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Two tournaments tip off tonight, and I’m throwing in two more that start early Friday. All figures listed are the chances of a team getting to a particular round, based on the log5 formula and my adjusted Pythagorean winning percentages, with the rightmost column indicating its chances of winning the tournament.
Missouri Valley
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Drake 100 86.6 61.7 40.2
2 Illinois St. 100 70.3 41.2 19.9
3 Southern Illinois 100 75.3 39.7 18.3
4 Creighton 100 57.9 21.6 10.1
5 Bradley 100 42.1 13.0 5.1
7 Missouri St. 85.6 28.6 12.1 4.0
6 Northern Iowa 100 24.7 6.8 1.6
8 Indiana St. 56.6 8.3 2.5 0.6
9 Wichita St. 43.4 5.1 1.3 0.3
10 Evansville 14.4 1.1 0.1 0.01
Format: All games at the Scottrade Center, St. Louis, March 6-9.
Most likely championship matchup: Drake vs. Illinois St. (25%)
There will be talk of curses if Drake cannot win as the top seed, but it’s merely the reality of playing in a league that never has a dominant team. Despite the Bulldogs' clinching the top seed weeks ago, there are three other teams with legitimate title hopes, which is to say that outsiders hoping for a one-bid Valley will probably be disappointed.
One other note on the Valley: are there any skeptics out there as to whether Drake point guard Adam Emmenecker was anywhere close to the MVP in the conference? I know he did the little things that don’t show up in the box score and he has a "high basketball IQ," but he better be in the hoops version of Mensa because his stats don’t indicate an MVP-type player. To review, Emmenecker averaged fewer than eight points per game while not making a three-pointer all season. While he was very good at setting up his teammates, he also had the most turnovers per minute played of any starting point guard in the conference while playing on a very slow paced team. I know stats aren’t everything, but I can’t help but think that if Emmenecker was the same player, yet from Chicago with a 40-inch vertical, folks wouldn’t be obsessed with the little things he does and would instead be rightly focusing on the production of Josh Young and Leonard Houston, Drake’s real MVP’s.
Northeast Conference
Semis Final Champ
1 Robert Morris 95.5 77.3 66.1
2 Wagner 60.0 34.3 7.5
3 Sacred Heart 61.9 31.9 8.3
4 Mount St. Mary's 78.5 17.5 9.3
5 Quinnipiac 21.5 4.6 1.6
6 Central Conn. 38.1 21.0 4.7
7 Long Island 40.0 12.8 2.4
8 Monmouth 4.5 0.5 0.1
Format: All games at higher seeds, March 6, 9, and 12.
Most likely championship matchup: Wagner at Robert Morris (27%)
Robert Morris dominated the NEC with a 16-2 record by forcing steals in mass quantities. It is expected to do the same in the NEC Tourney. Wagner is the two seed and has benefited from an unbelievable amount of good fortune this season, lapping the field in my luck rating. The Seahawks' 22-7 record should be 15-14 based on their distribution of game scores.
Colonial
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 VCU 100 90.7 67.1 46.9
3 George Mason 100 78.3 62.8 29.6
4 Old Dominion 100 81.6 28.2 14.5
2 UNC Wilmington 100 69.1 20.2 4.6
6 Northeastern 67.8 17.2 10.0 2.5
7 Delaware 62.0 21.6 4.0 0.6
8 Hofstra 64.2 7.0 2.0 0.5
5 William & Mary 62.9 13.3 1.9 0.5
11 James Madison 32.2 4.5 1.8 0.3
10 Drexel 38.0 9.4 1.2 0.1
12 Georgia St. 37.1 5.1 0.5 0.1
9 Towson 35.8 2.3 0.4 0.1
Format: All games at Richmond (Va.) Coliseum, March 7-10.
Most likely championship matchup: VCU vs. George Mason (42%)
Popular opinion had the Patriots and Rams as the top two teams in the CAA back in October, and that’s exactly what the data tells us in March. VCU won the 18-game regular season slate by three over both GMU and UNC Wilmington and should be feeling pretty good about defending its Jammin’ on the James title. (OK, so the CAA doesn’t call its postseason shindig that anymore. I still like it.)
Southern
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Davidson 100 95.4 80.2 71.2
3 Georgia Southern 100 65.1 42.2 8.8
5 NC Greensboro 100 63.3 13.6 8.8
2 Chattanooga 100 73.1 32.6 5.1
4 Appalachian St. 100 36.7 5.3 2.7
6 Charleston 92.0 34.5 18.3 2.6
7 Elon 73.8 23.2 6.3 0.5
8 Wofford 55.2 2.8 0.6 0.2
9 Western Carolina 44.8 1.9 0.4 0.1
10 Furman 26.2 3.7 0.4 0.01
11 The Citadel 8.0 0.4 0.0 0.0007
Format: All games at North Charleston (S.C.) Coliseum, March 7-10.
Most likely championship matchup: Davidson vs. Georgia Southern (34%)
The Citadel, with a roster of almost exclusively freshmen, is the biggest longshot we’ve seen yet, with approximately a 1 in 150,000 chance of winning four in a row here. It won just one of 20 conference games, so you can get an idea of how the math works out.
All eyes will be on Davidson to see if it can avoid going into the at-large pool. The numbers show it’s far from a done deal. Because of that, I should respond to a question from reader Stan the other day...
What were the odds of Davidson going undefeated in conference play? I keep hearing it was very easy to do, so I was curious.
I don’t so much care about what the odds were for Davidson, since it's already done it. But using the log5 analysis, the odds of a present-day bubble team like Syracuse doing it are about 20%, and it’d be expected to lose two games along the way. So, no, it wasn’t easy.
There are two extremes when it comes to comments on Davidson’s at-large chances. One camp says: "They went 20-0 in conference play, and it doesn’t matter who you play, if you go 20-0 in a conference, you deserve a bid." Well, no, I don’t agree that just going 20-0 against any group of teams means that you deserve anything.
Then the other camp says: "Davidson hasn’t beaten any top 100 teams and if a team in a big conference did that, it wouldn’t be considered for an at-large." True, but teams in the big conferences play upwards of 20 games against top 100 competition. It’s one thing to go 0-20 against that group and it’s another to go 0-6 against it, especially when three of the L’s were against top five teams. Look, I’m not excusing the losses to Western Michigan or N.C. State. They need to be considered, but so does the 20-0 conference run. The case regarding Davidson is not cut-and-dried either way.
Tomorrow: America East, Summit League, the West Coast Conference, and the Big Sky.
Ken Pomeroy is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Ken by clicking here or click here to see Ken's other articles.
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