February 22, 2011
Transaction Analysis
Anthony to the Big Apple

by Kevin Pelton

Denver Nuggets

Traded guards Chauncey Billups and Anthony Carter and forwards Carmelo Anthony, Renaldo Balkman and Shelden Williams to the New York Knicks as part of a three-team trade in exchange for guard Raymond Felton, forwards Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, center Timofey Mozgov, a 2014 first-round pick, 2012 and 2013 second-round picks, both from Golden State, and cash considerations. [2/21]

Let's give it up for Masai Ujiri. Anthony's impending free agency and ability to control any trade negotiations with his leverage (whether or not he would sign an extension) put the Denver Nuggets' rookie executive vice president of basketball operations in a difficult spot as he negotiated the first trade of his career as a decision maker. Ujiri was criticized at times for the slow pace of progress, but that ultimately proved worthwhile as the Nuggets were able to get just about everything they wanted out of this deal.

Someone in the know told me months ago that the biggest key for Denver was being able to move Billups along with Anthony. To rebuild, the Nuggets needed to deal the veteran point guard before facing a decision on whether to fully guarantee his contract for the 2011-12 season. By including Billups in the Anthony deal, Denver would bury the storyline of the hometown star getting traded away. So the first key to making this deal work was that whoever landed Anthony was going to have to agree to take Billups as well, giving up their starting point guard in the process.

A second goal for the Nuggets was making the deal work financially. The real key from this standpoint is the savings this season. The Nuggets could have made a two-team deal with the Knicks work. By involving the Minnesota Timberwolves and pawning off the expiring contract of center Eddy Curry, Denver shed some $17.7 million in salary. That's more than enough to get them below the luxury-tax threshold of $70.3 million.

This season, then, the Nuggets made out big-time financially. The difference in payroll the rest of the year is more than $5 million. Add $13 million in luxury tax plus the amount Denver will pocket in other teams' luxury-tax payments and cash from the Knicks and we're talking somewhere near $25 million to the Nuggets' bottom line. Given that Denver is now unlikely to make the playoffs, that's a critical amount of savings.

The downside is that the Nuggets were unable to move the long-term contract of forward Al Harrington, a nice enough player who is entirely worthless for a rebuilding team. Harrington is now one of three contracts Denver has that extends past the summer of 2012, the others being centers Mozgov and Chris Andersen. If the Nuggets can somehow pawn off either Andersen or Harrington in a future deal--and Denver is nowhere near done with three days left before the deadline--they will have tremendous financial flexibility.

The last question is what the Nuggets are building on going forward. An underlying theme of all the trade rumors has been that Denver would acquire either Felton or Devin Harris strictly as an asset to be flipped elsewhere. The Nuggets believe in Ty Lawson as their starting point guard, and nothing Lawson has done in his first two pro seasons indicates they are mistaken. Gallinari becomes Denver's other cornerstone piece. Still not yet 23 and with another season remaining on his rookie contract, he has the potential to develop into a borderline All-Star piece. SCHOENE sees a lot of upside for Gallinari.

Beyond that, the Nuggets have a lot of question marks. Chandler has thrived this season, but is poised to cash in as a restricted free agent and previously struggled with his efficiency. Denver may have one wing too many now that holdover Arron Afflalo has established himself as one of the league's top role players. Afflalo too will be a restricted free agent, so there will be some choices to be made by Ujiri and company.

The biggest concern going forward is that the Nuggets don't appear to have a centerpiece who can replace Anthony as a go-to scorer on offense. Denver is also thin in the frontcourt. Ujiri told NBA.com's David Aldridge Monday night that the Nuggets insisted on Mozgov to keep him, not to trade him, but thus far his performance has yet to suggest he's anything more than a spare piece. That's all Denver has at power forward and center at the moment.

What remains to be seen is how much Denver can get back for the other players it is likely to deal by Thursday. Nenê should command a solid return in the midst of a terrific season, while Felton could also be coveted and J.R. Smith may fetch something from a team looking for bench scoring. This is only the first step in the Nuggets' rebuilding, and we will have a far clearer picture of Denver's direction in a few days. For now, this is a strong first step toward that ultimate goal.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Traded guard Corey Brewer to the New York Knicks as part of a three-team trade in exchange for forward Anthony Randolph, center Eddy Curry and cash considerations. [2/21]

This is basically the quintessential David Kahn trade. Using his team's cap space, the Timberwolves' GM involved himself in a bigger deal in order to take a chance on a prodigious talent who comes with serious question marks.

From Minnesota's perspective, there is little downside here. Brewer was likely already on his way out because of an inability to separate himself from a logjam of backup-caliber wings that includes Wayne Ellington, Martell Webster and (for the time being) rookie Wesley Johnson. Since Michael Beasley has settled in at small forward, the Timberwolves had just 64 minutes a night available for the four players. Given upgrading shooting guard figures to be one of Minnesota's offseason priorities, that number could soon be cut even smaller.

The Timberwolves actually come out ahead financially on this trade because the Knicks sent over $3 million to cover nearly all of what is remaining on Curry's contract, per Howard Beck of the New York Times. So the only real question is how this compares to other alternative uses of the Timberwolves' cap space. Minnesota probably could have gotten a late first-round pick to take on contracts from a team like the Portland Trail Blazers that has a chance to get under the tax threshold. As compared to that kind of a pick, Randolph has far more upside.

That Randolph has been unable to earn playing time under a second head coach--and one less manic than Don Nelson--has tempered my assessment of his potential, but the raw talent is still there. The Timberwolves have been able to get more out of enigmas like Beasley and Darko Milicic by believing in them and letting them play; Randolph could be next. This is exactly the kind of swing for the fences I suggested in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010-11 that Kahn needs to take to add more elite talent. He did very well to involve himself in this deal and do so without having to give up a first-round pick or any asset more valuable than Brewer.

New York Knicks

Traded guard Raymond Felton, forwards Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, center Timofey Mozgov, a 2014 first-round pick, 2012 and 2013 second-round picks, both from Golden State, and cash considerations to the Denver Nuggets and forward Anthony Randolph, center Eddy Curry and cash considerations to the Minnesota Timberwolves as part of a three-team trade in exchange for guards Chauncey Billups, Corey Brewer and Anthony Carter and forwards Carmelo Anthony, Renaldo Balkman and Shelden Williams. [2/21]

I have a general view on NBA trades that I know is not shared by everyone, especially among the group that obsesses over the minutiae we highlight in Transaction Analysis breakdowns: Ultimately, the price you pay isn't as important as the quality of the asset you get. That's why I tend to think it's a good thing that the Knicks did not let Timofey Mozgov stand between them and Anthony. If Anthony is as good as New York believes, all the picks and bit players in the world aren't going to make a difference.

So is Anthony worth that kind of faith? Seven months after the process began that led to this trade, I'm still not sure. I'm confident that Anthony is not one of the 10 best players in the league because of his defensive deficiencies. I'm also certain that the value of his ability to create shots for himself (as reflected, in part, in his teammates' scoring efficiency) means that he is an elite offensive player and an above-average player overall. There's an important gulf between those two extreme positions, and where Anthony really belongs will determine the ultimate success or failure of the Knicks.

I also think we have to draw a distinction between the merits of this deal in the short term and how it will play out over the next five years. As constructed, it's nigh impossible to see New York threatening any of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference this season. The gap is much too large, while the Knicks must address a significant positional imbalance. Dealing Mozgov does leave Ronny Turiaf as the only true center on the roster. When Amar'e Stoudemire slides into the middle, it's unclear who will play power forward: Anthony? Shawne Williams? Shelden Williams? Meanwhile, depending how you classify Balkman and rookie Andy Rautins, New York has between seven and nine wings on its 15-player roster. The Knicks could badly use another trade sending out Brewer or Bill Walker for an equivalent 7-footer.

Over the longer term, what we're pondering is the kind of team New York can put around its three-player core of Anthony, Stoudemire and Landry Fields. The Knicks' reluctance to part with their rookie wing confirms his importance to the team. I think Gallinari is the better prospect and has more upside, but Fields makes more sense as a complementary piece to the Anthony-Stoudemire duo, which figures to use more than 60 percent of New York's plays combined. With his .615 True Shooting Percentage and .130 usage rate, Fields is the perfect kind of efficient role player to put next to them.

One issue is what happens at the point. For now, Billups is a better player than Felton, though he will face some major adjustments in Mike D'Antoni's system. Not only does Billups tend to thrive in the open court, he has never played with a pick-and-roll threat like Stoudemire. According to Synergy Sports, Billups has been involved in pick-and-roll plays less than half as frequently this season as Felton. The counterpoint is that Billups is a more efficient option as a shooter out of the pick-and-roll and has been just fine playing with one of the league's fastest-paced teams in Denver.

The biggest difference is that Felton is 26 and still growing, while Billups the Knicks have to be wary of Billups falling off a cliff at 34. As an expiring contract, Billups could have value next season, especially if New York has the chance to put together a package to acquire one of the elite point guards who can become free agents in the summer of 2012, Chris Paul and Deron Williams. If the Knicks add one of the league's best point guards, this group has the potential to be one of the most efficient offenses in NBA history.

Success at the other end of the court may be difficult. Building around two poor defenders is a tough challenge. That's why Turiaf is so important to New York now--the Knicks allow 6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, per BasketballValue.com. But Turiaf is stretched beyond about 20 minutes a night and this group figures to get torched with Stoudemire in the middle.

At some point, New York has to find another defensive anchor who can contribute at both ends. The Knicks will be limited in that pursuit by the salaries commanded by Anthony and Stoudemire. Just how much of an impediment that will be depends on what plays out with the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. The luxury tax obviously isn't an issue in New York, but a harder cap with few exceptions might keep the Knicks from adding talent and a franchise tag could keep Paul and Williams at home. One reservoir that is unlikely to dry up, as Hoopdata.com's Joe Treutlein pointed out on Twitter, is New York's ability to buy first-round picks to replace the ones dealt in this trade and last year's deadline deal with Houston.

Ultimately, my suspicion is that your perspective on the Anthony-Stoudemire era will depend on how you define NBA success. The Knicks might get good enough to advance as deep as the Eastern Conference Finals at times, but never any further than that. If you believe that championship are all that matter in the NBA, it's easy to be cynical about this trade. Even with Paul or Williams, the Knicks might not be able to match the triumvirate in Miami, let alone the more balanced antidotes developing in Chicago and Oklahoma City or the established powers in Boston and L.A.

I'm not sure what alternative move would have gotten New York to the point of being a favorite, however. I don't consider waiting for Anthony to become a free agent an acceptable answer, since that was a tremendous risk given the uncertainty around a new CBA that could have given the Nuggets the right to franchise Anthony or made it impossible for the Knicks to sign him outright. Meanwhile, New York would have sacrificed Chandler and Randolph to clear the requisite cap space, so the most pessimistic perspective possible is that moving now cost them Gallinari and Mozgov.

Beyond that, I can't offer a firm conclusion. Anyone who tells you that this deal is either an A+ or an F is peddling false certainty. There is too much we don't know yet about what the league will look like six months from now, let alone five years from now, to define this trade hours after it happens.

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Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.