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Kevin Pelton author archives.

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November 12, 2012

Premium Article Graphing the NBA: Early Ratings

by Kevin Pelton

A graphical look at how teams have performed early in the 2012-13 season shows some surprising trends so far.

November 9, 2012

What Brown Couldn't Do: Rotation, D Justified Firing

by Kevin Pelton

The Lakers may have decided to fire Mike Brown before he got a full chance to coach their new, star-studded roster, but Brown's baffling rotations and inability to coax an average defensive performance out of the team justified the early move.

Premium Article A Look Back: Mehmet Okur

by Kevin Pelton

On Thursday, longtime Utah Jazz center Mehmet Okur, now out of the league, announced his retirement from professional basketball. Okur leaves a legacy as arguably the greatest stretch five in NBA history.

November 8, 2012

Premium Article Stuckey's Slump: A Historically Slow Start

by Kevin Pelton

Detroit guard Rodney Stuckey made just one of his first 23 shots this season and is still struggling from the field. The math shows just how unlikely Stuckey's poor shooting has been.

November 7, 2012

Calling the Race: The Reliability of Early Returns

by Kevin Pelton

Just like our political peers, NBA analysts must separate misleading early results from ones that herald meaningful results. How quickly can we do so at the team level?

November 6, 2012

Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Unextended

by Kevin Pelton

Wrapping up a series on last Wednesday's deadline for business related to rookie contracts, a look at the key fourth-year players who did not see their contracts extended and what comes next for player and team.

November 5, 2012

Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Rookie Options

by Kevin Pelton

Teams had to decide by last Wednesday whether to pick up their options on the third and fourth seasons of players' rookie contracts. A surprising number of 2010 first-round picks will now become unrestricted free agents next summer.

November 2, 2012

Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Evaluating Extensions

by Kevin Pelton

Wednesday was the deadline for teams to agree on contract extensions for players entering the final season of their rookie contracts. Using the past relationship between WARP and extension salary, a look at several fair deals and one that looks like trouble.

November 1, 2012

Lakers Concerns: Evaluating Fixability

by Kevin Pelton

Two games into the Steve Nash/Dwight Howard era, the Lakers are 0-2. It's too early to panic, but it's not too early to consider some of their biggest issues and how likely they are to be fixed.

October 31, 2012

Premium Article Scary Start: Miami's Offense Shines

by Kevin Pelton

In the debut of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis in Heat jerseys, the defending champs scorched the nets in a season-opening win over Boston that confirms Miami's role as the favorite to repeat.

October 30, 2012

SCHOENE on 2012-13: Final Projections

by Kevin Pelton

After injuries and the last-minute James Harden trade, SCHOENE's final projections on the morning of the 2012-13 season emphasize the uncertainty at the start of the new campaign.

October 29, 2012

Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Harden to Houston

by Kevin Pelton

The Oklahoma City Thunder shook up the Western Conference by dealing James Harden to the Houston Rockets days before the start of the season, raising questions about the urgency to make a move with the impending free agent.

October 26, 2012

Premium Article Four's a Crowd: Utah's Frontcourt

by Kevin Pelton

With a slimmed-down Enes Kanter delivering the best preseason of any player in the NBA, the Utah Jazz suddenly has four talented big men in need of playing time. With both starters hitting free agency next summer, the Jazz faces intriguing decisions.

October 25, 2012

Premium Article Preseason Leaders: Advanced Stats

by Kevin Pelton

Using our set of advanced statistics, which players and teams have performed the best during the preseason so far?

October 24, 2012

Premium Article Ibaka for Three: Serge's New Element

by Kevin Pelton

During the preseason, Oklahoma City forward Serge Ibaka has flashed three-point range. The rare evolution could help the Thunder offense.

October 22, 2012

Valuing the Preseason: A Bayesian Approach

by Kevin Pelton

Writing off the preseason as entirely meaningless would be a mistake, as is getting seduced by the first time we've seen NBA players in action in months. The real value of the preseason lies in using its results to sharpen--or blur--preexisting conclusions.

October 19, 2012

SCHOENE FAQ: Our Projections Explained

by Kevin Pelton

This essay, reprinted from this year's Pro Basketball Prospectus, answers some of the common questions readers have about our SCHOENE Projection System.

August 10, 2012

Transaction Analysis: Possible Howard Trade

by Kevin Pelton

Using SCHOENE's multi-year projections, a breakdown of what each team gained and lost in the reported four-team trade that will finally send Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers. Did the Orlando Magic get enough for Howard?

August 9, 2012

Olympic Ratings: Quarterfinals

by Kevin Pelton

With the final four teams set in London, a look at how they have rated during the Olympics thus far and a projection of their chances of advancing and medaling Friday and Sunday.

August 7, 2012

Olympic Ratings: Group Play

by Kevin Pelton

Rating the performance of the 12 teams in London during group play.

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