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Through games of March 9, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession
Opp. PPP: opponent points per possession
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)
ACC: Dig Those Crazy Inscrutable Tar Heels
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. North Carolina 74.7 1.13 0.99 +0.14
2. Duke 75.3 1.11 0.99 +0.12
3. Clemson 69.4 1.07 1.00 +0.07
4. Georgia Tech 72.4 1.05 1.05 0.00
5. Virginia Tech 72.2 0.97 0.98 -0.01
6. Maryland 72.7 1.03 1.04 -0.01
7. Miami 69.6 1.06 1.07 -0.01
8. Wake Forest 71.7 1.01 1.05 -0.04
9. Virginia 70.3 1.03 1.08 -0.05
10. Florida St. 67.7 0.99 1.05 -0.06
11. BC 69.3 1.04 1.11 -0.07
12. NC State 67.4 1.01 1.14 -0.13
North Carolina ended the conference season the way the way it entered it, acclaimed as the best team in the ACC. They did it by winning at Duke on a night when a still-decelerated Ty Lawson couldn't push the pace and when Tyler Hansbrough shot no free throws. If Lawson isn't pushing the pace and Hansbrough isn't shooting freebies, what in the world do you have with this team? Whatever it takes, I guess. On this night, it was defense. The Heels won't be confused with Louisville or Kansas on D anytime soon, but over the course of a 16-game schedule UNC did indeed make conference opponents miss their shots. They also took care of the defensive glass. Don't count them out just because they're ranked number one in the polls.
Big 12: Pay No Mind to That Team Between Kansas and Texas
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Kansas 69.2 1.16 0.92 +0.24
2. Kansas St. 70.2 1.11 1.01 +0.10
3. Texas 65.3 1.09 1.00 +0.09
4. Baylor 72.2 1.08 1.07 +0.01
5. Texas A&M 63.6 1.01 1.01 0.00
6. Oklahoma St. 64.6 1.02 1.03 -0.01
7. Oklahoma 63.6 1.01 1.03 -0.02
8. Nebraska 64.1 0.98 1.02 -0.04
9. Missouri 69.4 1.04 1.10 -0.06
10. Iowa St. 66.9 0.92 1.02 -0.10
11. Texas Tech 70.4 0.97 1.08 -0.11
12. Colorado 61.4 0.97 1.10 -0.13
Behold the limits of stats. The numbers here say Kansas State is the second-best team in the conference. You and I know that's not the case. The Wildcats have declined steadily since winning at home against Kansas on January 30. Chalk the numerical illusion here up to a spectacular first five games in-conference. Even over their last 11 contests, though, K-State played well enough to rate as the Big 12's third-best team. They just haven't played anywhere near as well as we, and doubtless they, thought they would based on those first five games.
Big East: Connecticut is Fine as Long as They Don't Play Providence
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Louisville 67.0 1.06 0.91 +0.15
2. Georgetown 62.6 1.04 0.92 +0.12
3. Connecticut 67.7 1.11 1.02 +0.09
4. West Virginia 64.5 1.07 0.99 +0.08
5. Marquette 69.1 1.06 0.98 +0.08
6. Notre Dame 72.2 1.11 1.04 +0.07
7. Pitt 64.7 1.09 1.05 +0.04
8. Syracuse 70.6 1.04 1.02 +0.02
9. Villanova 69.0 1.00 1.00 0.00
10. Providence 67.6 1.03 1.08 -0.05
11. Cincinnati 64.4 0.98 1.03 -0.05
12. Seton Hall 69.6 1.03 1.09 -0.06
13. DePaul 67.0 1.04 1.12 -0.08
14. S. Florida 63.9 0.99 1.09 -0.10
15. St. John's 65.3 0.90 1.02 -0.12
16. Rutgers 66.3 0.88 1.05 -0.17
Connecticut hammered Cincinnati by 45 points last night, boosting the Huskies all the way up to third place in the Big East's tempo-free derby. Next to Drake's uncanny imitation of the '69 Mets, I'd have to rate the UConn offense as this year's biggest surprise. Looking at conference games only, Jim Calhoun's 2007 team was the second-worst shooting team in major-conference hoops. This year, different story. Their shooting is OK and they're taking care of the ball, but, most importantly, they get to the line more often than any other Big East team. Credit that last stat mostly to Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien, but note also that A.J. Price has come a long, long way in one year. Now if Coach Calhoun can just continue to take his time, uh, "working Jerome Dyson back into the rotation," this team will go far.
Big Ten: Bo Ryan is National Coach of the Decade
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Wisconsin 60.2 1.09 0.91 +0.18
2. Purdue 64.6 1.05 0.94 +0.11
3. Michigan St. 63.1 1.06 0.97 +0.09
4. Indiana 64.8 1.08 1.01 +0.07
5. Ohio St. 63.5 1.02 0.95 +0.07
6. Illinois 61.8 0.99 0.99 0.00
7. Minnesota 65.1 1.01 1.03 -0.02
8. Iowa 59.2 0.94 1.02 -0.08
9. Michigan 64.5 0.96 1.04 -0.08
10. Penn St. 62.0 0.98 1.12 -0.14
11. Northwestern 61.3 0.95 1.16 -0.21
I'm just tossing this out there, but here's what we know. Wisconsin had a surprise Final Four appearance in 2000, but past that there was very little in the way of a usable foundation, tradition, natural recruiting base, etc., when Bo Ryan arrived in Madison in 2001. Clearly the Badgers have been the best team in the Big Ten over the ensuing seven seasons. What coach this decade has done as much with so little? Just asking.
Pac-10: Behold the Cardiac Bruins
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. UCLA 64.9 1.13 0.96 +0.17
2. Stanford 63.2 1.05 0.97 +0.08
3. Washington St. 58.5 1.09 1.01 +0.08
4. USC 65.3 1.06 1.01 +0.05
5. Arizona 63.5 1.08 1.06 +0.02
6. Oregon 63.8 1.11 1.10 +0.01
7. Washington 67.7 1.01 1.03 -0.02
8. Arizona St. 62.8 1.00 1.02 -0.02
9. Cal 67.6 1.09 1.15 -0.06
10. Oregon St. 66.2 0.87 1.17 -0.30
Is it just me, or is it almost like UCLA wants to be a two-seed every year? Seriously, it's early March and the Bruins just seem bound and determined to lose a game to somebody like, oh, I don't know, Cal, just like they did last year in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tournament. So then the committee is forced to make them a two-seed and then they go and beat a one-seed like Kansas in the regional final. If I were a fan of North Carolina, Memphis or Tennessee, I would really be pulling for the Bruins in the Pac-10 tournament quarters this year.
SEC: Tennessee's Better Than I Thought They'd Be
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Tennessee 71.5 1.12 0.97 +0.15
2. Mississippi St. 67.7 1.05 0.96 +0.09
3. Arkansas 68.8 1.04 0.99 +0.05
4. Vanderbilt 68.4 1.05 1.03 +0.02
5. Kentucky 63.4 1.02 1.01 +0.01
6. Florida 68.2 1.11 1.10 +0.01
7. Ole Miss 69.7 1.06 1.08 -0.02
8. Alabama 69.0 1.03 1.06 -0.03
9. LSU 66.7 1.00 1.06 -0.06
10. Georgia 66.8 0.96 1.03 -0.07
11. Auburn 67.5 1.06 1.14 -0.08
12. South Carolina 65.0 1.01 1.10 -0.09
I was skeptical about Tennessee coming into this year, because last year their defense was so porous and so reliant on opponents' turnovers. Well, guess what? The Volunteers have improved. Oh, they still like to turn you over, but at least now they do something else, as well. Specifically they make you miss threes. If you're watching Bruce Pearl's team in the tournament and the other team is making threes and taking care of the ball, the Volunteers just might be in trouble. Until then, watch them coast.
Missouri Valley: One More Time with Feeling
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Drake 61.5 1.14 1.03 +0.11
2. Illinois St. 61.6 1.06 0.99 +0.07
3. S. Illinois 61.1 1.02 0.96 +0.06
4. Creighton 63.9 1.04 1.02 +0.02
5. Missouri St. 64.6 1.04 1.03 +0.01
6. Bradley 67.3 1.06 1.05 +0.01
7. N. Iowa 60.3 1.02 1.04 -0.02
8. Indiana St. 63.4 1.02 1.05 -0.03
9. Wichita St. 60.5 0.99 1.07 -0.08
10. Evansville 64.5 0.92 1.06 -0.14
I already posted these numbers last week but here they are again for easy reference. Drake's 79-49 dismantling of Illinois State in the MVC Tournament title game yesterday certainly was impressive, though it might have robbed the Valley of a second bid. We'll see.
John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.
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