January 20, 2010
Prospectus Hoops List
Week ending Jan. 17, 2010

by Bradford Doolittle

There has been some movement on the Prospectus Hoops List this week, so read on and address direct your complaints to the contact options listed below. Next week, we'll be sure to whine about the All-Star selections. I mean, if we're electing injured players, why not Yao Ming? How about Blake Griffin? Come on, people.

(Statistics through Jan. 17)

Rank. (Last week) Team (Power rating / Championship probability) [Win pace / Pythagorean win pace / Preseason projecion ]

1. (1) Los Angeles Lakers (59.9 / 30.8%) [ 63 / 59 / 53 ]
Rankings: NET: 3; OFF: 12; DEF: 2; PACE: 7

The Lakers are 32-9 and have a five-game lead atop the Western Conference, so they are well positioned for their longest road trip of the season, an eight-game skein that begins Thursday in Cleveland. Kobe vs. LeBron. NBA Finals preview. You name it, this matchup has it. The trip ends with stops in Boston and Memphis. In between, however, the Lakers play the Knicks, Raptors, Wizards, Pacers and Sixers. Winning five straight on the road in the NBA is tough no matter who you play, but anyone waiting for a prolonged Lakers skid is going to be disappointed. When the road trip is finished, L.A. will have 15 home games and 18 road games left this season. During that time, Phil Jackson's top task will be to get Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum functioning as a high-octane duo in the post. The Lakers don't necessarily need them to be that to win the title, but it can't hurt to reduce the margin of error. Even though it now seems like Gasol has been in L.A. for a long time, he and Bynum have played just 69 regular season games together, plus the 23 games in the playoffs last season in which Bynum didn't play starter's minutes.

2. (2) Cleveland Cavaliers (58.5 / 25.0%) [ 60 / 58 / 54 ]
Rankings: NET: 2; OFF: 4; DEF: 5; PACE: 28

The Cavaliers have a plethora of options at the big positions, including Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao. Darnell Jackson is also on the roster and the big-man contingent will soon be joined by rehabbing former Celtic Leon Powe. How does Mike Brown sort them all out? I was looking at the lineup data from BasketballValue.com and couldn't help but notice that the Cavaliers' two most-frequent lineups have both been outscored on the season. Since Cleveland is No. 2 on our Hoops List and third in the league in raw point differential, this strikes me as fairly remarkable. Both of those lineups include O'Neal. The Cavs' next six most-common lineups have all outscored the competition. O'Neal is not a part of any of them. The Cavs are over 21 points per 100 possessions better with Varejao on the floor than off it; they are over 10 points worse with Shaq on the floor. And this team is trying to trade Ilgauskas?

3. (4) Atlanta Hawks (56.7 / 15.4%) [ 54 / 56 / 30 ]
Rankings: NET: 6; OFF: 2; DEF: 12; PACE: 23

The data used to compile the Hoops List each week is cut off after Sunday's games, so the Hawks' home loss to the Thunder on Monday is not included here. Before that game, the Hawks' leap into the third spot on the list had championship-scrambling ramifications. Last week, Atlanta had the fourth-highest championship probability at 7.4 percent, well behind third place Boston's 17.1 percent. By passing the Celtics and strenghtening its POW, Atlanta jumped to this week's 15.4 percent mark. The lesson here is that the pecking order established during the NBA's regular season is meaningful and anyone who poo-poos all that happens before the playoffs should be sealed in a sound-proof room and forced to listen to a never-ending loop of a Coldplay/Dave Matthews medley. The Hawks can't afford to be losing at home, by the way, with road tests coming up at Houston, San Antonio, Orlando and Oklahoma City.

4. (3) Boston Celtics (54.4 / 6.9%) [ 58 / 59 / 56 ]
Rankings: NET: 1; OFF: 8; DEF: 1; PACE: 22

The injuries have caught up to the Celtics, who have lost four of six games and their last three at the neo-Garden. The recent struggles of the Celtics and the Magic suddenly make the Hawks look like a viable possibility for the two-seed in the East. That would be bad news for a Boston squad that has lost all three of its games against Atlanta this season. The missing bodies are beginning to return and if--a big if--Kevin Garnett in particular can stay in the lineup, Boston should be fine. Still, lest we forget that Boston has played the league's easiest schedule to date. The docket is not as friendly from here on out. So despite Doc Rivers' presumed preference for cruising with a rested roster into the playoffs, he may not have that luxury. The Hawks, Celtics and Magic all play each other before the end of the month and it'll be interesting to see if one of the three emerges as Cleveland's primary challenger.

5. (7) Orlando Magic (52.7 / 4.2%) [ 53 / 54 / 49 ]
Rankings: NET: 5; OFF: 9; DEF: 6; PACE: 15

The free-falling Magic have lost seven of nine and have dropped behind Atlanta in the Southeast Division. If Stan Van Gundy doesn't right the ship soon, the Bobcats are going to be on his team's tail. I watched Orlando's nationally-televised loss in Portland with Magic blogger Eddy Rivera and it was easy to pick up on his frustration. Just as it has seemed to me when I watched Orlando in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, Rivera seemed to feel that "something just isn't right." Not to beat a dead horse, but I just keep coming back to the presence of Vince Carter. Forget about Carter's numbers for a moment. Forget about usage rates and offensive efficiency, WARP, defensive metrics. Forget all that. (But only for a second!) Last season, my system pegged Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis as the 6th and 19th most valuable players in the league, respectively. This season, Howard is taking 3.2 fewer shots per game and has 20 games in which he's gotten fewer than 10 shots. And the increasingly disgruntled Lewis is averaging his fewest shots per game in nine years. Indeed, something isn't right.

6. (6) Dallas Mavericks (52.1 / 3.5%) [ 53 / 47 / 50 ]
Rankings: NET: 9; OFF: 11; DEF: 9; PACE: 19

The Mavericks' free throw percentage of .800 leads the league and has a significant effect on their offensive efficiency, even though Dallas is very much a jump-shooting team. In just one example, the Clippers have attempted 20 more free throws than the Mavericks this season, but the Mavs have outscored L.A. by 48 points at the charity stripe. It's always tempting to point to free throw accuracy as being a key component of success in close games, but in fact the correlation isn't that high. The Mavericks' 11-4 mark in games decided by five points or less is exceptional, but in those 11 close wins, Dallas shot under 80 percent from the line in five of them. Making your clutch free throws helps, but it isn't everything. If you're someone (such as me) who expect the Mavericks' pace to slacken a bit as the season goes along, Dallas' performance in close games could be an area to watch.

7. (10) Denver Nuggets (51.4 / 4.0%) [ 53 / 54 / 43 ]
Rankings: NET: 7; OFF: 3; DEF: 17; PACE: 5

One of the more under-reported aspects of the Nuggets' rise the last two seasons is Nenê's rise from a very good center to one of All-Star caliber. His improvement has been subtle. Nenê has become more efficient the last couple of seasons despite remaining at about the same level of usage. As the talent around him has improved, he's been less prone to attempt things beyond his ability and his turnover rate has declined precipitously. Nenê remains proficient at setting up plays for others in an inside-out fashion but isn't asked to do that as often as he once was in the Nuggets' scheme. Instead, he has become one of the league's best pick-and-roll partners because of his quickness down the lane and explosiveness at the rim. Nenê teams with Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billips to give the Nuggets one of the best core trios in the NBA.

8. (9) San Antonio Spurs (50.7 / 2.9%) [ 50 / 56 / 57 ]
Rankings: NET: 4; OFF: 7; DEF: 7; PACE: 24

We're not going to use the Spurs' comment to rave about DeJuan Blair every week, but it's tough to overlook him after a week in which he posted points/rebound totals of 28/21, 11/16, 8/8 and 8/13. The Spurs came through Chicago early in the season, in their second game and the Bulls' first. Back then, Blair was coming off an excellent showing in his first NBA game, but got just over 10 minutes and did very little against the Bulls. I sat with Blair in the locker room after the game and he was very quiet. I'd heard him being interviewed before the game and the line of questioning was always related to how he felt as he slipped down the board on draft night. That in fact was the story I wanted to do about him. I asked him if he was at the point where he didn't want to talk about draft night any more. He nodded, rose, and went into the training room. At this point, I think we can start to forget about draft night and just marvel at a unique and special player.

9. (5) Phoenix Suns (50.5 / 2.8%) [ 48 / 46 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 10; OFF: 1; DEF: 28; PACE: 3

The Suns have become the anti-Grizzlies. After starting 10-2 this season, Phoenix has now gone 14-16 after losing to Memphis on Monday. The problem is defense. The Suns (28th in Defensive Rating) just don't get enough stops. So what does Alvin Gentry do? He plays lineup juggling! Robin Lopez started in place of Channing Frye at center, while Leandro Barbosa took the spot of two-guard Jason Richardson. How these moves were supposed to bolster the defense is unclear, but perhaps Gentry is unaware that the defense is the problem. As it is, the Suns' season in unraveling fast and the Amare Stoudemire trade rumors are about to kick into high gear.

10. (13) Utah Jazz (50.3 / 1.9%) [ 46 / 50 / 53 ]
Rankings: NET: 12; OFF: 13; DEF: 11; PACE: 14

The Jazz made a bit of a statement with a four-game winning streak that began with an impressive win at Dallas. Utah faces a big test tonight when they travel to San Antonio. The Jazz beat the Spurs on the road Nov. 19, the first time it has won in San Antonio since Ron Boone had an afro. (Not really, and I'm shouldn't assume Booner had an afro just because he played in the ABA, but it was a really long time since the Jazz beat the Spurs on the road, which is the point here.) The star of the Jazz streak was rookie point guard Sundiata Gaines, who has emerged as the league's feel-good story of the season. First he warmed our hearts by having his call-up from the D-League caught on video, then he nailed his first career three-pointer at the buzzer to beat LeBron James' Cavaliers. In between these high points, Gaines has held his own. He hasn't been quite as good overall as Eric Maynor but he does give the Jazz a different look when he's on the floor as he's more of a pure scorer than Maynor. Maynor, however, was probably a better fit for Jerry Sloan's timeworn system. In the end, though, it probably won't matter. When Deron Williams is healthy, Gaines will be no better than third on the depth chart and his status as a 10-day contract player is tenuous.

11. (11) Portland Trail Blazers (49.7 / 1.7%) [ 50 / 51 / 50 ]
Rankings: NET: 8; OFF: 6; DEF: 14; PACE: 30

The up-and-down ways of the battered Trail Blazers continue. Portland handled Orlando last Friday, but then flew across the country to lose to the Wizards three days later. The win over the Magic was particularly enthralling as it came with Brandon Roy watching from the bench in street clothes. Roy also missed the game in Washington as he waits out a healing hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Andre Miller has stepped up and earned some of that big contract he signed over the summer. That Portland is eight games over .500 at this point is really a testament to the depth that Kevin Pritchard assembled on this roster. I mentioned in the Clippers' comment that Marcus Camby could be a good fit in Portland but that of course depends on what the Blazers would have to give up. Miller would seem to be the best candidate to go, but I don't think even the Clippers would trade for a guard that wouldn't start and would eat up much of their precious cap space next summer

12. (12) Oklahoma City Thunder (48.2 / 0.4%) [ 45 / 48 / 32 ]
Rankings: NET: 11; OFF: 20; DEF: 4; PACE: 16

For over a year, we've talked about the dynamic developing core trio of the Thunder, referring to Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and, of course, Kevin Durant. However--and it's tough to go negative when writing about Oklahoma City--Westbrook and Durant have left Green behind to the extent that we may have to start looking at James Harden as that all-important third wheel. Green is still not as efficient on offense as his athletic ability suggests he should be. His offensive strengths are beating his man down the floor in transition and diving to the hoop along the baseline. Too often, he is caught standing, reduced to a spot-up shooter in half-court sets which is not his strength. On defense, there really hasn't been much to recommend Green, who rates as a -3 defender. Harden, on the other hand, is the only OKC player besides Westbrook and Durant to post a postive Statistical Plus-Minus figure.

13. (8) Houston Rockets (47.6 / 0.0%) [ 45 / 41 / 50 ]
Rankings: NET: 15; OFF: 18; DEF: 15; PACE: 12

The Rockets are struggling, having lost five of their last seven games. The culprit has been a defense that has been springing leaks. If you divide this season into quadrants, the Rockets' Defensive Rating has gone from 107 to 110 to 108 to nearly 115 in the respective quadrants. Houston has seven of its next eight at home, which should aid them in plugging up those leaks.

14. (14) Miami Heat (42.6 / 0.1%) [ 42 / 39 / 44 ]
Rankings: NET: 14; OFF: 14; DEF: 13; PACE: 26

LINEUP         MIN   ORTG   DRTG   EMRG
Both         908.5  111.8  106.4   +5.4
Wade only    568.8  108.7  104.3   +4.5
Neither       70.7  103.3  115.9  -12.6
Beasley only 377.0   93.7  108.7  -15.0

What we learn here is that the Heat are at their best when Beasley and Wade are both on the floor. Most important for Miami is--brace yourself--having Wade on the floor, no matter who is with him. Having Beasley on the floor without Wade, however, doesn't look like such a good idea.

15. (16) Memphis Grizzlies (42.5 / 0.0%) [ 44 / 40 / 30 ]
Rankings: NET: 16; OFF: 10; DEF: 23; PACE: 8

The Grizzlies are demonstrating why using a team's percentage of assisted field goals as a symptom of offensive efficiency (or lack thereof) is not always a good idea. Memphis is again the league's worst passing team, yet rank a solid 10th in offensive efficiency. Lionel Hollins' crew is also evidence that the old fashioned dual post model can still work in today's NBA. In both trend-bucking examples, the explanation can be traced back to offensive rebounding, the mastery of which can mask all sorts of ugliness. Not only do the Grizzlies lead the league in offensive rebound percentage, but their .331 figure (through Sunday) is uniquely excellent by contemporary standards. If you count this season as the last of the 00s, which I do, then Memphis' current offensive rebound rate has been surpassed by only five of 296 teams. Three of those teams, by the way, were the Danny Fortson-fueled Golden State teams from early in the decade. My, how times have changed.

16. (18) Charlotte Bobcats (42.3 / 0.3%) [ 41 / 44 / 45 ]
Rankings: NET: 13; OFF: 25; DEF: 3; PACE: 27

This is it, Bobcats fans, this is your Mt. McKinley. Charlotte has won five straight and eight of nine and, at 20-19, Larry Brown's plucky bunch is over .500 at the most advanced stage of the season in the franchise's brief existence. This week, Brown looks to consolidate recent gains in some big games to close out the first half of the Bobcats' schedule. Tonight in Charlotte, Miami comes a-callin', and a win over the Heat will plant Charlotte as the fifth-seed du jour in the East standings. An even bigger test comes Friday, when Charlotte visits division-leading Atlanta in the first of three remaining games between the teams. Say what you will about the past personnel decisions of Michael Jordan and his braintrust, but ever since Brown came on board, the Bobcats have been much more focused about building a certain kind of team. Doesn't matter which kind, any will do, just as long as a guiding philosophy is at work. Jordan and Rod Higgins deserve credit for the Stephen Jackson trade, the best in-season acquisition in the league so far this season.

17. (17) Toronto Raptors (42.0 / 0.1%) [ 42 / 37 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 17; OFF: 5; DEF: 30; PACE: 13

18. (15) New Orleans Hornets (40.3 / 0.0%) [ 44 / 36 / 44 ]
Rankings: NET: 18; OFF: 16; DEF: 20; PACE: 20

Look who hasn't thrown in the towel. The Hornets had won eight of 10 and 11 of 16 before losing Monday against San Antonio. Several of those wins came on the road, a couple of them even against good teams like the Jazz and Thunder. Chris Paul has re-entered the top ten on the Wins Produced leaderboard, with a full-season pace of 17.4 wins. That's well off last season's other-wordly figure of 28.4, but he's still overcoming those early missed games. Paul's value stats would look even better if not for some shaky defensive indicators. NBAPET rates Paul as a -3 defender for the 2009-10 season, well off the +1 he was assigned in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10. During New Orleans' surge, the offense was a little better, but the defense improved by 4.5 points per 100 possessions. Perhaps any perceived defensive problems regarding Paul are self-correcting.

19. (20) Milwaukee Bucks (35.4 / 0.0%) [ 34 / 36 / 26 ]
Rankings: NET: 21; OFF: 26; DEF: 10; PACE: 10

I must agree with sentiment expressed by colleague Kevin Pelton regarding Milwaukee's signing this week of way-over-the-hill Jerry Stackhouse for the remainder of the season. While Stackhouse may indeed provide a marginal upgrade over Jodie Meeks, I find it hard to believe that there aren't any number of D-League prospects that could do just as well and might even turn out to be worth keeping beyond this season. Kevin's translations would point towards Mark Tyndale or Tony Bobbitt. In any event, Milwaukee finally finished its rugged road trip in Houston on Monday and looks to get back on track with some upcoming home games. Joe Alexander is expected to return this week and the next few months are crucial to both his career and to the Bucks, who already made the decision to let Alexander become a restricted free agent after the season. Given Milwaukee's murky cap position, Alexander is going to have to show them something in order to return next season.

20. (23) Chicago Bulls (34.8 / 0.0%) [ 38 / 31 / 45 ]
Rankings: NET: 22; OFF: 28; DEF: 8; PACE: 17

It was a huge week for the Bulls, who blew out Detroit, won in Boston and outlasted the Wizards in running their winning streak to four games. Chicago crawled within two games of .500 at that point, but laid an egg in the opener of its road trip Monday in Golden State. That started a stretch of seven straight games away from the United Center and nine out of 10. Particularly noxious is a six-day period beginning Friday in which the Bulls play at Phoenix, Houston, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Ouch. Coinciding with the rough schedule is a nasty flu-bug sweeping the team. Kirk Hinrich missed the Golden State game with the flu, then replacement John Salmons spent the night in the hospital with the same illness after scoring 25 points in 42 minutes against the Warriors. Add to all of this the Tracy McGrady trade rumors that won't die and the temporary peace that Vinny Del Negro found may soon be obliterated.

21. (19) Los Angeles Clippers (34.1 / 0.0%) [ 35 / 32 / 27 ]
Rankings: NET: 20; OFF: 22; DEF: 18; PACE: 21

There were rumors that Marcus Camby was on the trading block. Then it was announced that Blake Griffin would miss the rest of his rookie season. Then there were rumors that Camby had been removed from the trading block. Let's take a leap of faith and assume that Mike Dunleavy was indeed trying to deal Camby, who is still among the league's top rebounders and shot blockers, and then changed his mind in hopes of maximizing the Clips' shot at the postseasn. Camby's defense and passing skills plus his expiring contract would presumably make him an attractive acquistion to a contending team. Portland in particular leaps to mind. The Clippers won't be retaining Camby, not with Chris Kaman around, Griffin returning next season and DeAndre Jordan showing promise. This year's Clippers are a longshot for the playoffs without Griffin and perhaps would be even if the top pick were healthy considering the emergence of Oklahoma City and Memphis. So my question is simple: Why in the world wouldn't Dunleavy seek to get whatever he could for Camby?

22. (21) New York Knicks (33.6 / 0.0%) [ 32 / 36 / 31 ]
Rankings: NET: 19; OFF: 19; DEF: 19; PACE: 9

By the time Darko Milicic is safely delivered back to the other side of the pond to resume the active part of his basketball career, there may never be a player more soured by his NBA experience. The poor guy. Milicic of late has grumbled about having to travel with a team that clearly has no use for him. He wants to leave, but he also wants the money his contract dictates he is to "earn". No matter what has happened to relegate a player to that status, you have to feel for him. At least the Pacers told Jamaal Tinsley just to stay away. Matt Harpring isn't required to set up a locker at the Ford Center. I've seen one of these hopelessly inactive players this season sitting in the corner of one team's locker room after a game. All around him were worn out teammates in various stages of undress, while this player sat in well-tailored suit looking as fresh as a daisy. The team was headed straight for the airport after the game and a locker room attendant came over to pick up the player's travel bag. The player look guilt-stricken, with a look on his face that said, "Geez, I might as well do that myself." Free Darko. Someone should start a Web site.

23. (22) Sacramento Kings (31.2 / 0.0%) [ 31 / 33 / 30 ]
Rankings: NET: 23; OFF: 15; DEF: 24; PACE: 6

There are whisperings that Kevin Martin is on the trading block. The whispers may be wrong, but I still feel I must opine on this matter. It'd be a huge mistake to trade Martin, the league's most efficient perimeter scorer among high-usage players, without giving a Martin/Tyreke Evans backcourt a sustained audition. Martin has been back for three games now and the Kings have lost all three, but those defeats have come on the road. Two of the losses weren't pretty--at Philly and at Washington, but let's give this thing a chance. The last of the Kings' losses came Monday at Charlotte. The Bobcats are of course riding a crest wave and only three teams have won more home wins. Charlotte is a tough place to play, but the Kings made the 'Cats work for it before falling by two points. Martin isn't going to get the 20-30 shots per game he was sometimes taking before he was injured, so he needs to learn how to complement Evans. Early in the season, vice versa was probably the case. These things take time and the Kings have plenty of that to develop their future chemistry.

24. (26) Philadelphia 76ers (30.0 / 0.0%) [ 27 / 32 / 40 ]
Rankings: NET: 24; OFF: 17; DEF: 26; PACE: 25

No matter where you fall in the debate about how much Allen Iverson really helps his teams wins, you have to admit that the guy is fun to watch. I still believe that even watching him in a diminished capacity, struggling with Eddie Jordan's offense on a floundering team. Iverson is always on offense. As opponents work their offensive sets, Iverson is always leaning towards the offensive end, the way a basestealer is always leaning towards second base. When the shot goes up, he moves into position for an outlet pass, watching the action like a vulture as the other nine players on the court battle for the loose ball. As much as anything, Iverson is an opportunist. I can identify with that.

25. (24) Washington Wizards (28.8 / 0.0%) [ 27 / 30 / 26 ]
Rankings: NET: 25; OFF: 23; DEF: 21; PACE: 11

The Wizards started their six-game homestand with wins over Sacramento and Portland, so you have to admire the chutzpah of a team that could have very easily thrown in the towel. One beneficiary of Gilbert Arenas' departure is DeShawn Stevenson, whose playing time has been sporadic this season. Stevenson still plays solid defense, but the shooting woes that sent him to the bench last season haven't abated. In fact, they've gotten worse. Stevenson's one-time proficiency from the three-point land made him a reasonable enough alternative as a low-usage defensive specialist. He's 9-of-46 from beyond the arc this season. With more playing time, perhaps Stevenson can regain his stroke. If he does, it will be at least one happy story for a team that sure seems to be sending out a lot more press releases regarding its players' community efforts lately.

26. (27) Detroit Pistons (28.6 / 0.0%) [ 29 / 26 / 44 ]
Rankings: NET: 28; OFF: 24; DEF: 22; PACE: 29

The Pistons won three in a row before falling to the Knicks in an early Martin Luther King's Day game. Detroit now has six straight at the Palace of Auburn Hills, a homestand that carries with it any remaining hopes for a Pistons playoff run. Indiana is the only sub-.500 team in that stretch, so it's not going to be easy. The first game is tonight against Boston before that game was even tipped off, new came down that the Pistons' task was again being complicated by their ongoing battle with injuries. Will Bynum, Tayshaun Prince and Ben Broden were all expected to miss the battle with the Celtics, who were likely playing their last game before Kevin Garnett's return. It's just been that kind of season for first-year coach John Kuester. If the homestand doesn't go well, it'll be interesting to see how aggressive Joe Dumars gets on the trade front and how much, if at all, Kuester alters his distribution of minutes.

27. (25) Golden State Warriors (27.2 / 0.0%) [ 23 / 29 / 35 ]
Rankings: NET: 27; OFF: 21; DEF: 29; PACE: 1

Before the season, I thought Stephen Curry would be in a race with Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year honors but he's been slower to adapt to the NBA game that I figured. However, he does seem to be developing. So far in January, he's averaged over 17 points over eight games while shooting 18-of-31 from three-point land. Curry's usage is getting swamped by backcourt mate Monta Ellis, who took 39 shots in a regular game on Monday. Curry is being too deferential, but since Ellis doesn't show any signs of ebbing his shooting tide, there isn't much that can be done. This is a coaching issue. The Warriors would be more effective if there was better balance amongst their guards. An exceptional ballhandler, Curry has a nifty crossover move in which he goes through the legs in order to beat defenders going to his right. With Ellis around, we just don't see that move often enough.

28. (28) Indiana Pacers (26.1 / 0.0%) [ 28 / 28 / 38 ]
Rankings: NET: 26; OFF: 27; DEF: 16; PACE: 2

The Pacers responded to the keystroke lashing I gave them in last week's list with two exceptional offensive performances in wins over Phoenix and New Jersey, before returning to form against New Orleans. Part of the improvement might be due to Jim O'Brien's lineup tweaking meant to put more floor spacers on the court at one time. He started Troy Murphy at center in one game in favor of Roy Hibbert and also demoted Dahntay Jones, who was surprisingly solid in the intial portion of his first season with Indiana. Jones has been an interesting player so far for the Pacers. Signed away from Denver, where he was a low-usage defensive specialist, Jones has become much more assertive on the offensive end for Indiana. Luckily for the Pacers, he's been aggressive at taking the ball to the basket, resulting in a +2 skill rating for drawing fouls. Unfortunately, that hasn't been enough for Jones to maintain his offensive efficiency at an acceptable level given his new rate of usage. Thus, the bench.

29. (29) Minnesota Timberwolves (16.5 / 0.0%) [ 16 / 16 / 32 ]
Rankings: NET: 29; OFF: 29; DEF: 25; PACE: 4Jonny Flynn has drawn plaudits far and wide in his rookie season, and even before given the superlatives that emerged from his performance in the summer leagues. Flynn is far from a finished product, however, and ranks behind fellow rookie guards Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, Ty Lawson and James Harden in my system and just barely ahead of rapidly-improving Stephen Curry. Flynn is still more of a slasher than a shooter and more of a scorer than a passer, traits which frankly make him seem like an awkward fit in Kurt Rambis' version of the Triangle Offense. You almost wish Flynn had been drafted into a more conventional system in order to better isolate the areas in which he needs the most work. As it is, he's excellent in the open floor, a fact which helps salvage what has been an up-and-down rookie season.

30. (30) New Jersey Nets (9.3 / 0.0%) [ 6 / 12 / 40 ]
Rankings: NET: 30; OFF: 30; DEF: 27; PACE: 18

You know things are bad when losing by single digits is a moral victory. Welcome to the world of the '09-10 New Jersey Nets, who are threatening to become basketball's version of baseball's '62 Mets. During the Nets' current eight-game losing streak, their third streak at least that long already this season, six of the losses have been by double digits or worse. That's nothing new. The Nets have lost 25 games by 10 points or more this season. The Nets' next three games are on the road and you wouldn't think them likely to win any of them, which would leave New Jersey with a 3-40 record. After that, the Nets have four winnable home games in a row, against the Clippers, Wizards, Sixers and Pistons. If the Nets can't eke out some Ws by the end of that homestand, the race with the '72-73 76ers is on.

Definitions:

RANKINGS: NET = net efficiency ratio; OFF - offensive efficiency; DEF - defensive efficiency; PACE: average possessions per game

Adjusted winning percentage (AWP) = ((home wins x 0.6)+(road wins x 1.4)) / (((home wins x 0.6)+(road wins x 1.4)) + ((home losses x .1.4)+(road losses x 0.6)))

Championship probability (CHAM) = percent of championships won out of 10,000 simulations of the "as of today" playoff bracket, based on each team's POW

Opponents winning percentage (OWP) = aggregate percentage of games won for each team's opponents, based on the number of times the team has faced that opponent.

Playoff Potential (POT) = suggests the highest likely postseason round a team might advance to, based on comparing its POW to other teams in our database

Power rating (POW) = (((PYTH + AWP)/2)*(OWP/.500)) x 82

Pythagorean winning percentage (PYTH) = uses the basketball-reference formula of Games x (Points scored^14) / ((Points scored^14) + (Points allowed^14))

WP82 = wins produced per 82 games, adjusted for playing time

WP3K = wins produced per 3,000 minutes

SKILL RATINGS: player performance is quantitatively tracked in a variety of categories that represent a cross-section of basketball skills; in each category, the player's performance is measured against others at his position, then slotted in a league-wide percentile ranking. The percentile ranking is converted to an intergral rating between +5 and -5, with 0 being average. Skill ratings are tracked for overall production (TOT), offensive production (OFF), on-ball defensive ability (DEF), overall rebounding (REB), passing (PAS), ballhandling (HND), shooting (SHT), athleticism (ATH), foul-drawing (FOU), blocks-plus-steals (BPS).

Statistical Plus Minus (SPM): measures a players net effect in points per 100 team possessions.

You can follow Bradford on Twitter at @bdoolittle.

Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.