping up. First it was the odd national obsession with "bench points," a metric with about as much utility as "vowel points." Let's count the number of points scored by players whose last names start with vowels, for such a distinction is as extraneous to the final score as the question of whether Dion Waiters was standing on the floor or sitting on the bench for the opening tip. Then bench points mania subsided, only to be replaced by a new meme in this same line, the notion that somehow the Orange offense "struggles in the half court." Apparently for the season's first 10 weeks the team went undefeated because they were forcing steals on every defensive possession and getting layups at the other end. I realize Syracuse did indeed look abysmal against Notre Dame on Saturday evening and, for that matter, Jim Boeheim's men weren't exactly world-beaters on offense in the early stages of last night's game against Cincinnati. But we should probably pause and reflect before we watch a major conference's best offense operating at pace perilously close to its league average and conclude that said offense "struggles in the half court." Yes, South Florida really is the Big East Colorado. I mean, it's eerie. The Bulls sport an impressive 5-2 mark and in fact USF came within one possession against Connecticut of arriving here with a 6-1 to their name. All Stan Heath's team can do is play the games on their schedule, of course, but do keep in mind their schedule to this point has been notably kind.

Big Ten: Illinois is driving one alum crazy

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Ohio St.          5-2   68.7    1.12    0.84    +0.28
2.  Michigan St.      5-2   63.7    1.15    0.97    +0.18
3.  Wisconsin         5-3   58.7    1.03    0.97    +0.06
4.  Michigan          5-2   59.5    1.05    0.99    +0.06
5.  Minnesota         3-4   65.1    1.03    1.01    +0.02
6.  Illinois          4-3   63.5    0.98    0.98     0.00
7.  Indiana           4-4   66.6    1.09    1.10    -0.01
8.  Purdue            4-3   65.0    1.04    1.07    -0.03
9.  Iowa              3-4   67.4    0.98    1.08    -0.10
10. Penn St.          2-6   62.5    0.98    1.09    -0.11
11. Northwestern      2-5   62.4    0.97    1.11    -0.14
12. Nebraska          2-6   62.8    0.83    1.03    -0.20

AVG.                        63.8    1.02

I don't remember which episode of "The Simpsons" it was, exactly, or what plot twists ensued from the fact that Krusty had bet against the Harlem Globetrotters ("I thought the Generals were due!"), but I do remember him offering suggestions for his team's defense thusly: "He's spinning the ball on his finger! Just take it, for God's sake!" That's kind of how I feel watching Illinois on offense this season. After seven conference games it appears probable that for a sixth consecutive season the Illini will not rise to the level of an average Big Ten outfit on that side of the ball. (Last year, granted, the team came within a whisker of that elusive empyrean realm, the conference's 50th percentile on offense. You may have seen merely a befuddled gang of somewhat listless veterans, but, sadly, what I saw was the high-water mark for Illinois scoring since 2006, kind of like the Confederates reaching Gettysburg.) It looks as though Meyers Leonard will shake David Stern's hand this summer fresh from a team that couldn't muster a point per trip in its league. Meantime put me down as tired of the endless east-west passing on the perimeter, tired of indecision and tentativeness on offense posing as "patience," and tired of knowing in advance (as do opponents) that there will be no offensive rebounds or free throws. I can't watch anymore. It really is all about the Gasaways. Further deepening the hoops gloom at family gatherings is the fact that my brother Rob's team, Northwestern, is itself having what hoops analysts in white lab coats term "its Illinois year" on offense. So, yeah, I guess in the suddenly not-too-distant 2020s you can look for my kids at either Missouri or Saint Mary's. Don't tell my wife.

Pac-12: No, Colorado isn't really this good, sue me (part 2)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Cal               6-2   65.8    1.11    0.96    +0.15
2.  Colorado          5-2   65.2    1.05    0.92    +0.13
3.  Arizona           4-3   63.9    1.01    0.90    +0.11
4.  Washington        5-2   69.1    1.06    0.99    +0.07
5.  UCLA              3-4   64.2    1.08    1.05    +0.03
6.  Oregon            6-2   64.7    1.07    1.04    +0.03
7.  Stanford          5-3   65.0    1.02    1.03    -0.01
8.  Oregon St.        3-5   69.0    1.10    1.12    -0.02
9.  Washington St.    3-4   64.9    1.08    1.12    -0.04
10. Arizona St.       2-5   60.3    0.95    1.09    -0.14
11. USC               0-7   60.8    0.84    1.01    -0.17
12. Utah              2-5   59.5    0.88    1.08    -0.20

AVG.                        64.4    1.02

In-conference strength-of-schedule is the elephant in the room in January in the Pac-12, a league whose bottom 25 percent is unusually hapless. Have you played games against this bottom quartile? Then you're going to look really good in Tuesday Truths. Against teams ranked No. 9 or above by the Truths, however, Colorado is outscoring the Pac-12 by 0.01 points per trip. Elsewhere in non-Buffaloes news you have to be impressed with what Mike Montgomery's unveiled in Berkeley this year. Defense! Actual, effective defense, the kind not glimpsed much if at all in 2010-11. Oh, there have been hiccups on the road this season against Oregon State and Washington State (and "hiccup" is putting it mildly, particularly with reference to what took place in Corvallis), but on balance this group of Bears is forcing not only misses on the interior but also, and especially, turnovers in abundance. Suddenly feisty Cal I salute you! BONUS promotional brainstorm! The Bears should strike up a continuing series with the team just over the hill, Saint Mary's. It could be called the Rumble for the Tunnel, and the winner could have its colors draped above the entrances to the Caldecott Tunnel for that year. Commuters in the vast queues that form there each day -- westbound in the morning, eastbound in the evening -- would welcome something colorful and hoops-derived to look at. Anyway, I would have when I was pulling that gig.

SEC: Does this mean Auburn's "The Most Boring Team in America"?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Kentucky          5-0   65.4    1.15    0.96    +0.19
2.  Vanderbilt        4-1   61.3    1.13    0.94    +0.19
3.  Florida           3-1   61.6    1.14    0.99    +0.15
4.  Alabama           2-3   63.6    1.02    0.99    +0.03
5.  Tennessee         1-3   63.7    0.91    0.91     0.00
6.  LSU               2-3   65.2    0.97    0.98    -0.01
7.  Mississippi St.   3-2   64.4    1.07    1.09    -0.02
8.  Ole Miss          2-3   64.8    0.98    1.01    -0.03
9.  Arkansas          2-2   72.3    1.01    1.05    -0.04
10. Auburn            2-3   59.7    0.87    0.99    -0.12
11. Georgia           1-4   62.0    0.92    1.07    -0.15
12. South Carolina    0-4   60.8    0.98    1.18    -0.20

AVG.                        63.7    1.01

I have a long-standing vow to the effect that the day the Big Ten finishes a season as something other than the nation's slowest-paced major conference, I will run screaming in celebratory euphoria up to Jim Delany's window at conference HQ in hitherto irenic Park Ridge, Illinois, and wish him a Merry Christmas George Bailey-style. (To which Delany will doubtless respond: "And a happy new year! In jail!") This could be the year. As seen here the SEC is playing basketball at the same pace as the Big Ten. Mike Brey's garnered a lot of attention the past couple years for going purposefully slow at Notre Dame, but the fact is Billy Donovan, to take one example, has been doing more or less the same thing at Florida at more or less the same time. As recently as 2009 his Gators were recording 70 possessions for every 40 minutes of SEC ball they played, but UF's pace has slowed every year since. By 2013 at the latest Donovan will have Florida crawling along somewhere in the 50s and screwing up my buddy Ken's ratings. You heard it here first. What Cornelius Vanderbilt was to emerging transportation technologies, Kevin Stallings is to personnel. Vanderbilt dropped a game at home in OT to Mississippi State this weekend, but I'm provisionally impressed by the Commodores just the same. Festus Ezeli is still recuperating, and to this viewer's eye the senior is but a tentative and ginger shadow of his 2010-11 self, but Vandy is measurably more feisty on D this year anyway. If the big guy can get up to speed it'll be fun to see this group log 80 minutes against Kentucky.

A-10: A post-Xavier league at last?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Saint Louis       3-2   64.9    1.06    0.95    +0.11
2.  St. Bonaventure   3-2   67.4    1.06    0.96    +0.10
3.  Xavier            4-2   66.1    1.09    1.00    +0.09
4.  Dayton            4-1   67.6    1.17    1.09    +0.08
5.  La Salle          3-2   71.4    1.08    1.03    +0.05
6.  UMass             4-2   75.1    1.02    0.98    +0.04
7.  GW                3-2   63.7    1.02    1.01    +0.01
8.  Richmond          2-3   64.9    1.08    1.09    -0.01
9.  Saint Joseph's    2-3   65.8    0.99    1.01    -0.02
10. Charlotte         2-3   69.1    0.94    0.97    -0.03
11. Temple            2-2   68.7    1.06    1.09    -0.03
12. Duquesne          3-3   66.9    0.97    1.03    -0.06
13. Rhode Island      0-5   64.3    0.98    1.13    -0.15
14. Fordham           1-4   68.1    0.92    1.13    -0.21

AVG.                        67.4    1.03

For the past few years Xavier's lorded over the A-10 kind of like Kansas does the Big 12, but this league is now a much more competitive place. Feast your eyes on all that heft at the top of the conference this season, starting with a really good Saint Louis team that's an OT and a couple possessions away from 5-0. That being said the best unit in the league to this point has clearly been the Dayton offense, which is finding totemic power in the number 41. When you pull down 41 percent of your misses and hit 41 percent of your threes in conference play, you're going to score a lot of points. Archie Miller, I salute you! The next time the Miller family gets together, remember to walk tall. You have the best offense.

Colonial: The best conference race, period

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  VCU               7-2   64.5    1.02    0.87    +0.15
2.  Drexel            7-2   60.2    1.03    0.88    +0.15
3.  Old Dominion      7-2   63.6    1.00    0.86    +0.14
4.  Georgia St.       6-3   66.1    0.94    0.80    +0.14
5.  George Mason      8-1   66.1    1.06    0.92    +0.14
6.  Delaware          5-4   65.9    0.99    0.99     0.00
7.  Northeastern      5-4   62.0    0.97    0.99    -0.02
8.  UNC-Wilmington    4-5   66.9    1.01    1.10    -0.09
9.  Hofstra           1-8   66.2    0.94    1.03    -0.09
10. James Madison     2-7   66.5    0.93    1.03    -0.10
11. William & Mary    2-7   61.8    0.92    1.04    -0.12
12. Towson            0-9   60.4    0.74    1.08    -0.34

AVG.                        64.2    0.96

Things can change after January 24, goodness knows, and it's true this year's CAA isn't going to set any records for offensive efficiency. But if you like your conference races tight and tumultuous, the Colonial may be the place for you. This season the conference has been exhibiting five teams that are clearly better than the other seven. Last night the top five all played opponents from the bottom seven. The result was a 5-0 sweep with an average margin of victory of 12 points. When these teams play intra-5 games, they're playing for survival. Gang of 5 teams understand the NCAA tournament will only have room for a tiny minority from this group.

C-USA: The predictive value of having this league's worst offense

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Memphis           4-1   64.3    1.06    0.89    +0.17
2.  UCF               5-1   62.8    1.05    0.93    +0.12
3.  Tulsa             4-2   61.9    1.01    0.91    +0.10
4.  Marshall          4-1   64.9    1.01    0.96    +0.05
5.  Southern Miss     4-1   63.5    1.02    0.98    +0.04
6.  UTEP              3-3   61.9    0.99    0.98    +0.01
7.  Tulane            1-4   62.3    0.91    0.94    -0.03
8.  Rice              2-3   63.3    0.88    0.91    -0.03
9.  UAB               1-4   58.1    0.92    0.97    -0.05
10. SMU               2-3   60.7    0.93    1.00    -0.07
11. East Carolina     0-5   67.1    1.01    1.14    -0.13
12. Houston           2-4   66.5    0.92    1.10    -0.18

AVG.                        63.1    0.98

This offseason we Prospectus types did what's expected of us and told you what a great player Arsalan Kazemi is for Rice, even though of course none of you has ever seen the Owls in action. Fast-forward to now and we find that Kazemi's doing fine (though he's been slowed by a gimpy knee), and Ben Braun's team is playing much better defense in the early C-USA going than what they displayed last year. But this offense has absolutely fallen off a cliff, and keep in mind it was no juggernaut in 2011. If this keeps up they'll make the NCAA tournament for sure! (Har! See, last year Memphis had the worst offense in the league. This season the Tigers are the class of the conference in per-possession terms, a state of affairs that may well continue even without the services of Adonis Thomas.)

Horizon: Cleveland State's weird and needless but not yet suicidal fouling

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Cleveland St.     7-2   63.1    1.10    0.96    +0.14
2.  Valparaiso        7-2   63.7    1.08    1.01    +0.07
3.  Youngstown St.    6-3   61.9    1.06    1.00    +0.06
4.  Milwaukee         6-3   64.5    0.97    0.93    +0.04
5.  Detroit           4-5   65.1    1.05    1.02    +0.03
6.  Butler            6-3   64.0    0.97    0.94    +0.03
7.  Wright St.        4-5   61.3    0.94    0.94     0.00
8.  Green Bay         3-6   66.1    0.96    1.03    -0.07
9.  UIC               2-7   61.9    0.94    1.03    -0.09
10. Loyola            0-9   57.8    0.87    1.08    -0.21

AVG.                        62.9    0.99

Last week's proclamation to the effect that Cleveland State is the class of this here Horizon suddenly looks a lot less visionary and a lot more well-duh. Two home games will do that. The Vikings still foul way too much, however, and apparently the experiment is about to be fairly tried as to whether an otherwise superior team can successfully shoot itself in the foot through no other means than a gun called fouls. Prior examples of incomprehensibly foul-happy teams -- whether it was Kansas State or Villanova 2010, or Indiana 2011 -- never afforded us this analytic tidiness because they weren't the class of their conferences in ceteris paribus terms. I'll keep you posted.

Missouri Valley: Pick your paradigm, head-to-head or season-long?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Wichita St.       8-1   65.4    1.15    0.91    +0.24
2.  Creighton         8-1   66.3    1.14    1.01    +0.13
3.  Evansville        5-4   67.4    1.12    1.03    +0.09
4.  Missouri St.      5-4   64.5    1.04    0.99    +0.05
5.  N. Iowa           4-5   64.7    1.02    1.00    +0.02
6.  Drake             5-4   66.2    1.03    1.03     0.00
7.  Illinois St.      4-5   64.8    1.06    1.10    -0.04
8.  S. Illinois       3-6   67.9    0.99    1.11    -0.12
9.  Indiana St.       2-7   66.0    0.95    1.09    -0.14
10. Bradley           1-8   68.7    0.93    1.13    -0.20

AVG.                        66.2    1.04

On December 31 Wichita State lost at home to Creighton, so everyone, understandably, touts the Bluejays as the Valley's best team. But over the course of the MVC season as a whole the Shockers have performed better than Creighton, particularly on defense. So who's better? Circle the date: the rematch is February 11 in Omaha.

WAC: A post-Utah-State league at last

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Nevada            5-0   63.6    1.20    1.00    +0.20
2.  New Mexico St.    4-1   73.6    1.11    0.96    +0.15
3.  Hawaii            3-2   70.7    1.08    1.03    +0.05
4.  Utah St.          2-3   62.8    1.04    1.06    -0.02
5.  Louisiana Tech    2-3   71.6    1.01    1.03    -0.02
6.  Idaho             3-2   63.6    1.02    1.09    -0.07
7.  Fresno St.        1-4   62.2    1.01    1.12    -0.11
8.  San Jose St.      0-5   67.4    0.98    1.17    -0.19

AVG.                        67.0    1.06

Tuesday Truths started tracking the WAC a couple years ago because my buddy Ken was always yelling and waving his arms about how great Utah State was. As seen here USU no longer gives us probable cause to count possessions in places like Ruston, Louisiana, and Moscow, Idaho, but on Thursday night Nevada and New Mexico State will collide in Las Cruces for all the "continue to pay attention to us, please, Tuesday Truths!" marbles.

West Coast: A big four?

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Saint Mary's      8-0   66.3    1.21    0.98    +0.23
2.  Gonzaga           6-1   68.2    1.09    0.88    +0.21
3.  BYU               6-2   73.4    1.10    0.95    +0.15
4.  Loyola Marymount  5-2   70.1    1.01    0.94    +0.07
5.  San Francisco     3-5   70.8    1.01    1.04    -0.03
6.  San Diego         2-5   69.1    0.98    1.09    -0.11
7.  Portland          2-5   68.9    0.94    1.11    -0.17
8.  Pepperdine        1-7   63.4    0.87    1.07    -0.20
9.  Santa Clara       0-6   70.3    0.98    1.19    -0.21

AVG.                        68.9    1.02

Loyola Marymount made something of the proverbial "statement" last week with their 82-68 win at BYU. Does winning in a place like Provo mean Max Good's team is crashing what was supposed to be the West Coast's "big three"? Tuesday Truths basically offers two cheers for such a view. After a highly worrisome non-conference season the Lions do indeed find themselves closer to No. 3 than they are to No. 5 in the WCC. Duly noted.

John uses fewer decimal points on Twitter: @JohnGasaway. This free article is an example of the content available to Basketball Prospectus Premium subscribers. See our Premium page for more details and to subscribe..

John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.

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