Home Unfiltered Articles Players Baseball Prospectus
Basketball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Click here for Important Basketball Prospectus Premium Information!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis (10/29)
Next Article >>
Prospectus Roundtable (10/30)

October 29, 2012
Indiana's No. 1
Preseason Rankings 1 to 345

by Dan Hanner

Printer-
friendly

Editor's note: Dan's preseason rankings will be appearing in both the soon to be released College Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, and in the issue of ESPN The Magazine that hits streets this Friday. Support Dan's indefatigable analytical efforts by purchasing several copies of both.

Earlier this month, I revealed my my new methodology for ranking Division I teams. Using 10 years of historical trends, I projected the performance of every D-I player, and then projected lineups for all 345 teams. (Sorry, Northern Kentucky and New Orleans. Get some D-I results I can use, then we'll talk.) Today I share the results, which I think are fun for a number of reasons. Most notably they sometimes depart from conventional thinking. It is also interesting to see how the model evaluates teams that may otherwise fly under the radar.

A good example of this is probably a team like Pennsylvania. Shockingly, the model picks the Quakers to finish in last place in the Ivy League this season. At first it seemed unfathomable to me that one of the most dominant Ivy teams of the last 40 years could be picked so low. But when I looked inside the numbers, it actually made a lot of sense.

What the model notes is that Penn loses their three most efficient and important players from last season: Zack Rosen, Tyler Bernardini, and Rob Belcore. Other than the middling efficiency of Miles Cartwright, the players that return this season are either extremely inefficient (Fran Dougherty, Henry Brooks) or are yet to shoot (Steve Rennard). And unfortunately for head coach Jerome Allen, over the last 10 years Penn has not been a school that's been able to bring in first-year players and get efficient seasons out of them. Ivy players need time to develop. And thus on paper, this looks like it might be one of the worst Pennsylvania offenses in some time.

Most surprises are not that drastic. But a number of the results should make us reevaluate our preconceived notions:

  • Pitt has a ton of elite talent, and may be better than we think.
  • San Diego State adds some talented players, but their stats last season weren't quite as good as their NCAA seed would indicate.
  • Louisville loses highly efficient offensive players like Chris Smith and Kyle Kuric and now depends on highly inefficient players like Peyton Siva, Wayne Blackshear, Kevin Ware, and Russ Smith. The Cardinals should have the best defense in the nation, but even accounting for previous injuries, their offense remains a major question mark.
  • Baylor is clearly one of the most talented teams in the nation, but Scott Drew hasn't been able to turn that talent into wins quite like other elite coaches.
  • North Carolina is going to rely heavily on freshmen this year, and three of them will have to play vital roles. Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson, and Joel James almost have to play major minutes this season. And since no one in that trio is in the Can't Miss Top 10, or for that matter the Rarely Miss Top 20, inconsistent play might be unavoidable.

Of course the limit of the model is that the recruiting rankings, coaching data, and previous years' stats can't tell us everything. There may be a number of factors outside the model that deserve consideration.

For example, UCLA is the ultimate "on paper" team. On paper, the Bruins have a Final Four coach who knows how to develop players and coach elite defense. On paper, Ben Howland brings back three dominant forwards, and adds three guards/wings who are expected to be instant impact players. On paper, one of the new players is a 22-year-old point guard who as a top-50 prospect in high school was recruited heavily by both North Carolina and UCLA. On paper, the other two new players are top-5 recruits with off-the-chart talent.

But what the model doesn't see is what the rest of us fear. Will Josh Smith ever get in shape and be a dominant player for 35 minutes a game? Above and beyond his statistical shortcomings at North Carolina, wasn't Larry Drew a negative drag on his teammates? Which UCLA players will be eligible? (I assume Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson are eligible in my projections.) Will the plethora of big men slow down the offense? Can Anderson defend opposing guards? Can Howland survive the pressure after all the chaos in recent years? All of those factors matter. None are inputs for a statistical model.

Similarly, many of the counter-intuitive results are due to the defensive projections. Given how little predictive power the defensive statistics have, I tried to move the ball forward by incorporating coach-level defensive effects. But I will readily admit the defensive model is not perfect.

Michigan is almost certainly too low in my prediction, but I haven't been able to use historic data to generate a higher ranking for the Wolverines. John Beilein has never had a top-25 defense, and a team of newcomers is not the situation where a coach typically has his best defensive season. Then again this is the most athletic team Beilein has ever had in Ann Arbor, and it feels like Michigan's defense will be better than what is projected here.

By the same token, New Mexico feels too high to me. Certainly Steve Alford doesn't get enough credit as a defensive coach. His 2006 Iowa team was one of the best defensive teams in the last decade. And the model believes Alex Kirk might be able to return from injury and help fill in for the loss of Drew Gordon in the paint. But it still feels like the Lobos' defense should fall off more than the model predicts.

In the end, you will probably see some results you agree with, and some where you think the model overlooks something. But don't just listen to my opinion. Every D-I team is discussed in the upcoming College Basketball Prospectus book by a team of extremely talented writers. Some of those writers agree with my numbers. Some of them reach completely different conclusions.

Also, be sure to check out the model's lineup projections at the front of the book. These player-level projections usually make it clear why a team is ranked high or low. Of course due to space limitations, only a limited number of lineup projections (my top 30 teams) made it into the book. But if you buy a copy and don't see the lineup projection you wanted to see, just send me a tweet and I'll do my best to address various lineup and projection based questions in future columns.

For example, as editor John Gasaway asked me a few weeks ago: How can the model predict a 10-8 season for Rutgers? The answer of course is that the Scarlet Knights bring back all their key perimeter players and flip Gilvydas Biruta for Wally Judge in the paint. While Judge's numbers at Kansas State were pretty terrible, it turns out that for transfers, the stats at the previous school don't have nearly as much predictive power as other factors. On average in the last decade, major-conference to major-conference transfers have been key contributors for their new teams, and former elite recruits have thrived in new environments. And thus the model predicts that Judge, a former top-20 recruit, will provide the needed upgrade in the paint to take Rutgers to the next level.

A few final thoughts:

  • With no fewer than five legitimate contenders, who will win the new-look 16-team Atlantic 10?
  • With eight teams predicted to finish 9-9 or better, is the Big 12 race the most exciting in the nation? Take it from Bob Huggins: "If we're the sixth-best team in the league, it's a hell of a league."
  • Are you ready to get on the Davidson and Robert Morris bandwagons?
  • Or will the love affair with Murray State and Belmont continue?

Here are the model's team projections, 1 to 345, with predicted conference wins and losses ("CW" and "CL"), last season's offensive and defensive ratings, predictions for this season's numbers in those categories, and a projected Pythagorean expectation ("Pyth"). Enjoy:

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1 Indiana                   B10   14    4   120.6    95.3   124.9    93.8   .949
  2 Kentucky                  SEC   15    3   122.9    88.2   119.8    90.8   .945
  3 UCLA                      P12   15    3   107.3    93.0   119.5    91.2   .941
  4 Kansas                    B12   13    5   114.2    86.0   110.7    86.2   .928
  5 Michigan St.              B10   13    5   115.2    85.8   113.9    89.1   .926
  6 Florida                   SEC   14    4   121.1    95.9   120.0    94.0   .924
  7 Duke                      ACC   14    4   116.1    95.8   116.9    91.6   .924
  8 Ohio St.                  B10   13    5   117.4    85.2   111.4    87.6   .921
  9 Arizona                   P12   14    4   106.8    93.8   117.2    92.6   .918
 10 Louisville                 BE   13    5   105.0    84.0   105.2    83.2   .917
 11 Syracuse                   BE   13    5   118.1    90.3   116.7    92.5   .916
 12 NC State                  ACC   13    5   111.0    95.4   116.9    94.3   .900
 13 Gonzaga                   WCC   14    2   111.7    92.9   115.3    93.7   .894
 14 UNLV                      MWC   12    4   107.4    92.9   111.4    90.6   .893
 15 New Mexico                MWC   11    5   111.0    89.7   112.6    91.7   .892
 16 Missouri                  SEC   12    6   125.4    98.4   119.6    97.7   .888
 17 Tennessee                 SEC   12    6   104.8    93.3   111.8    91.4   .887
 18 Memphis                  CUSA   14    2   113.2    88.7   113.1    92.6   .886
 19 Pittsburgh                 BE   11    7   112.5   100.3   117.4    96.1   .886
 20 Texas                     B12   11    7   111.4    94.1   112.5    92.2   .886

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 21 Marquette                  BE   11    7   110.9    89.2   111.4    91.5   .883
 22 Notre Dame                 BE   11    7   109.7    95.0   113.1    93.2   .879
 23 Minnesota                 B10   11    7   107.9    94.4   111.9    92.6   .875
 24 Creighton                 MVC   15    3   118.5   101.8   117.8    97.6   .873
 25 Baylor                    B12   11    7   116.2    93.4   115.1    95.4   .873
 26 North Carolina            ACC   12    6   114.7    88.6   110.1    91.5   .870
 27 Georgetown                 BE   11    7   110.7    87.8   109.4    90.9   .869
 28 Alabama                   SEC   11    7   104.4    87.9   108.0    89.9   .868
 29 Kansas St.                B12   11    7   109.0    91.1   108.6    90.4   .868
 30 Iowa St.                  B12   11    7   112.9    94.9   113.5    94.5   .867
 31 Stanford                  P12   11    7   106.6    90.6   111.4    92.8   .867
 32 St. Louis                 A10   12    4   110.8    88.3   107.2    89.3   .866
 33 Wisconsin                 B10   10    8   114.3    87.1   104.1    86.8   .865
 34 Miami FL                  ACC   12    6   109.9    96.1   113.6    94.7   .865
 35 Arkansas                  SEC   11    7   104.6   101.3   116.1    97.1   .862
 36 Butler                    A10   12    4    98.0    92.5   109.5    91.7   .860
 37 Saint Joseph's            A10   12    4   109.2    98.0   113.9    95.5   .859
 38 Florida St.               ACC   11    7   107.0    89.3   110.3    92.6   .857
 39 Temple                    A10   12    4   112.0    97.4   111.6    94.1   .852
 40 California                P12   11    7   109.6    92.1   110.7    93.7   .848

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 41 San Diego St.             MWC   10    6   105.4    94.7   109.5    92.9   .844
 42 Ohio                      MAC   14    2   105.2    93.7   108.2    92.2   .838
 43 Rutgers                    BE   10    8   100.8    95.7   109.9    93.9   .835
 44 Michigan                  B10    9    9   113.0    95.1   110.7    94.5   .834
 45 USC                       P12   10    8    87.6    94.4   105.6    90.3   .832
 46 Northern Iowa             MVC   14    4   105.0    96.5   112.3    96.1   .831
 47 Oklahoma St.              B12    9    9   105.9    98.1   109.2    93.9   .825
 48 VCU                       A10   11    5   105.3    91.2   106.3    91.7   .819
 49 Murray St.                OVC   14    2   105.7    91.8   108.1    93.6   .814
 50 St. Mary's                WCC   12    4   112.2    97.2   113.2    98.1   .814
 51 Davidson                   SC   16    2   110.4    98.9   112.5    97.4   .814
 52 Cincinnati                 BE    9    9   109.6    91.8   106.1    92.0   .812
 53 Oklahoma                  B12    9    9   103.1    97.2   112.2    97.3   .812
 54 Illinois                  B10    9    9   103.3    93.3   108.7    94.4   .810
 55 West Virginia             B12    9    9   109.8    96.5   107.1    93.3   .805
 56 Mississippi               SEC    9    9   104.1    95.7   109.5    95.9   .796
 57 Wyoming                   MWC    8    8    99.2    92.5   101.3    89.1   .790
 58 Villanova                  BE    8   10   107.8    98.4   106.9    94.2   .784
 59 Robert Morris             NEC   15    3   104.2    99.7   109.8    97.0   .781
 60 Bucknell                  Pat   12    2   105.4    97.5   110.5    97.8   .779

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 61 Virginia                  ACC    9    9   102.9    87.7   103.5    91.8   .774
 62 Drexel                    CAA   14    4   109.7    95.1   105.9    94.0   .774
 63 Akron                     MAC   13    3   106.5    97.1   108.1    96.2   .767
 64 Iowa                      B10    7   11   110.9   101.9   110.8    98.6   .766
 65 Colorado                  P12    9    9   103.0    93.2   106.1    94.6   .764
 66 Washington                P12    8   10   108.4    95.2   106.8    95.6   .756
 67 BYU                       WCC   11    5   104.1    91.7   103.2    92.4   .756
 68 Virginia Tech             ACC    9    9   105.3    97.1   107.4    96.3   .755
 69 Seton Hall                 BE    7   11   104.8    92.8   102.8    92.2   .751
 70 Colorado St.              MWC    7    9   109.3   101.5   110.3    99.1   .748
 71 South Florida              BE    7   11   101.7    88.9   103.8    93.4   .748
 72 LSU                       SEC    8   10    99.6    92.8   103.9    93.4   .748
 73 Purdue                    B10    7   11   116.7    97.1   103.3    93.1   .744
 74 Belmont                   OVC   13    3   116.3    97.0   110.0    99.6   .734
 75 Massachusetts             A10    9    7   105.4    95.3   106.2    96.2   .734
 76 St. John's                 BE    7   11   102.3   101.3   107.2    97.1   .734
 77 South Dakota St.          Sum   13    3   111.4    98.9   112.9   102.2   .734
 78 Boise St.                 MWC    7    9   102.7   102.5   110.7   100.6   .728
 79 Lehigh                    Pat   12    2   106.2    97.2   108.5    98.7   .724
 80 College of Charleston      SC   15    3    99.7    99.8   105.1    95.9   .719

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 81 Washington St.            P12    7   11   108.6    99.8   108.1    98.7   .718
 82 Central Florida          CUSA   10    6   104.4    98.4   107.2    98.0   .715
 83 Oregon St.                P12    7   11   109.6   100.7   108.4    99.1   .715
 84 Manhattan                MAAC   14    4   101.6    97.2   105.8    96.9   .713
 85 South Carolina            SEC    8   10   101.6   101.0   105.8    96.8   .712
 86 Fresno St.                MWC    7    9    98.9   101.3   107.5    98.4   .712
 87 Detroit                  Horz   12    4   106.1   101.0   109.9   100.6   .712
 88 Penn St.                  B10    6   12   100.8    97.3   104.1    95.3   .711
 89 Vermont                    AE   14    2   102.9    97.6   104.0    95.3   .710
 90 Clemson                   ACC    8   10   104.0    94.6   101.9    93.5   .708
 91 North Dakota St.          Sum   13    3   104.1   105.5   110.5   101.3   .708
 92 Illinois St.              MVC   11    7   107.8    98.6   105.9    97.4   .702
 93 North Texas                SB   15    5    98.5    98.2   105.2    96.8   .701
 94 Princeton                 Ivy   11    3   106.6    98.6   104.1    95.9   .699
 95 East Carolina            CUSA   10    6   102.9    99.5   109.0   100.5   .696
 96 Richmond                  A10    9    7   107.5   100.8   110.3   101.8   .694
 97 Middle Tennessee           SB   15    5   106.5    94.6   105.6    97.8   .687
 98 Oregon                    P12    7   11   115.4   101.0   107.0    99.3   .683
 99 Marshall                 CUSA   10    6   108.7    99.3   104.7    97.4   .678
100 Auburn                    SEC    7   11    96.1    95.4   104.3    97.1   .676

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
101 UTEP                     CUSA   10    6    99.5    97.6   101.7    94.7   .674
102 Northwestern              B10    6   12   113.6   102.2   108.4   101.0   .673
103 Wagner                    NEC   14    4   102.4    96.9   101.8    94.9   .671
104 Long Beach St.             BW   14    4   108.7    93.7   105.3    98.5   .665
105 DePaul                     BE    6   12   106.7   105.0   111.1   103.9   .664
106 Valparaiso               Horz   11    5   102.9   101.4   106.0    99.3   .660
107 Connecticut                BE    6   12   109.8    94.8   103.4    97.0   .659
108 Utah St.                  WAC   13    5   106.1   102.0   106.7   100.1   .658
109 Dayton                    A10    8    8   111.8    99.9   105.9    99.4   .656
110 Tennessee St.             OVC   12    4    98.4    99.6   104.4    98.2   .653
111 Maryland                  ACC    7   11   104.4   101.2   104.5    98.3   .652
112 Texas A&M                 SEC    7   11    99.9    94.7   101.7    95.7   .650
113 SC Upstate               ASun   13    5   100.9    97.6   103.7    97.7   .650
114 Nevada                    MWC    6   10   103.9    98.2   106.5   100.3   .650
115 Green Bay                Horz   10    6    99.0   101.4   105.0    99.2   .641
116 Georgia                   SEC    6   12   102.1    96.9   101.1    95.7   .638
117 Xavier                    A10    8    8   108.3    94.8   102.1    96.6   .637
118 La Salle                  A10    8    8   106.2    94.7   105.3    99.8   .635
119 Mercer                   ASun   13    5   103.9    95.9   105.0    99.6   .633
120 Old Dominion              CAA   11    7   101.1    94.3   100.6    95.5   .630

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
121 St. Bonaventure           A10    7    9   110.5    97.1   106.2   100.9   .629
122 Providence                 BE    5   13   108.3   103.8   107.4   102.2   .626
123 Florida Gulf Coast       ASun   13    5   103.5   105.1   108.1   103.0   .622
124 Georgia St.               CAA   11    7   100.4    90.6    99.4    95.1   .612
125 Northeastern              CAA   11    7    98.8   101.4   105.3   101.2   .600
126 Tulane                   CUSA    9    7    96.7   100.2   102.8    98.9   .599
127 Wichita St.               MVC    8   10   115.4    90.6    99.3    95.9   .588
128 Georgia Tech              ACC    5   13    95.8    98.1   100.5    97.2   .585
129 Evansville                MVC    8   10   108.7   103.9   105.2   102.0   .579
130 Arizona St.               P12    5   13    98.4   104.9   103.7   100.7   .576
131 Texas Tech                B12    4   14    91.9   100.2   103.5   100.4   .575
132 Columbia                  Ivy   10    4   100.4   103.3   104.6   101.6   .574
133 Iona                     MAAC   12    6   114.5   101.7   105.4   102.5   .570
134 South Alabama              SB   13    7    98.2   103.9   104.8   102.1   .565
135 Indiana St.               MVC    8   10    99.2    97.6    99.1    96.7   .562
136 St. Francis NY            NEC   12    6    95.0   100.1   101.5    99.1   .562
137 Delaware                  CAA   10    8   102.0   103.1   104.9   102.4   .561
138 Southern Illinois         MVC    8   10    96.3   103.4   101.5    99.2   .557
139 George Mason              CAA   10    8   102.5    96.5    98.5    96.4   .555
140 Montana                  BSky   15    5   101.3    95.0   102.2   100.1   .554

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
141 Cleveland St.            Horz    9    7   104.2    95.4    99.5    97.6   .550
142 Idaho                     WAC   11    7   104.3   104.4   103.9   102.2   .543
143 Air Force                 MWC    4   12    97.5   101.4   102.3   101.2   .530
144 Long Island               NEC   12    6   107.1   107.5   107.2   106.0   .527
145 Oral Roberts             Slnd   14    4   108.9   102.7   102.9   102.0   .523
146 Santa Clara               WCC    8    8   101.5   113.1   109.9   108.9   .523
147 Quinnipiac                NEC   12    6   102.9   100.7   102.3   101.5   .519
148 George Washington         A10    6   10    99.7   101.3   101.2   100.5   .517
149 James Madison             CAA    9    9    99.5   107.5   104.6   104.1   .511
150 Hawaii                     BW   11    7   101.1   106.6   102.7   102.4   .509
151 Nebraska                  B10    3   15   100.2    99.9   101.1   100.8   .508
152 New Mexico St.            WAC   10    8   107.4    96.1    98.7    98.6   .505
153 Texas Arlington           WAC   10    8   103.5    98.1    99.3    99.1   .505
154 Western Kentucky           SB   12    8    96.5    99.1    96.8    96.7   .504
155 Harvard                   Ivy    9    5   107.4    93.3   101.0   100.9   .504
156 Niagara                  MAAC   10    8   101.2   109.2   105.1   105.0   .503
157 Fairfield                MAAC   10    8    99.1    92.6    94.8    94.8   .501
158 Denver                    WAC   10    8   108.8    99.4   100.1   100.3   .495
159 Louisiana Tech            WAC   10    8   100.2   102.9   100.0   100.2   .494
160 San Diego                 WCC    7    9   100.0   104.8   100.4   100.6   .494

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
161 Kent St.                  MAC   10    6   103.1    99.7   101.6   101.9   .493
162 Utah                      P12    4   14    89.6   105.7   103.1   103.4   .491
163 NC Wilmington             CAA    9    9    97.4   105.6   101.9   102.3   .490
164 Southern Miss            CUSA    7    9   109.3    99.3   100.5   101.0   .486
165 Portland                  WCC    7    9    95.8   107.9   103.2   103.9   .483
166 Youngstown St.           Horz    8    8   104.3   104.7   102.9   103.6   .482
167 Wake Forest               ACC    4   14    99.8   104.8   106.6   107.4   .480
168 Drake                     MVC    7   11    98.4    96.9    99.3   100.1   .479
169 Loyola MD                MAAC   10    8   102.3    98.5   101.7   102.7   .474
170 Stephen F. Austin        Slnd   13    5    95.8    94.3    95.6    96.7   .469
171 Boston College            ACC    4   14    92.6   102.4   100.5   102.0   .464
172 Missouri St.              MVC    6   12   103.3    96.7    97.3    98.8   .461
173 Houston                  CUSA    7    9   102.7   106.1   103.0   104.6   .460
174 SMU                      CUSA    7    9    94.9    98.9    95.9    97.5   .458
175 Jacksonville St.          OVC   10    6    97.2   101.0   100.5   102.3   .456
176 Sacred Heart              NEC   11    7    99.8   107.6   103.9   105.8   .454
177 Toledo                    MAC    9    7   100.8   105.7   101.6   103.5   .452
178 Buffalo                   MAC    9    7   106.1    99.2    97.6    99.5   .451
179 Weber St.                BSky   14    6   107.2   105.8   102.6   104.7   .449
180 Pacific                    BW   10    8    94.7   107.6   101.8   104.0   .446

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
181 Vanderbilt                SEC    4   14   115.7    92.7    94.2    96.4   .442
182 UC Irvine                  BW   10    8    94.8   104.1    99.8   102.2   .440
183 Arkansas St.               SB   10   10   101.1   105.3    99.3   101.9   .435
184 Texas Southern           SWAC   16    2    89.2   101.4    99.6   102.3   .431
185 Elon                       SC   11    7    95.3   105.1   100.6   103.3   .430
186 Stetson                  ASun   10    8    99.1   107.4   102.2   105.2   .426
187 Northern Colorado        BSky   13    7   102.3   112.4   105.1   108.4   .421
188 Morehead St.              OVC    9    7    98.0   101.4    95.1    98.2   .419
189 TCU                       B12    2   16   105.1   104.6    97.2   100.4   .418
190 Cal Poly                   BW   10    8   102.7   103.7   100.8   104.1   .416
191 UAB                      CUSA    6   10    99.7    96.7    98.1   101.4   .416
192 Louisiana Lafayette        SB   10   10    91.4    96.4    94.6    97.9   .413
193 Florida Atlantic           SB   10   10    98.4   103.1   102.0   105.6   .410
194 Bowling Green             MAC    8    8   101.6    98.8    97.8   101.5   .406
195 North Dakota             BSky   13    7    93.4   103.7    98.2   101.9   .406
196 Cornell                   Ivy    7    7    95.8   100.5    95.6    99.3   .405
197 Savannah St.             MEAC   12    4    92.6    94.5    93.6    97.2   .403
198 Western Illinois          Sum    9    7    94.8    97.6    95.8    99.5   .402
199 Marist                   MAAC    9    9    96.1   105.1    99.2   103.2   .399
200 Loyola Marymount          WCC    6   10   100.2    98.5    96.9   101.0   .397

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
201 Milwaukee                Horz    6   10    98.5    97.4    96.0   100.1   .395
202 Hofstra                   CAA    7   11    96.7   102.4    98.5   102.8   .393
203 Loyola Chicago           Horz    6   10    93.4   105.7    99.3   103.7   .392
204 North Florida            ASun    9    9   100.0   103.7    99.9   104.4   .389
205 Cal St. Fullerton          BW    9    9   106.7   108.3   102.3   107.5   .377
206 Bradley                   MVC    5   13    90.8   101.9    96.3   101.2   .374
207 American                  Pat    8    6    99.1   100.9    97.1   102.1   .374
208 Duquesne                  A10    4   12   104.7   101.2    96.9   102.0   .371
209 Wright St.               Horz    6   10    92.6    98.5    93.3    98.5   .365
210 NC Asheville             BSth   11    5   108.4   102.8    99.6   105.2   .364
211 SE Missouri St.           OVC    8    8   103.0   110.1   102.8   108.6   .362
212 Canisius                 MAAC    8   10    93.7   113.0   104.3   110.5   .355
213 Albany                     AE   10    6   106.6   110.8   101.4   107.7   .352
214 Seattle                   WAC    7   11    96.5   102.6    96.4   102.4   .350
215 Arkansas Little Rock       SB    9   11    96.1    98.4    93.0    98.9   .348
216 Oakland                   Sum    8    8   112.4   111.2   102.8   109.4   .344
217 Gardner Webb             BSth   11    5    92.8   103.2    95.3   101.7   .340
218 Western Michigan          MAC    7    9   102.9   105.5    97.2   103.9   .336
219 Stony Brook                AE    9    7   102.1    99.3    94.1   100.7   .333
220 Army                      Pat    7    7    91.1   105.6    95.9   102.7   .331

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
221 Southern Utah            BSky   11    9    95.6   103.1    97.0   104.0   .329
222 UC Davis                   BW    8   10    90.2   112.7   104.2   111.9   .326
223 Fordham                   A10    4   12    92.9   104.1    98.9   106.3   .324
224 Florida International      SB    8   12    97.3   104.4    94.0   101.1   .322
225 IPFW                      Sum    7    9    95.2   106.9    98.5   106.0   .320
226 Mississippi St.           SEC    2   16   109.9   101.3    92.3    99.5   .316
227 Texas St.                 WAC    7   11    97.1   108.1    98.3   106.2   .311
228 UC Santa Barbara           BW    7   11   109.8   102.8    94.7   102.4   .308
229 Charlotte                 A10    3   13    98.4    97.7    90.0    97.5   .305
230 Coastal Carolina         BSth   10    6   101.2   104.4    97.4   105.5   .304
231 Texas San Antonio         WAC    6   12   101.4   103.5    96.5   104.8   .301
232 NC Greensboro              SC    9    9    95.5   106.7    97.1   105.5   .300
233 Lipscomb                 ASun    7   11    98.9   103.4    97.6   106.0   .300
234 Miami OH                  MAC    7    9   100.0   104.1    95.0   103.2   .299
235 Ball St.                  MAC    7    9    97.5   102.9    93.9   102.1   .297
236 Delaware St.             MEAC   11    5    98.9   108.3   100.1   108.9   .297
237 William & Mary            CAA    6   12    95.9   109.0    97.9   106.5   .296
238 San Jose St.              WAC    6   12    97.1   108.7    97.2   105.8   .295
239 Liberty                  BSth   10    6    98.6   110.1    97.8   106.5   .295
240 East Tennessee St.       ASun    7   11    99.8    97.9    93.5   101.9   .293

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
241 Siena                    MAAC    6   12    95.5   102.1    95.1   103.7   .292
242 Cal St. Bakersfield       ind              98.6   107.9    99.6   108.6   .291
243 Mount St. Mary's          NEC    8   10    91.1   105.1    95.9   104.8   .287
244 Eastern Kentucky          OVC    7    9    98.3   110.1    99.8   109.3   .284
245 Utah Valley               GWC    6    2    96.8   105.0    95.5   104.5   .283
246 Sam Houston St.          Slnd   10    8    86.8    99.9    92.0   100.9   .281
247 Chattanooga                SC    8   10    95.4   105.3    95.8   105.1   .280
248 Eastern Michigan          MAC    6   10    87.8    99.3    89.0    97.7   .278
249 SE Louisiana             Slnd   10    8    83.7    99.6    92.6   102.0   .272
250 Campbell                 BSth    9    7   100.7   109.1    98.4   108.4   .271
251 Yale                      Ivy    5    9    98.8    98.5    94.8   104.5   .269
252 Charleston Southern      BSth    9    7   101.9   104.0    98.9   109.2   .266
253 VMI                      BSth    9    7    99.7   109.9   101.5   112.1   .265
254 Rhode Island              A10    3   13   101.0   105.6    97.4   107.7   .264
255 Maine                      AE    8    8    94.0   105.0    94.1   104.0   .264
256 Montana St.              BSky   10   10    93.5   108.8    98.3   108.6   .264
257 UMKC                      Sum    6   10    96.5   110.2    95.9   106.0   .263
258 Cal St. Northridge         BW    6   12    95.8   112.4    97.6   108.2   .259
259 Western Carolina           SC    8   10    99.1   106.6    94.8   105.1   .257
260 Furman                     SC    8   10    95.5   103.5    93.5   103.8   .255

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
261 Jacksonville             ASun    6   12    97.7   104.6    94.8   105.3   .255
262 Rider                    MAAC    6   12   102.2   106.5    96.7   107.5   .252
263 Georgia Southern           SC    8   10    95.4   103.3    93.5   104.0   .251
264 Tennessee Tech            OVC    6   10   100.2   104.8    96.6   107.5   .249
265 Morgan St.               MEAC   10    6    95.8   107.0    93.4   104.2   .247
266 Austin Peay               OVC    6   10    99.7   105.6    96.0   107.3   .241
267 IUPUI                     Sum    6   10   105.6   110.2    99.4   111.2   .241
268 Dartmouth                 Ivy    5    9    88.9   103.0    91.7   102.6   .240
269 Wofford                    SC    8   10   100.0   104.0    94.2   105.5   .239
270 North Carolina A&T       MEAC   10    6    91.3   106.7    93.4   104.7   .237
271 Bethune Cookman          MEAC   10    6    99.4   110.8    99.8   111.9   .236
272 Illinois Chicago         Horz    4   12    94.8   108.6    95.3   107.0   .235
273 Boston University          AE    7    9    97.2    99.3    89.5   100.5   .235
274 Tulsa                    CUSA    3   13   105.0    97.0    90.0   101.0   .234
275 San Francisco             WCC    4   12   107.5   105.4    93.3   104.8   .232
276 Jackson St.              SWAC   13    5    85.0   109.6    94.2   106.1   .227
277 Northwestern St.         Slnd    9    9    94.5   101.7    93.4   105.3   .226
278 Rice                     CUSA    3   13    99.0    97.8    92.3   104.1   .226
279 Brown                     Ivy    5    9    91.9   110.1    97.6   110.1   .225
280 South Dakota              Sum    6   10    96.2   109.1    98.5   111.4   .221

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
281 New Hampshire              AE    7    9    89.3   102.4    91.5   103.7   .218
282 Monmouth                  NEC    6   12    95.5   107.3    93.8   106.3   .217
283 Eastern Washington       BSky    8   12    98.8   104.7    96.7   109.6   .216
284 Holy Cross                Pat    5    9    95.8   102.5    92.8   105.3   .215
285 Pennsylvania              Ivy    4   10   101.9    99.1    89.7   102.0   .213
286 St. Peter's              MAAC    5   13    86.4   105.7    89.3   101.5   .212
287 Troy                       SB    5   15   101.9   113.4    97.3   110.6   .212
288 McNeese St.              Slnd    8   10    99.3   106.1    93.7   106.6   .211
289 Sacramento St.           BSky    8   12    95.8   110.1    95.3   109.2   .198
290 UMBC                       AE    6   10    88.2   114.8    96.4   110.7   .194
291 Central Connecticut       NEC    6   12    97.8   102.7    91.5   105.2   .193
292 The Citadel                SC    6   12    89.7   109.2    95.7   110.1   .192
293 UC Riverside               BW    5   13    87.6    99.5    89.7   103.5   .188
294 Texas A&M CC             Slnd    8   10    87.1   105.3    89.5   103.4   .185
295 Tennessee Martin          OVC    5   11    90.5   115.6    96.4   111.4   .184
296 Hartford                   AE    6   10    89.4   105.1    90.4   104.8   .179
297 Pepperdine                WCC    3   13    91.7   104.8    89.7   104.1   .179
298 North Carolina Central   MEAC    8    8    95.4    99.9    89.7   104.3   .176
299 Idaho St.                BSky    7   13    93.7   111.3    94.9   110.8   .171
300 Lafayette                 Pat    5    9   103.0   110.9    95.4   111.6   .167

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
301 Navy                      Pat    4   10    89.2   110.1    93.0   108.9   .166
302 Samford                    SC    6   12   100.2   112.0    96.7   113.3   .164
303 Lamar                    Slnd    7   11   105.8   100.2    85.2   100.0   .163
304 Howard                   MEAC    8    8    86.7   106.4    90.3   106.5   .156
305 Nebraska Omaha            Sum    4   12    94.0   117.8    98.7   116.4   .155
306 Southern                 SWAC   11    7    86.8   107.8    91.5   108.2   .151
307 Bryant                    NEC    5   13    91.0   115.9    96.7   114.5   .151
308 Appalachian St.            SC    5   13    98.1   107.4    91.9   108.7   .151
309 Radford                  BSth    6   10    87.9   105.7    87.8   104.1   .148
310 Houston Baptist           GWC    4    4    90.2   110.6    94.3   112.0   .146
311 Prairie View A&M         SWAC   11    7    83.0   104.5    87.5   104.0   .145
312 Hampton                  MEAC    8    8    89.8   101.8    86.6   102.9   .145
313 Portland St.             BSky    6   14   105.2   110.6    96.2   114.5   .144
314 Presbyterian             BSth    6   10    99.8   109.1    90.8   108.7   .136
315 Nicholls St.             Slnd    6   12    94.0   119.4    96.1   115.2   .135
316 Northern Arizona         BSky    5   15    86.9   113.3    93.9   113.1   .130
317 Binghamton                 AE    5   11    85.3   112.4    94.3   113.6   .129
318 Winthrop                 BSth    6   10    92.7   102.2    87.0   104.9   .129
319 High Point               BSth    6   10   103.5   110.9    91.2   109.9   .128
320 Texas Pan American        GWC    4    4    89.5   108.7    90.1   108.9   .125

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
321 Northern Illinois         MAC    3   13    87.0   109.9    88.1   106.7   .123
322 NJIT                      GWC    4    4    94.3   109.6    89.4   108.3   .123
323 Florida A&M              MEAC    7    9    90.8   110.7    92.3   112.0   .121
324 Central Michigan          MAC    3   13    94.9   106.0    89.1   108.3   .119
325 SIU Edwardsville          OVC    4   12    92.5   110.1    89.9   109.3   .118
326 Central Arkansas         Slnd    5   13    89.6   111.9    90.6   110.8   .113
327 Norfolk St.              MEAC    6   10    97.7   102.1    87.5   107.1   .112
328 Kennesaw St.             ASun    3   15    94.4   114.5    91.7   112.7   .108
329 Louisiana Monroe           SB    3   17    93.4   112.6    93.2   114.6   .108
330 St. Francis PA            NEC    4   14    91.3   109.2    88.9   109.9   .102
331 Md. Eastern Shore        MEAC    6   10    83.9   106.5    87.4   108.5   .098
332 Fairleigh Dickinson       NEC    3   15    86.1   108.3    87.9   109.4   .096
333 Colgate                   Pat    3   11    95.1   115.8    92.5   115.2   .095
334 Arkansas Pine Bluff      SWAC    8   10    90.3   112.8    87.1   108.6   .095
335 Alcorn St.               SWAC    8   10    85.0   109.7    86.4   107.8   .094
336 Alabama St.              SWAC    8   10    84.3   105.2    83.9   105.5   .087
337 Towson                    CAA    1   17    83.8   108.5    85.2   107.5   .085
338 South Carolina St.       MEAC    5   11    88.4   117.0    88.4   113.3   .073
339 Chicago St.               GWC    2    6    85.3   109.6    85.9   111.0   .067
340 Alabama A&M              SWAC    7   11    87.1   113.6    87.5   113.6   .064

 Rk School                   Conf   CW   CL  ORtg12  DRtg12  ORtg13  DRtg13   Pyth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
341 Mississippi Valley St.   SWAC    6   12    94.2   103.9    82.0   108.0   .056
342 Longwood                 BSth    3   13    93.9   122.6    90.5   119.3   .056
343 Eastern Illinois          OVC    2   14    94.0   110.7    86.2   114.3   .053
344 Coppin St.               MEAC    3   13   103.8   117.0    84.4   112.8   .049
345 Grambling                SWAC    2   16    80.2   116.8    78.4   118.7   .014

Follow Dan on Twitter. Dan Hanner writes about college hoops at RealGM.com, and is a longtime contributor to the College Basketball Prospectus book series.

This free article is an example of the content available to Basketball Prospectus Premium subscribers. See our Premium page for more details and to subscribe.

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis (10/29)
Next Article >>
Prospectus Roundtable (10/30)

RECENTLY AT BASKETBALL PROSPECTUS
State of Basketball Prospectus: A Brief Anno...
Tuesday Truths: March-at-Last Edition
Easy Bubble Solver: The Triumphant Return
Premium Article Bubbles of their Own Making: Villanova, Temp...
Tuesday Truths: Crunch Time Edition

MORE FROM OCTOBER 29, 2012
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Harden to Houston

MORE BY DAN HANNER
2012-10-29 - Indiana's No. 1: Preseason Rankings 1 to 345
2012-10-12 - So You Want to Predict the Future: Beta Test...
More...


Basketball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2014 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.