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Bon appétit!
ACC: If Your D is Questionable, Pray You Get Florida State in Your Pod
Through games of February 16, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession
Opp. PPP: opponent points per possession
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. North Carolina 75.6 1.15 1.00 +0.15
2. Duke 68.7 1.04 0.93 +0.11
3. Clemson 70.1 1.06 1.00 +0.06
4. Wake Forest 74.8 1.04 0.99 +0.05
5. Florida St. 69.9 0.97 0.96 +0.01
6. Virginia Tech 68.6 1.07 1.08 -0.01
7. BC 68.2 1.10 1.11 -0.01
8. Miami 66.8 1.06 1.08 -0.02
9. NC State 68.4 1.03 1.08 -0.05
10. Maryland 70.4 0.98 1.04 -0.06
11. Georgia Tech 72.6 0.89 0.98 -0.09
12. Virginia 70.7 0.95 1.09 -0.14
Carolina is Carolina, Duke is in free fall, Wake Forest plays to the level of its opponent (or did until Saturday), yadda, yadda. You've heard all that before--let's talk about Florida State! The Seminoles are the Minnesota of the ACC: getting some pretty respectable seeds in a lot of brackets right now, but also on track to have the weakest offense of any at-large team. (Unless, of course, the Gophers wrest that title away from the 'Noles.) Stay tuned.
Big East: How Many Bids Do You See Here? (cont.)
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Connecticut 66.7 1.10 0.93 +0.17
2. Pitt 65.8 1.18 1.01 +0.17
3. Marquette 69.0 1.14 1.00 +0.14
4. Louisville 68.6 1.02 0.90 +0.12
5. Villanova 72.4 1.09 1.02 +0.07
6. West Virginia 67.7 1.04 0.98 +0.06
7. Syracuse 71.7 1.07 1.05 +0.02
8. Providence 72.9 1.06 1.06 0.00
9. Notre Dame 69.0 1.09 1.10 -0.01
10. Georgetown 64.7 1.05 1.09 -0.04
11. Cincinnati 64.3 1.04 1.09 -0.05
12. Seton Hall 68.0 1.05 1.11 -0.06
13. S. Florida 63.3 0.95 1.06 -0.11
14. Rutgers 66.9 0.94 1.08 -0.14
15. St. John's 66.8 0.94 1.08 -0.14
16. DePaul 65.9 0.92 1.18 -0.26
As recently as Friday night's Villanova/West Virginia game, I heard announcers wondering aloud if the Big East would get ten bids. (Seriously. The word "ten" passed their lips.) Well, right now I'm seeing seven. More importantly, so does Joe Lunardi.
Big Ten: Locked in at Six?
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Michigan St. 63.1 1.11 0.94 +0.17
2. Wisconsin 58.2 1.08 1.00 +0.08
3. Illinois 61.0 1.00 0.93 +0.07
4. Purdue 62.4 1.00 0.94 +0.06
5. Ohio St. 63.1 1.05 1.01 +0.04
6. Minnesota 63.4 0.98 0.98 0.00
7. Penn St. 61.2 1.01 1.05 -0.04
8. Michigan 61.0 0.98 1.02 -0.04
8. Northwestern 61.0 1.02 1.08 -0.06
10. Iowa 57.4 0.98 1.09 -0.11
11. Indiana 64.3 0.92 1.10 -0.18
Penn State's defense has improved dramatically this year, as evidenced by the fact it's mid-February and here I am weighing their tournament chances. That being said, there appears to be a rather neat separation between the Big Ten's top six teams and the next three: the Nittany Lions, Michigan and Northwestern. We'll see if that separation is still intact in three weeks.
Big 12: Missouri Says, "Show Me! (A Clear Top Three!)"
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Oklahoma 68.6 1.15 0.99 +0.16
2. Kansas 68.7 1.09 0.93 +0.16
3. Missouri 73.5 1.08 0.92 +0.16
4. Texas 67.0 1.07 1.02 +0.05
5. Nebraska 63.7 0.96 0.98 -0.02
6. Texas A&M 65.2 1.05 1.07 -0.02
7. Kansas St. 67.7 1.02 1.05 -0.03
8. Oklahoma St. 73.1 1.05 1.09 -0.04
9. Baylor 69.6 1.06 1.12 -0.06
10. Iowa St. 65.7 0.94 1.06 -0.12
11. Texas Tech 72.0 0.98 1.10 -0.12
12. Colorado 63.1 0.94 1.12 -0.18
Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri continue to look well nigh indistinguishable against the rest of the Big 12: the Sooners are doing it with offense; the Jayhawks and the Tigers are getting it done with D. I, for one, am looking forward to March 4, when Oklahoma visits Missouri.
Pac-10: Rampant Egalitarianism on the Left Coast
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. UCLA 63.8 1.15 1.03 +0.12
2. Washington 71.2 1.13 1.02 +0.11
3. Arizona St. 58.1 1.11 1.01 +0.10
4. Cal 64.7 1.09 1.05 +0.04
5. Arizona 63.8 1.08 1.06 +0.02
6. USC 62.1 1.03 1.03 0.00
7. Washington St. 56.4 1.01 1.02 -0.01
8. Stanford 66.5 1.04 1.09 -0.05
9. Oregon St. 57.3 0.95 1.08 -0.13
10. Oregon 65.5 0.95 1.17 -0.22
Eight days ago I proclaimed UCLA underrated and said that their offense is superb. Well, it is. Their defense, though, had a really bad trip to the state of Arizona this past weekend. In fact, at times it appeared the D didn't make the trip at all. Most peculiar from a Ben Howland team. Of course a lot of that had to do with superb performances by Arizona State and, especially, Arizona. The Wildcats look like they'll keep their tournament streak alive (24 consecutive appearances and counting), after all. That's good news for the Pac-10, which has watched USC simultaneously play itself into serious tournament jeopardy.
Special note for devotees of slow-paced hoops: Pullman, Washington is the place you ought to be. Washington State is averaging less than 55 possessions per 40 minutes over their last four games.
SEC: Yes, Every Team Plays the No-Respect Card, but LSU Actually Has a Point (cont.)
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. LSU 70.7 1.09 0.92 +0.17
2. Kentucky 70.2 1.03 0.93 +0.10
3. Tennessee 69.6 1.10 1.00 +0.10
4. Florida 71.8 1.09 1.01 +0.08
5. South Carolina 75.8 1.03 0.99 +0.04
6. Auburn 70.2 1.03 1.01 +0.02
7. Mississippi St. 69.9 1.03 1.01 +0.02
8. Ole Miss 68.1 1.02 1.07 -0.05
9. Vanderbilt 67.9 0.98 1.06 -0.08
10. Alabama 70.8 0.99 1.06 -0.07
11. Arkansas 70.1 0.95 1.10 -0.15
12. Georgia 70.5 0.87 1.07 -0.20
A week from today LSU hosts Florida; the following Saturday they visit Kentucky. Assuming the Tigers take care of business before then (road game at Arkansas, then a home game against quietly surprising Auburn), those two games will be huge in sorting out this year's SEC.
Speaking of quiet surprises, Auburn took care of Mississippi State with notable ease at home on Saturday. Jeff Lebo's team has improved greatly on D since last year. (They had room to.) The January 31 loss at home to Vanderbilt, however, was unfortunate.
Conference USA: Why, Look at That--Memphis is Good!
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Memphis 65.0 1.16 0.89 +0.27
2. Houston 70.2 1.10 0.98 +0.12
3. UAB 66.1 1.07 0.98 +0.09
4. Tulsa 64.6 1.03 0.97 +0.06
5. UTEP 71.9 1.05 1.01 +0.04
6. UCF 65.4 1.09 1.05 +0.04
7. Tulane 65.6 0.98 1.04 -0.06
8. E. Carolina 65.6 1.11 1.18 -0.07
9. Marshall 65.0 1.00 1.11 -0.11
10. Southern Miss 64.1 1.04 1.16 -0.12
11. Rice 65.7 0.97 1.09 -0.12
12. SMU 64.8 0.93 1.06 -0.13
Looking at the numbers for a conference in which one team has won 52 consecutive league games is a stark departure from what we're used to here at Conference Check. For one thing, the other 11 teams sort themselves out in no small measure according to how often they've played Memphis so far: once (e.g., Houston, UAB) or twice (Tulsa). Pity Tulane. The Green Wave is already buried in the middle of the pack and they haven't even played the Tigers yet.
For the record, last year's Final Four team outscored C-USA opponents by 0.29 points per trip. John Calipari's 2009 team certainly appears to be rounding into form.
Mountain West: Chaos is Good
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. New Mexico 63.6 1.14 0.96 +0.18
2. BYU 68.9 1.12 0.97 +0.15
3. Utah 64.5 1.12 0.99 +0.13
4. San Diego St. 64.2 1.08 0.95 +0.13
5. UNLV 65.3 1.08 0.98 +0.10
6. TCU 63.3 0.99 1.08 -0.09
7. Wyoming 66.4 1.03 1.17 -0.14
8. Colorado St. 66.6 0.98 1.16 -0.18
9. Air Force 57.7 0.87 1.16 -0.29
For my money, the Mountain West will be far and away the most fun to watch of any conference from now to Selection Sunday. There are five teams of more or less comparable caliber, whether viewed by my lights or even through the lens of those old-fashioned relics known as "the standings." I have no idea what the committee will do when confronted with this situation.
As I've noted before, New Mexico is interesting because they were thoroughly unimpressive until the ball went up in the first game of MWC play. Since then they've been the best team in the league. Tonight they play at BYU, and of course if they win it would be huge for their tournament hopes. A much more likely scenario, however, is that they lose a close game in Provo. If so, they'll then want to run the table. They very well could, with their only remaining road games being at Colorado State and Wyoming.
Missouri Valley: Creighton's Current Performance Exceeds their Timing
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. N. Iowa 61.5 1.11 0.99 +0.12
2. Creighton 65.8 1.10 1.00 +0.10
3. Illinois St. 62.5 1.05 0.96 +0.09
4. Bradley 62.0 1.04 1.02 +0.02
5. Evansville 64.7 0.95 0.99 -0.04
6. S. Illinois 62.5 0.99 1.03 -0.04
7. Wichita St. 61.8 0.97 1.02 -0.05
8. Drake 62.7 0.99 1.04 -0.05
9. Indiana St. 63.1 0.96 1.04 -0.08
10. Missouri St. 62.4 0.97 1.06 -0.09
Creighton has been dominant (to the tune of a +0.22 efficiency margin) during a six-game winning streak that includes a victory at Northern Iowa. If they'd started this last-lap kick a smidge earlier, it might have been enough for them to secure an at-large bid. As it is, the Valley is almost certainly fated to be a one-bid league. If the Bluejays win the MVC tournament and get that bid, opponents beware. This team is better than they looked in January.
John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.
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