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The All-Star break is upon us, and as the NBA pauses to celebrate its best players this weekend in Phoenix, it seems like an appropriate time to fill out my imaginary awards ballot as of midseason.
MVP
1. LeBron James, Cleveland
2. Chris Paul, New Orleans
3. Dwyane Wade, Miami
4. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
5. Dwight Howard, Orlando
If James is anything but a unanimous selection, it's a mistake. The more interesting question is how everyone slots below him on the ballot. Bryant's performance since Andrew Bynum's injury has helped him make a push, but over the course of the year it's hard to argue he's been more valuable than either Paul or Wade. Not only do both players come out more valuable by WARP, but much more so by net plus-minus, where James (+22.1 points per 100 possessions) and Paul (+21.6) rank one-two in the league, with Wade (+13.7) in seventh. I grant this comparison is unfair to Bryant because of the quality of his supporting cast this season, but this is not inappropriate in a discussion of value. If Bryant wins an MVP award this year, it will be in the NBA Finals (or the All-Star Game, I suppose).
Rookie of the Year
1. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
2. Kevin Love, Minnesota
3. Brook Lopez, New Jersey
The depth of this year's rookie class makes this a wide-open field, and I realize my order looks entirely different than conventional wisdom, which has Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo as the favorites. Neither would be a bad pick; I just happen to like these guys (and maybe even Greg Oden) a little better. Nobody has been more efficient while playing a major role for his team than Westbrook, who has been a revelation for the Thunder. Westbrook's unconventional game makes it easy to pick at his flaws (limited shooting range and questions about his ability to run the point), but he contributes in so many ways that he has still been very valuable. Westbrook is a lot like Rajon Rondo in this regard.
Mayo and Love will be compared for the next decade after being traded for each other on draft night. Mayo's contributions are impossible to miss, while Love's dominant rebounding and all-around game is somewhat more subtle. The numbers suggest Love's mix has been more productive this season. Lopez might be even further under the radar in New Jersey, where he has quietly been a solid starter in the middle for the Nets since day one.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Dwight Howard, Orlando
2. Kevin Garnett, Boston
3. Ben Wallace, Cleveland
In what has been something of a down year in terms of standout performances at the defensive end of the floor, Howard stands well ahead of the pack. Playing alongside an undersized power forward in the poor-rebounding Rashard Lewis, and without any true stoppers on the perimeter, Howard nonetheless anchors a defense that ranks second in the league in Defensive Rating. The only superior defense belongs, of course, to Kevin Garnett and the Boston Celtics. Wallace has enjoyed a resurgent season with the Cavaliers, who (imagine that?) rank just behind the Celtics and the Magic defensively. Wallace's defensive numbers are up, and net defensive plus-minus corroborates his performance; Cleveland allows 9.9 fewer points per 100 possessions with Wallace on the floor, second-best in the league.
Coach of the Year
1. Stan Van Gundy, Orlando
2. Mike Brown, Cleveland
3. Scott Skiles, Milwaukee
Speaking of leading great defenses, both Van Gundy and Brown have done a tremendous job putting their parts together into juggernauts at that end of the floor. Van Gundy had the Magic reaching heights few imagined entering the season; if the team is able to stay in the Eastern Conference race without Jameer Nelson, he'll be a shoo-in for this award. Brown's defenses have always been strong, but this year the Cavaliers have added an offense that is every bit as potent, and Brown's willingness to lean on assistant John Kuester and tweak the way the team uses James has spurred that improvement as much as the addition of Mo Williams. Skiles has pulled off another of the defensive turnarounds that have become his trademark, taking the Bucks from the league's worst defensive team to above-average at that end of the floor this season.
Sixth Man Award
1. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio
2. Andrei Kirilenko, Utah
3. Jason Terry, Dallas
At this point, only a stunning reversal in Gregg Popovich's philosophy of bringing Ginobili off the bench will end the Argentinean guard's stranglehold on this award. Even though he missed time early in the season, Ginobili leads the league with 5.8 WARP off the bench. His two closest competitors, Kirilenko and Terry, are both currently sidelined by injuries of their own, making the task of overtaking Ginobili all the more daunting. Kirilenko has quietly been terrific for the Jazz, and his absence has been arguably more painful to the team than Carlos Boozer's injury. On a per-minute basis, Travis Ariza has been as productive as almost any reserve, but the Lakers' depth has limited his playing time.
Most Improved Player
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
2. Rodney Stuckey, Detroit
3. Devin Harris, New Jersey
There's a certain school of thought that the Most Improved Player award should never go to a second-year player because sophomores are supposed to improve. Fair, but we should still recognize young players who put in the work to develop their games above and beyond the improvement that comes with age and experience. Durant and Stuckey both fall into that category. Durant has evolved from an inefficient scorer to a lethal one who is quickly rising up the WARP leaderboard, while Stuckey has established himself as the Pistons' future at the point and played beyond his years. Meanwhile, the more veteran Harris has taken his game to new heights during his first full season with the Nets, emerging as an All-Star point guard.
Executive of the Year Award
1. Mark Warkentien, Denver
Technically, I believe this award (voted on by the executives themselves for The Sporting News) offers a single vote. That's OK by me, because to be completely honest I can't think of a lot of front offices worth honoring. That's not to say GMs have done poorly around the league; it's just that no one really seems to stand out. Kevin Pritchard has built a promising young squad in Portland, but most of that work was done in years past. The same goes for Mitch Kupchak with the Lakers. Both would have been deserving choices last year, when Danny Ainge blew the field away by building a championship team overnight.
Looking strictly at the past offseason, the clear choice in my mind is Warkentien and company in Denver. Despite a mandate to shed payroll, the Nuggets have gone from fighting for a playoff spot to favorites to win the Northwest Division and a potential top-two seed. The decision to shed Marcus Camby has worked out, with Nenê capably stepping into the vacated spot in the starting lineup. Dealing Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups has paid huge dividends at both ends of the floor. Digging deeper, Chris Andersen has been a nice pickup to offer depth behind Nenê and Denver was able to re-sign J.R. Smith at a reasonable price over the offseason. Put it all together and the Nuggets front office has outmaneuvered the rest of the league over the last eight months.
All-NBA First Team
G - Chris Paul, New Orleans
G - Dwyane Wade, Miami
C - Dwight Howard, Orlando
F - Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
F - LeBron James, Cleveland
The NBA allows some fuzziness on positions, so with apologies to Tim Duncan (really playing center himself anyway), I'll stretch and put Bryant at forward to avoid having to decide between him and Wade for a spot at guard.
All-NBA Second Team
G - Brandon Roy, Portland
G - Chauncey Billups, Denver
C - Tim Duncan, San Antonio
F - Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers
F - Kevin Garnett, Boston
One of the more bizarre All-Star selection storylines was the notion that Gasol got in solely on the strength of the Lakers' success. Hopefully his five straight double-doubles after Bynum's injury--including an impressive 24-point, 14-rebound performance in the Finals rematch in Boston--have put an end to that talk.
All-NBA Third Team
G - Devin Harris, New Jersey
G - Jameer Nelson, Orlando
C - Yao Ming, Houston
F - Chris Bosh, Toronto
F - Danny Granger, Indiana
This group ended up slanting heavily toward young players from the Eastern Conference. Nelson obviously has no chance of making an All-NBA team after his shoulder injury, so I'm happy to be able to throw him a little bit of love here. Granger's spot at forward also is very much open to debate at this point.
All-Defensive First Team
G - Rajon Rondo, Boston
G - Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia
C - Dwight Howard, Orlando
F - Kevin Garnett, Boston
F - Andrei Kirilenko, Utah
One storyline of the 2008-09 season that has flown under the radar: What happened to all the perimeter stoppers? Bruce Bowen is seeing spot minutes in San Antonio, while Raja Bell too seems to have lost a step. Ron Artest and Shane Battier in Houston have been battling injuries, Tayshaun Prince has been unable to stop the Pistons from sliding defensively...I could go on. I eventually went with Iguodala at shooting guard largely on the strength of the league's third-best net defensive plus-minus rating. Kirilenko gets the nod at forward over Wallace because I prefer not to put two power forwards on the squad. The two forward positions are simply too different defensively.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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