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There are just 12 days left before Selection Sunday, and you should know that the method the selection committee will use to select and seed the field of 65 teams has nothing to do with what you see here. The committee's evaluation will be, for lack of a better term, digital: you either won a game or you lost it. Home or away. Conference or non-conference. The committee slices and dices wins and losses a lot of different ways, but when it comes down to it, that's all they look at: wins and losses.
You might use that approach too if you had to evaluate and seed dozens of teams. The much more analog measure of per-possession performance used here, then, won't tell you who's going to get in. What it can help you with, though, is figuring out how confident you should be about that team when it's time to fill out your bracket in a couple weeks.
ACC: North Carolina's the Same as Last Year--Really Good
Through games of March 2, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession
Opp. PPP: opponent points per possession
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. North Carolina 75.3 1.16 1.01 +0.15
2. Duke 68.9 1.08 0.96 +0.12
3. Clemson 70.1 1.08 1.01 +0.07
4. Wake Forest 74.4 1.06 1.01 +0.05
5. Florida St. 69.0 1.00 0.98 +0.02
6. Miami 65.9 1.06 1.07 -0.01
7. BC 67.3 1.09 1.11 -0.02
8. Virginia Tech 68.4 1.05 1.08 -0.03
9. NC State 68.2 1.04 1.10 -0.06
10. Maryland 69.5 1.00 1.07 -0.07
11. Virginia 69.3 0.96 1.06 -0.10
12. Georgia Tech 73.4 0.90 1.03 -0.13
The early-season excitement surrounding North Carolina was based on two facts. First, the Tar Heels were a Final Four team last year. Second, everyone was back this year. Of course, "everyone" has turned out not to include Marcus Ginyard. Maybe Ginyard's absence explains, in part, why the Tar Heels have "merely" stayed pretty much where they were last year: at a really high level.
Tar Heels Then and Now
Conference games only, 2009 figures through games of March 2
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
2008 74.7 1.13 0.99 +0.14
2009 75.3 1.16 1.01 +0.15
The improved accuracy that ACC opponents are showing on their threes is suggestive of a D that misses Ginyard. The dip in defensive rebounding, however, is more mysterious. In any event, an improved offense--due mostly to a slight decrease in turnovers--has picked up this slack and kept UNC in the land of the solid one-seeds.
Big East: Can Cincinnati Still Get a Bid?
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Connecticut 66.4 1.11 0.94 +0.17
2. Pitt 67.0 1.16 1.01 +0.15
3. Louisville 67.7 1.06 0.92 +0.14
4. Marquette 69.3 1.12 1.01 +0.11
5. West Virginia 66.4 1.05 0.97 +0.08
6. Villanova 71.5 1.09 1.01 +0.08
7. Syracuse 71.9 1.10 1.04 +0.06
8. Providence 72.7 1.07 1.08 -0.01
9. Notre Dame 68.8 1.08 1.10 -0.02
10. Georgetown 64.6 1.03 1.06 -0.03
11. Seton Hall 68.9 1.04 1.09 -0.05
12. Cincinnati 64.1 1.03 1.10 -0.07
13. St. John's 66.6 0.96 1.08 -0.12
14. Rutgers 67.6 0.94 1.08 -0.14
15. S. Florida 62.5 0.92 1.07 -0.15
16. DePaul 66.0 0.93 1.18 -0.25
Keep an eye on the Bearcats. ESPN's Joe Lunardi currently has Mick Cronin's team listed as a member of the "next four out" (as opposed to the "first four out"). More to the point, Cincinnati has a relatively friendly remaining schedule, with a road game at South Florida and a home game against Seton Hall. Those games could well improve the numbers you see here (though of course not dramatically so). In short, it's March 3 and by tempo-free lights the Bearcats rank as a solid 12 in a 16-team league, yet it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could go dancing. Stay tuned.
Big Ten: Wisconsin Emphasizes...Offense?
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Michigan St. 63.6 1.07 0.94 +0.13
2. Purdue 63.9 1.03 0.94 +0.09
3. Wisconsin 58.0 1.07 1.00 +0.07
4. Illinois 61.1 0.98 0.92 +0.06
5. Ohio St. 61.7 1.07 1.06 +0.01
6. Minnesota 63.2 0.97 0.97 0.00
7. Michigan 61.3 1.00 1.03 -0.03
8. Penn St. 60.0 1.00 1.04 -0.04
9. Northwestern 60.3 1.03 1.07 -0.04
10. Iowa 57.2 0.98 1.07 -0.09
11. Indiana 63.5 0.93 1.11 -0.18
Behold the new-look Badgers. Did you ever think you'd see the day when a Bo Ryan defense could be described as only "slightly above average"? Today is that day. Wisconsin's conference opponents have feasted in the paint this season and made more than half of their twos. Only the standard-issue excellence that we always see in Madison on the defensive glass has kept this D from falling off even further. The good news is that this offense is second only to Michigan State's, thanks mainly to the fact that the Badgers have given the ball away on less than 16 percent of their possessions.
Big 12: The Most Important Game of the Year, Oklahoma vs. Missouri
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. Kansas 69.3 1.10 0.92 +0.18
2. Missouri 73.1 1.07 0.94 +0.13
3. Oklahoma 68.8 1.14 1.01 +0.13
4. Texas 67.4 1.07 1.01 +0.06
5. Oklahoma St. 71.9 1.08 1.06 +0.02
6. Texas A&M 65.5 1.07 1.05 +0.02
7. Kansas St. 67.4 1.02 1.05 -0.03
8. Nebraska 62.8 0.95 0.99 -0.04
9. Baylor 68.7 1.05 1.11 -0.06
10. Iowa St. 65.5 0.94 1.05 -0.11
11. Texas Tech 71.8 1.00 1.12 -0.12
12. Colorado 62.3 0.92 1.11 -0.19
By "most important" I mean "I really want to see the game tomorrow night." It's March and I feel like I still haven't seen Oklahoma play a quality opponent when the Sooners have been fully-staffed, shall we say. (How is that possible?) Jeff Capel's team is still shown in most brackets as a one-seed and they have the record to match, sure. I just want to see them play, with Blake Griffin in the lineup on the road against an opponent that does not fear them. Missouri does not fear them.
Pac-10: Washington State's (Very Slow) Big Push
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. UCLA 64.6 1.15 1.05 +0.10
2. Washington 70.9 1.11 1.01 +0.10
3. Arizona St. 58.4 1.09 1.00 +0.09
4. Cal 64.4 1.08 1.05 +0.03
5. Washington St. 57.0 1.02 1.02 0.00
6. Arizona 64.1 1.07 1.07 0.00
7. USC 61.8 1.03 1.04 -0.01
8. Stanford 65.1 1.04 1.10 -0.06
9. Oregon St. 58.1 0.97 1.07 -0.10
10. Oregon 65.3 0.97 1.15 -0.18
The shot that Washington State's Taylor Rochestie made to beat Arizona State in overtime in Pullman on Saturday was remarkable. I've seen estimates ranging up to 27 feet, but whatever the exact distance may have been it was clearly from way downtown. Still another remarkable thing about that shot is that it had been preceded by only just possessions--in a game, mind you, that went an extra five minutes. The Cougars are a really slow-paced team but if it works, keep doing it. In their last three games, WSU has wins against UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State. They've been getting it done with offense, and their final game is at Washington. If the Cougars can somehow pull off the upset in Seattle, they'll finish 9-9. Worthy of bubble talk? Alas, not likely, due to a high RPI (87).
SEC: Auburn? Yes, Auburn.
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. LSU 69.9 1.10 0.96 +0.14
2. Florida 70.3 1.12 1.04 +0.08
3. Kentucky 69.0 1.03 0.97 +0.06
4. Auburn 69.9 1.04 0.99 +0.05
5. Tennessee 68.5 1.10 1.05 +0.05
6. South Carolina 75.4 1.02 1.00 +0.02
7. Alabama 70.3 1.04 1.05 -0.01
8. Mississippi St. 70.0 1.01 1.03 -0.02
9. Ole Miss 68.3 1.02 1.06 -0.04
10. Vanderbilt 68.5 1.01 1.05 -0.04
11. Arkansas 70.6 0.97 1.08 -0.11
12. Georgia 69.9 0.87 1.06 -0.19
I know we writers are contractually prohibited from talking about any SEC West team this year besides LSU (and even the talk of Trent Johnson's team started up only in the last seven days), but I'm here to break that rule and talk about Auburn. Admit it: you can't name a single Auburn player this year, can you? I'll cover for you. DeWayne Reed, Korvotney Barber, Tay Waller and company have played oddly good defense this year. I say "oddly" because this is a team that last year allowed conference opponents to score 1.14 points per trip. How times have changed at Beard-Eaves Coliseum. Impress your friends: Auburn is good. The Tigers will have the perfect opportunity to prove it Saturday when they host LSU for their season finale, though first they have to face improving Alabama on the road tonight.
Mountain West: The NCAA's Preferred Source of Non-"Major" At-Large Bids (cont.)
Opp.
Pace PPP PPP EM
1. New Mexico 64.1 1.12 0.96 +0.16
2. BYU 68.5 1.10 0.95 +0.15
3. Utah 64.6 1.10 0.99 +0.11
4. San Diego St. 63.6 1.05 0.99 +0.06
5. UNLV 66.4 1.05 0.99 +0.06
6. Wyoming 66.9 1.04 1.11 -0.07
7. TCU 64.0 0.99 1.06 -0.07
8. Colorado St. 65.9 1.01 1.15 -0.14
9. Air Force 58.0 0.89 1.15 -0.26
New Mexico continues their quixotic ways, nowhere to be seen in any brackets yet clinging to their tempo-free status as the Mountain West's best team. (Not that the Lobos looked the part Saturday night, struggling to beat Colorado State in double-overtime in Fort Collins.) That status will be up for grabs tonight when league-leading Utah visits Albuquerque. The Utes are smarting from a 13-point loss at BYU, while New Mexico is just trying to keep hope alive. It's March, and the games keep getting bigger.
John Gasaway is an author of Basketball Prospectus.
You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.
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