January 26, 2009
The Other Seven Guys
Picking All-Star Reserves

by Kevin Pelton

The NBA's voting for the 2009 All-Star Game was fraught with peril. Judging by the final voting totals released by the league last week, we narrowly escaped two of the weakest All-Star starters in recent memory. At least the candidacy of New Jersey's Yi Jianlian was easy to explain--the sophomore forward has the world's most populous nation voting for him online. More mysterious is the explanation for how San Antonio forward Bruce Bowen came within 70,000 votes of unseating Amar'e Stoudemire for a starting spot in the West, given Bowen's playing time has been cut this season and that he was not one of the top 10 vote-getters at forward a year ago.

The lineups selected by the fans ultimately turned out quite well, thanks to Chris Paul passing Tracy McGrady for a spot in the West backcourt at the last minute. The only player amongst the starters who would not likely have been selected as a reserve is Detroit's Allen Iverson, and given his long track record of success, it's hard to quibble much with the pick.

Now, the last seven spots on each roster are in the hands of the coaches in each conference, with the results to be announced Thursday. That gives me a chance to offer my thoughts. In general, I follow the Potter Stewart rule when selecting All-Stars--I know them when I see them. I don't think All-Star selections should strictly be based on performance during the first half of the season; there's got to be an element of long-term production as well. Still, it's a good idea to start with an assessment of this year's performance, so here are eligible reserves in both conferences ranked by Wins Above Replacement Player (stats through Jan. 24):

Player      Tm   Win%  WARP      Player      Tm   Win%  WARP

Bosh       TOR   .647   8.4      Roy        POR   .659   7.3
Rondo      BOS   .663   7.5      Camby      LAC   .699   7.2
Harris     NJN   .647   6.5      Biedrins   GSW   .658   7.0
Carter     NJN   .597   6.1      Gasol      LAL   .641   6.8
Okafor     CHA   .612   6.1      Kidd       DAL   .626   6.6
Granger    IND   .605   5.8      Nowitzki   DAL   .609   6.4
Bibby      ATL   .604   5.8      Billups    DEN   .623   6.3
Lewis      ORL   .589   5.7      Jefferson  MIN   .616   6.2
Wallace    CHA   .600   5.6      Millsap    UTA   .656   6.1
Iguodala   PHI   .581   5.6      O'Neal     PHX   .664   5.4
Nelson     ORL   .635   5.5      Nenê       DEN   .598   5.3
Pierce     BOS   .571   5.4      Kirilenko  UTA   .637   5.2
Jamison    WAS   .566   5.1      Parker     SAS   .619   4.7
Calderon   TOR   .623   5.0      Bynum      LAL   .591   4.5
Lee        NYK   .573   4.9      Durant     OKC   .541   4.4
Miller     PHI   .565   4.7      Terry      DAL   .558   4.4
Johnson    ATL   .547   4.6      Nash       PHX   .577   4.2
Allen      BOS   .550   4.5      Ginobili   SAS   .665   4.1
                                 Williams   UTA   .593   4.0

This is every player in the league over 4.0 WARP, or basically the group of players in the discussion. There are two other guys worth considering that are missing because of injuries: Cleveland's Zydrunas Ilgauskas (.634 Win%, 3.3 WARP) and Denver's Carmelo Anthony (.527 Win%, 2.4 WARP).

Eastern Conference

Guards - Devin Harris, New Jersey; Rajon Rondo, Boston

As I concluded in my breakdown of the East's top point guards two weeks ago, "In an ideal world, both [Harris and Rondo] would be named as reserves to the Eastern Conference All-Star team." This is my ideal world, so they're on as the backup backcourt.

Forwards - Danny Granger, Indiana; Paul Pierce, Boston

I've been remiss in not spotlighting Granger at all during what has been a breakout season for the fourth-year forward. Taking on a leading role with Mike Dunleavy sidelined most of the year, Granger is sixth in the league in usage rate and tied for the best True Shooting Percentage (with LeBron James) of any player in the top 10. By his high standards, Pierce has not had an exceptional first half, and if I was going strictly by performance this season, he would not make my team. However, the difference is small and Pierce's track record of success gives him the nod.

Center - Chris Bosh, Toronto

This is a bit of a stretch, since Bosh generally plays alongside either Andrea Bargnani or Jermaine O'Neal in the middle, though not an extreme one by All-Star standards. At either forward or center, Bosh is a no-brainer, the Raptors' uneven season aside. Emeka Okafor is another tweener big man who has quietly put together an excellent season, while Ilgauskas was clearly playing at an All-Star level before his injury and I would not argue with anyone who put him in this spot.

Utility - Vince Carter, New Jersey; Jameer Nelson, Orlando

Here things get really interesting, with two spots to choose from amongst a group of players without a lot to separate them statistically. Carter is my first pick; he's tops by WARP and obviously has a long history of All-Star-caliber play. For my last spot, I'm taking a sixth guard and a third point guard. Nelson's selection is based heavily on 2008-09 performance; anyone predicting an All-Star berth before the season would have been laughed out of the room. Still, Nelson has been splendid during the first half and has been indispensable to the Magic's emergence as a championship contender. He rounds out my squad.

Western Conference

Guards - Chauncey Billups, Denver; Brandon Roy, Portland

Apparently it required a change of scenery for observers around the league to appreciate just how valuable Billups is to his team. With the Nuggets atop the Northwest Division and the Pistons floundering, it's clear that Billups has been better than the East's starting point guard this year, and the gap is large. There is a large contingent of All-Star-caliber point guards in the Western Conference, yet I never thought twice about making Billups the first one I selected. Roy slipped in the WARP rankings a bit when sidelined with a hamstring injury, but still leads all eligible West reserves. At this point, he has to be considered a no-brainer selection.

Forwards - Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers; Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas

Power forward in the Western Conference is the strongest position in the league. Stoudemire and Tim Duncan will start, while Gasol and Nowitzki are obvious picks as reserves. I hope Nowitzki likes chasing Paul Pierce and Vince Carter around the perimeter. I was somewhat skeptical about how well Gasol would fit alongside Andrew Bynum in the Lakers lineup this season, a fear that has quickly proven to be entirely unfounded. Playing either power forward or center, Gasol has continued his torrid level of play in a triangle offense that seems almost perfectly designed for his myriad skills.

Center - Shaquille O'Neal, Phoenix

You could have gotten pretty good odds on O'Neal making the All-Star Game this year after he looked creaky through much of the 2007-08 campaign. Credit O'Neal for getting himself in better shape and looking like the O'Neal of old, not an old O'Neal. With apologies to Andris Biedrins and Marcus Camby, whose WARP numbers are padded by high block totals on dismal teams, O'Neal gets the nod at center.

Utility - Jason Kidd, Dallas; Paul Millsap, Utah

At least one of the two utility spots in the West has to go to a third point guard, and the names are as big as they come--Kidd, Steve Nash, Tony Parker and Deron Williams. Surprisingly, Kidd has been the most valuable of the group by WARP, and by a substantial margin. Yes, the numbers understate his defensive shortcomings at this point in his career, but I think Kidd's production has been underrated because of the comparison with rising star Harris and because the Mavericks are no longer legitimate contenders in the Western Conference. The player once nicknamed "Ason" (no J) is hitting 39.2 percent of his three attempts and his True Shooting Percentage (54.1 percent) is a career high. If Kidd's defense is hurting the Mavericks, it isn't evident in the plus-minus numbers--Dallas is 12.0 points better per 100 possessions with Kidd on the floor. Besides all that, the All-Star Game is more fun with Kidd running the point, is it not?

The last spot on the roster could go to a fourth point guard. It could go to another wing (Andrei Kirilenko or Kevin Durant), since the West roster as I've constructed it is seriously lacking in that department. Or it could go to any number of big men. My choice is somewhat sentimental. I've been a Millsap fan dating back to his college days, and have been waiting for him to get his NBA opportunity. It came when Carlos Boozer was sidelined early in the season, and as I wrote not long ago, Millsap has yet to look back. There's an outside chance this is just a hot streak, but I'm willing to take that risk. Millsap started the season as a reserve, and he might just end it as an All-Star.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.